COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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Rhys Benjamin
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Rhys Benjamin »

How is Peston still in a job!? This is a crime against basic statistics. https://www.itv.com/news/2021-09-11/pes ... non-vaxxed

(in case it's not immediately obvious, if I have 100 people, 90 of whom are vaccinated, then of course there's going to be more vaccinated people in hospital than unvaccinated... deary me)
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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Rhys Benjamin wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:48 pm How is Peston still in a job!? This is a crime against basic statistics. https://www.itv.com/news/2021-09-11/pes ... non-vaxxed

(in case it's not immediately obvious, if I have 100 people, 90 of whom are vaccinated, then of course there's going to be more vaccinated people in hospital than unvaccinated... deary me)
Unless I'm misunderstanding the data, the table does show rates among vaccinated/unvaccinated, meaning it accounts for the fact that more people are vaccinated than not, and still shows that in certain age groups vaccinated people seem more likely to have it than unvaccinated people, so your analysis of it doesn't really work.

Although it doesn't take in to account that many people who are unvaccinated are so for a reason and miggjt be shielding or something, making them less likely to come into contact with the virus.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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Rhys Benjamin wrote: Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:48 pm How is Peston still in a job!? This is a crime against basic statistics. https://www.itv.com/news/2021-09-11/pes ... non-vaxxed

(in case it's not immediately obvious, if I have 100 people, 90 of whom are vaccinated, then of course there's going to be more vaccinated people in hospital than unvaccinated... deary me)
I think that last two columns are what you need to look at - e.g In the 40-49 age group, for every 100,000 people that have been double vaccinated, 1,116.2 have caught covid. For every 100,000 people who have not been vaccinated, 880.4 have caught covid - the comparison seems fair, although, as Callum says, other factors may have some effect. He doesn't mention hospitalisation figures unless the article has changed since you read it, but we can see they're nowhere near what they were last time infections were at this level. https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

Anecdotally, I've been surprised how many of my double vaxxed friends seem to have caught it recently - my conclusion is that you're not really less likely to catch it, but you are much less likely to be hospitalised.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-57928647.amp

Interesting story this. Some company tried to pay YouTube influencers to spread Covid misinformation. I wonder what would have happened if you took their money but didn't read out what they wanted.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Matt Morrison »

Callum Todd wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:09 am many people who are unvaccinated are so for a reason and miggjt be shielding or something
My favourite bit of temporary Danish on the forum thus far.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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Matt Morrison wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 3:18 pm
Callum Todd wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 5:09 am many people who are unvaccinated are so for a reason and miggjt be shielding or something
My favourite bit of temporary Danish on the forum thus far.
Or
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Miggit
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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I always found the claim that wearing a mask doesn't protect you from COVID-19, but only other people from you, slightly strange. It's a physical barrier for the germy particles and even if it works better one way, it should still work a bit the other way. Anyway, I found this and this (and a few other things). It's clear I was right all along. I'm surprised they don't push this angle to get more people to wear them.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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Gavin Chipper wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:07 pm I always found the claim that wearing a mask doesn't protect you from COVID-19, but only other people from you, slightly strange. It's a physical barrier for the germy particles and even if it works better one way, it should still work a bit the other way. Anyway, I found this and this (and a few other things). It's clear I was right all along. I'm surprised they don't push this angle to get more people to wear them.
I always get a bad cold in the summer and this is the first year I haven't and I would say it's the mask wearing that's protected me
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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Gavin Chipper wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 4:07 pm I always found the claim that wearing a mask doesn't protect you from COVID-19, but only other people from you, slightly strange. It's a physical barrier for the germy particles and even if it works better one way, it should still work a bit the other way. Anyway, I found this and this (and a few other things). It's clear I was right all along. I'm surprised they don't push this angle to get more people to wear them.
Hey remember around February-April (I think that was the time frame but it might have gone on longer than that) last year when nearly all of the world's foremost health officials, including America's beloved Fauci, were telling us that masks don't work, even though they knew they did? That was fun. So I'm not really surprised that information is still confused on the effectiveness of masks.

Tried to find a link from back then to document it,
this
is the best I could find in a short space of time, as the older articles are buried under the thousands of more recent articles on this hot topic. That one links to several others from the time though so it's not bad.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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In one of the earlier briefings, Jenny Harries said that she felt masks weren’t worth it (and indeed we’ve never made them compulsory outdoors unlike others). Noticeably, she’s been conspicuous by her absence since.

Mind you, I don’t think there’s any conspiracy going on there, I just think that’s her conclusion from the data.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Gavin Chipper »

A report by MPs has concluded that the UK's early response was a failure.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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Read the report in full if you get a chance. https://committees.parliament.uk/public ... 8/default/

The report heavily leans on Dominic Cummings' evidence given earlier this year, and it's good to see that they actually listened to the insightful parts of his evidence rather than just concentrating on the political melodrama the BBC wanted to turn it into. The report suggests that Q1 2020 was bogged down in bureaucracy and procedure to get anything effective done. SAGE practically get a death sentence regarding the first wave. Whitty, Vallance, Ferguson to get the axe, I would think.
152. When the UK moved from the ‘contain’ to ‘delay’ stage, there was a policy of seeking to only moderate the speed of infection through the population—flattening the curve—rather than seeking to arrest its spread. The policy was pursued until 23 March because of the official scientific advice the Government received, not in spite of it.
The report is ambivalent about that silly "circuit breaker" idea in September/October 2020 - it didn't work in Wales, after all - and says that the Kent/Alpha variant muddied the waters somewhat on this. The variant emerged in September, but it wasn't discovered until December. I was always against the November lockdown, and I think I've been proven right that it turned out to be pointless.
156. [...] It is likely that a “circuit break” of temporary lockdown measures if introduced in September 2020, and earlier lockdown measures during the winter, could have impeded the rapid seeding and spread of the Kent variant. However, the existence of the Kent or Alpha variant was not known by the Government until 11 December 2020 so that the justification for taking earlier measures could not rely on information available at the time.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Marc Meakin »

Are, we all ready for Plan B.
I dont mean Ill Manors
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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Ed Conway’s journalism is excellent. Here he bashes it out of the park again.

https://twitter.com/edconwaysky/status/ ... 02060?s=21
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Gavin Chipper »

Face masks in shops and on public transport are coming back. Arguably they should never have gone away. A fairly minor inconvenience in the general scheme of things.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Marc Meakin »

Gavin Chipper wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:18 pm Face masks in shops and on public transport are coming back. Arguably they should never have gone away. A fairly minor inconvenience in the general scheme of things.
But if wearing a mask is a problem for you though,you are ok in a pub or restaurant.
Coincidently the latest variant is an anagram of moronic
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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Marc Meakin wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:59 am
Gavin Chipper wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:18 pm Face masks in shops and on public transport are coming back. Arguably they should never have gone away. A fairly minor inconvenience in the general scheme of things.
But if wearing a mask is a problem for you though,you are ok in a pub or restaurant.
Coincidently the latest variant is an anagram of moronic
Hard to eat or drink with a mask on.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Marc Meakin »

Gavin Chipper wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:09 am
Marc Meakin wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:59 am
Gavin Chipper wrote: Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:18 pm Face masks in shops and on public transport are coming back. Arguably they should never have gone away. A fairly minor inconvenience in the general scheme of things.
But if wearing a mask is a problem for you though,you are ok in a pub or restaurant.
Coincidently the latest variant is an anagram of moronic
Hard to eat or drink with a mask on.
Yes that was a clumsy attempt by me to illustrate the hipocrisy of the situation.
I meant that the hospitality industry including clubs and cinemas have been left out.
Also, working from home should have been on the table too.
It was a half hearted attempt at a reaction to a new variant.
I personally agree with what Kirk ( formally of this parish) said on a comment on Facebook.
To paraphrase ( can't be asked to screenshot) if you are scared of flying you find an alternative mode of transport.
If you don't want to go outside due to the risks then stay indoors.
Btw the average age of someone that dies from Covid in the UK is 82.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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Marc Meakin wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:42 am
Gavin Chipper wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:09 am
Marc Meakin wrote: Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:59 am
But if wearing a mask is a problem for you though,you are ok in a pub or restaurant.
Coincidently the latest variant is an anagram of moronic
Hard to eat or drink with a mask on.
I meant that the hospitality industry including clubs and cinemas have been left out.
I do find this a bit strange. In a supermarket, the chance of coming into close contact with someone (at least in my case) is virtually nought. I would wager that it personally makes very little difference whether I've got a mask on or not because I'm not coming in close enough proximity to anyone that I could be a potential spreader. People simply don't bunch tightly when they're doing their shopping, and in fact I reiterate my point that I actually think supermarkets were safer before masks were worn in them because people made more of a conscious effort to space out - they wouldn't try and reach around the pensioner who was dithering over which pasta sauce to buy, they'd wait until she'd made up her mind and moved on.

In a club, there can be hundreds of people freely mingling and dancing, singing, drinking...one person could feasibly infect a large number of others, yet apparently this is completely fine.

What I find most concerning is just how polarised opinions are regarding it - either you're doing your best to follow the rules; in which case you're woke/virtue signalling etc, or you'd much rather get on with life and don't support further restrictions; in which case you're irresponsible/self-centred etc. There's virtually no room for any healthy debate on it because everyone is so rigidly entrenched in their own opinion that they completely disregard that there might be scope for people holding alternative viewpoints.

I am very much a believer in situation ethics, and that's what I have been using to make my judgments - if I'm seeing my cousin for a walk then I'm not going to be giving restrictions any thought at all - we'll be freely hugging, sharing food etc - for that, we're both comfortable with the very tiny risk associated. However, if my family are visiting my 95 year old great-grandma, then it's absolutely essential that we all have a negative test on the morning of the visit, and we'll generally be very careful to minimise risks in the days beforehand (perhaps taking one or two extra precautions in situations where we might normally be a bit more relaxed). If me and my cousin, a couple of very healthy lads in our early 20s, ended up covid-positive, then at worst it'd probably mean feeling a bit crappy for a few days, but that seems a risk worth taking for the mental health boost gained by being able to see one another in unrestricted circumstances. If my great-grandma ended up covid-positive then there's a very real chance she could end up in intensive care and possibly in the worst case she could end up passing away, so risks really must be minimised as much as possible in that case.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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I think whenever you draw a line somewhere, people are going to complain that it's arbitrary - why this and not that?

I see the point about nightclubs, where people are likely to be in very close contact with each other and shouting etc., but generally it seems to be they've made a distinction between social activities and day-to-day "chores". E.g. I don't care that much if I have to wear a mask on a bus, because it's not exactly going to spoil what was otherwise going to be a great fun event for me. And if you're shopping, you can take your mask off between shops, and unless you're a lunatic of some sort, you won't spend a massive amount of time in one shop. But when you're out for the evening, it's more likely to put a downer on it if you're wearing a mask.

Of course, that's not to say I think this is necesaarily exactly the right balance. But I did say a while back that I thought they should have kept restrictions in shops and on public transport as they seemed like easy wins.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Gavin Chipper »

After the debacle that was trying to get my first COVID vaccination (and the second one), getting the booster was pretty much completely pain free. Except that I actually feel like shit today after having it yesterday. Much better organised though and barely any waiting around either.

And while I'm here, although people are being rightly cautious about it, reading between the lines, it does seem that the Omicron variant might be less virulent than other variants. And that, along with it being more spreadable could be a good thing. It means that it will likely outcompete the other variants and leave us with a far less dangerous one. They said at the start that of the pandemic what might happen is that it will evolve into something more like a cold that we end up just living with. This could be the start of that. No promises though. Just idle speculation for now.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Rhys Benjamin »

Gavin Chipper wrote: Sat Dec 11, 2021 12:29 pmit does seem that the Omicron variant might be less virulent than other variants. And that, along with it being more spreadable[...]
There is a worry these two things would balance each other out.

I suspect that it was on the continent before it arrived in the UK, which led to the full lockdown measures we saw there in November onwards, combined with their relatively poor third dose numbers compared to ours.
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