CoC XVI discussion

[L'oisleatch McGraw]

As the draw has not been officially released, this thread belongs in the spoilers section, I guess.
But filming starts today, and here is what we have:-

1. Florence CL ~vs~ Leo S
2. Elliott M ~vs~ Dinos S
3. Ahmed M ~vs~ Eddy B
4. Tom S ~vs~ Adam L
5. Stu H ~vs~ James H
6. Luke JD ~vs~ Martin M
7. Dan B ~vs~ Steve H
8. Matt O'C ~vs~ Sam CL

Then it proceeds mathematically with Winner #1 playing winner #8, and so on.

From this, one finalist should come from TOP HALF:-
Florence, Leo, Matt, Sam, Tom, Adam, Stu, James.

The second finalist should come from BOTTOM HALF:-
Elliott, Dinos, Dan, Steve, Ahmed, Eddy, Luke.

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According to their TV Octorun performances, the players should be seeded as follows:-
1. Elliott Mellor (bottom)
2. Eddy Byrne (bottom)
3. Tom Stevenson (top)
4. Ahmed Mohammed (bottom)
5. Luke Johnson-Davies (bottom)
6. Sam Cappleman-Lynes (top)
7. Dan Byrom (bottom)
8. Matt O'Connor (top)
9. James Haughton (top)
10. Dinos Sfyris (bottom)
11. Florence Cappleman-Lynes (top)
12. Leo Smith (top)
13. Stu Harkness (top)
14. Martin May (bottom)
15. Steve Hyde (bottom)
16. Adam Latchford (top)

.

However, if you factor in other metrics, such as their actual performance in the series finals, and their recent form (based on Apterous and co-events), you get a more realistic seeding as follows:-

1. Ahmed Mohammed (bottom)
2. Tom Stevenson (top)
3. Sam Cappleman-Lynes (top)
4. Eddy Byrne (bottom)
5. Luke Johnson-Davies (bottom)
6. Elliott Mellor (bottom)
7. Florence Cappleman-Lynes (top)
8. Dan Byrom (bottom)
9. Dinos Sfyris (bottom)
10. Matt O'Connor (top)
11. James Haughton (top)
12. Stu Harkness (top)
13. Leo Smith (top)
14. Martin May (bottom)
15. Steve Hyde (bottom)
16. Adam Latchford (top)


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So, as you can see, by either of the seedings, the BOTTOM half is slightly stronger. However, unlike with the previous CoC which placed the top 6 seeds in the same half... this one cannot be accused of putting the "real final" in RD1 (i.e. Zarte vs Paul from 2019)

I dunno if it was by design, or merely coincidental, but either way, it is a big thumbs up from me on the curation of the draw. This should be a good 'un!

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So who's your winner?!
For me:- I am really unsure. I reckon conundrum speed is going to make a huge difference, and the ability to hold ones nerve. Based on that, my money might be on Sam overall.

[Gavin Chipper]

Well based on totals from octoruns, this would be the seedings, which is quite different from your list, Eoin. I'm not sure if you've looked at maxes or what, but the show certainly wouldn't do anything like that if they were making a seeding list.

1. Elliott Mellor (1061)
2. Luke Johnson-Davies (1024)
3. Tom Stevenson (1000)
4. Eddy Byrne (969)
5. Dan Byrom (967)
6. James Haughton (958)
7. Matt O'Connor (949)
8. Sam Cappleman-Lynes (939)
9. Ahmed Mohamed (927)
10. Dinos Sfyris (918)
11. Stu Harkness (886)
12. Leo Smith (869)
13. Florence Cappleman-Lynes (860)
14. Martin May (839)
15. Steve Hyde (806)
16. Adam Latchford (732)

Of course, they would be likely to look at the knockout stages as well anyway. Not including anything from the current series, which hasn't been shown, Luke Johnson-Davies is the highest scoring xicount, and scored more points than even Elliott over 11 games, so he should be the unequivocal number 1 seed if they were doing seedings. Obviously I'm not looking at Apterous or anything like that. Of the xicounts (still not including this series) it would be:

1. Luke Johnson-Davies (1384)
2. James Haughton (1328)
3. Ahmed Mohamed (1302)
4. Dan Byrom (1251)
5. Dinos Sfyris (1242)
6. Adam Latchford (1014)

And then you might do the rest in terms how far they reached followed by points, so Elliott would be next. Purely done on points, Elliott would be second behind Luke.

[L'oisleatch McGraw]

% max achieved, (though still by no means a perfect metric) is a more reliable indicator of talent than the amount of points scored.
That's where my list comes from.

If you go with your Octototal list... 4 of the top 5 are BOTTOMS.
Shows the bottom half is defo stronger, but as I don't value your list as reflecting the true seeding for this tourney, I am pretty pleased with the draw as is.

[L'oisleatch McGraw]

Heard a rumour the draw had to be altered at the last minute, as did the list of players (congrats Fiona!)...
...so that may change things a little!

Anyone have the actual draw?