Here's a puzzle from today's Times (it's a few pages after the article with me in, incidentally):
Guy in The Times wrote:Let's play a game. I'll toss a coin. If the first three tosses come up heads, heads, tails, I'll pay you £20. However, if it's tails, heads, heads, then you pay me £10. Should you play?
Well, unless I'm utterly confused, the answer is obviously yes. But our friend at the Times disagrees.
Guy in The Times wrote:Answer: No. It is three times more likely that tails, heads, heads appears. THere are four possibilities for the opening two tosses: heads, heads; heads, tails; tails, heads; tails, tails. In the case of heads, heads, I can't beat you. You just have to wait for a tail to appear. However, in the other three cases you can't beat me. The first occurrence of heads, heads must be preceded by a tail, giving me the win.
Well clearly this is bollocks and the answer to some quite different question. The meta-puzzle is, assuming the answer is correct, what puzzle was actually intended?