c4countdown

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 3:13 am**

Elliott Mellor wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2024 8:41 pm
Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2024 7:34 pm If you remember back in 1997 the Sun backed B Liar and that was the final hurdle overcome.
It shows you how bad the Tories are when Kier Starmer who probably isn't even the 5th best Labour politician is going to outdo 1997.
It's true to say this mirrors Brexit in so much as people are voting against the status quo rather than what is being offered instead.
Though I'm guessing it will be closer to 13% than 3%

Anyway , Gev , what do you think about the Fib Dems manifesto ?
These nicknames are so original, it must have taken you ages to think them up.

Well I've been using them for over 10 years so not new and not original probably stolen from Private Eye.
Yes I'm puerile there was a documentary on Mrs T and I was shouting Maggie Thatcher Milk Snatcher.
That's at least 50 years old.
Haven't come up with a decent one for Rishi Sunak.
Though he has imposter syndrome .
Looking forward to see the ITV interview that was so important he missed some of the D Day commemorations

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:39 pm**

https://x.com/EJ_McGuinness/status/1799489406425841945

You do wonder how they think they'll get away with this sort of thing.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 2:03 pm**

Well the polls suggest they won't!

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 2:07 pm**

I'm liking the Green manifesto.
If Labour get the voting age down to 16 I can see the Greens doing well in 2029

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:35 pm**

This Sky News leaders thing is awful; I've had to turn it off. Just blatant 'gotcha' setups one after the other. What's the point in having the two leaders on, advertising it as a chance for voters to see what they can vote for, and then not allowing them to speak freely? What a load of self-congratulatory rubbish.

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:50 pm**

Callum Todd wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:35 pm This Sky News leaders thing is awful; I've had to turn it off. Just blatant 'gotcha' setups one after the other. What's the point in having the two leaders on, advertising it as a chance for voters to see what they can vote for, and then not allowing them to speak freely? What a load of self-congratulatory rubbish.

It gets better with Rishi , he isn't living in the real world

Posted: **Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:58 pm**

Callum Todd wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:35 pm This Sky News leaders thing is awful; I've had to turn it off. Just blatant 'gotcha' setups one after the other. What's the point in having the two leaders on, advertising it as a chance for voters to see what they can vote for, and then not allowing them to speak freely? What a load of self-congratulatory rubbish.

What's the point in having them on at all when all they do is just make fake promises and dodge questions? You could ask them whether they preferred custard creams or chocolate digestives and they'd go on a spiel about how they were planning on building 5,000 more biscuit factories and recruiting 20,000 more factory workers instead of giving an actual answer.

Posted: **Thu Jun 13, 2024 9:54 am**

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:50 pm
Callum Todd wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 7:35 pm This Sky News leaders thing is awful; I've had to turn it off. Just blatant 'gotcha' setups one after the other. What's the point in having the two leaders on, advertising it as a chance for voters to see what they can vote for, and then not allowing them to speak freely? What a load of self-congratulatory rubbish.
It gets better with Rishi , he isn't living in the real world

"Rishi, according to the polls you’re wildly unpopular, can you tell us something that might make people like you more?"

"I like haribo"

Posted: **Thu Jun 13, 2024 11:50 am**

Labour Manifesto.
Highlights for me are lowering voting g age to 16.
Reform the House of Lords , compulsory retirement at 80 sounds good.
Abolition of the House of Lords Sound better but turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
If you pardon the pun it's a very Conservative manifesto

Posted: **Thu Jun 13, 2024 1:02 pm**

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2024 11:50 am Labour Manifesto.
Highlights for me are lowering voting g age to 16.
Reform the House of Lords , compulsory retirement at 80 sounds good.
Abolition of the House of Lords Sound better but turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
If you pardon the pun it's a very Conservative manifesto

For a minute I thought you meant compulsory retirement at 80 in general. But no, just from the House of Lords. I don't think that explicit ageism is a good policy. There are better ways to reform/abolish the House of Lords without faffing about at the edges anyway.

Posted: **Thu Jun 13, 2024 1:21 pm**

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2024 1:02 pm
Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Thu Jun 13, 2024 11:50 am Labour Manifesto.
Highlights for me are lowering voting g age to 16.
Reform the House of Lords , compulsory retirement at 80 sounds good.
Abolition of the House of Lords Sound better but turkeys don't vote for Christmas.
If you pardon the pun it's a very Conservative manifesto
For a minute I thought you meant compulsory retirement at 80 in general. But no, just from the House of Lords. I don't think that explicit ageism is a good policy. There are better ways to reform/abolish the House of Lords without faffing about at the edges anyway.

It might take a few years but stopping new Lords entering and letting the others die off might be the best way for reform.

Posted: **Thu Jun 13, 2024 5:58 pm**

Groundhog Day tonight with ITV recreating the 7 party debate with the same people .
Cant see anything new to come out of it.
Though I would say in the lifetime of the next parliament I can see Penny and Angela sparring at PMQs

Posted: **Wed Jun 19, 2024 11:37 pm**

Notable Tories and their current odds on keeping their seat (B365), from safest to deadest...... those in bold are currently odds against being an MP in a couple of weeks. It could be carnage!!!!

1/9 Kemi Badenoch
1/7 Priti Patel
1/7 Tom Tugendhat
1/7 Damian Hinds
1/6 Mims Davies
2/11 Stephen Barclay
2/9 Victoria Atkins
1/4 Claire Coutinho
3/10 Kit Malthouse
4/11 Rishi Sunak

4/11 Michael Fabricant
2/5 Gavin Williamson
2/5 Oliver Dowden
2/5 David Davis
4/9 James Cleverly
1/2 Suella Braverman
1/2 Michelle Donelan
8/13 Liz Truss
4/6 Douglas Ross
5/6 Richard Holden
1/1 Lucy Frazer
5/4 Robert Jenrick
6/4 Esther McVey
7/4 Penny Mordaunt
7/4 Therese Coffey
7/4 Chris Philp
2/1 Gillian Keegan
12/5 Damian Green
5/2 Iain Duncan Smith
3/1 Peter Bottomley (MP since 1975)
3/1 David Davies (Welsh secretary)
10/3 Jeremy Hunt
10/3 Jacob Rees-Mogg
10/3 Liam Fox
7/2 Theresa Villiers
9/2 Tobias Ellwood
5/1 Johnny Mercer
5/1 Tom Pursglove
6/1 Grant Shapps
7/1 Robert Buckland
7/1 Stephen Crabb
18/1 Jake Berry

Posted: **Thu Jun 20, 2024 7:27 pm**

Chemical Badenoch is in a constituency adjacent to mine (which has James Cleverly). A very Tory area for some reason. It's pretty extraordinary though that given the existence of Enoch Powell, Kemi is still known as the Bad-enoch.

Posted: **Sat Jun 22, 2024 4:56 pm**

Fiona T wrote: ↑Wed Jun 12, 2024 12:39 pm https://x.com/EJ_McGuinness/status/1799489406425841945

You do wonder how they think they'll get away with this sort of thing.

He did our parkrun today. He had to be told that political t-shirts are not allowed.

https://x.com/EJ_McGuinness/status/1804 ... 53/photo/1

Posted: **Sat Jun 22, 2024 5:48 pm**

Is that actually a parkrun rule?

Posted: **Sat Jun 22, 2024 5:50 pm**

Yeah

https://volunteer.parkrun.com/principle ... onstrating

Edit: Given he's tagged parkrun in his post, it will be interesting to see if they request he removes it

Posted: **Mon Jun 24, 2024 6:05 pm**

Greens on Panorama
First 10 minutes were good but he lost me with a world without borders and cannabilising Legalis

Posted: **Mon Jun 24, 2024 10:22 pm**

https://humanists.uk/2024/06/24/general ... st-issues/

Thought it was an interesting read for issues I care about

Posted: **Tue Jun 25, 2024 12:04 pm**

Fiona T wrote: ↑Mon Jun 24, 2024 10:22 pm https://humanists.uk/2024/06/24/general ... st-issues/

Thought it was an interesting read for issues I care about

I'm not sure I feel I gain that much from reading a lobby group's opinion of the manifestos as opposed to reading them directly myself.

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2024 7:42 am**

I wonder if England have shorter odds of being defeated before The Tories ?

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2024 8:18 am**

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2024 7:42 am I wonder if England have shorter odds of being defeated before The Tories ?

England are currently 2/1 to lose in the last 16 on Sunday (B365) - their quarter final would be on the Saturday after the election.

Posted: **Wed Jun 26, 2024 9:16 am**

Martin Hurst wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2024 8:18 am
Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Wed Jun 26, 2024 7:42 am I wonder if England have shorter odds of being defeated before The Tories ?
England are currently 2/1 to lose in the last 16 on Sunday (B365) - their quarter final would be on the Saturday after the election.

Of course I haven't factored in here the odds of the Tories winning the election (LOL)

Posted: **Wed Jul 03, 2024 11:40 am**

Has anyone ever seen Boris Johnson and Gary Busey in the same room?

Posted: **Wed Jul 03, 2024 5:56 pm**

A small part of me is upset that England. are winning as my favourite joke about England players being told not to vote to save further embarrassment as they are unlikely to find the box let alone put a cross in it .

But England MEN only win trophies under a Labour government

Posted: **Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:16 pm**

My MP has been going round the constituency.

Posted: **Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:39 pm**

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:16 pm My MP has been going round the constituency.

Is he gonna lose his seat do you think ?

Posted: **Wed Jul 03, 2024 10:55 pm**

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:39 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Wed Jul 03, 2024 9:16 pm My MP has been going round the constituency.
Is he gonna lose his seat do you think ?

Might do. I think he's still favourite to win though.

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2024 8:46 am**

I'm crap at predictions but I predict the Tories to win less than 80 seats

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2024 4:09 pm**

The Hampshire Independents logo looks like an advert for erectile dysfunction

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2024 4:10 pm**

Super busy turnout at polling station. Double that of local elections and still 5 hours to go

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:03 pm**

Philip A wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 8:24 pm My prediction:

Labour: 480 seats
Conservatives: 60 seats
Reform: 1 seat

Ok, all well off, but still, it’s going to be a Labour landslide.

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:07 pm**

It's telling that the exit poll is brutal but still better for the Tories than any pre-election prediction.

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:27 pm**

It's still just another poll.

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:30 pm**

Any site that has simple read-ups of each of the parties so I can read up on them?

Posted: **Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:47 pm**

Andres Sanchez wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:30 pm Any site that has simple read-ups of each of the parties so I can read up on them?

The BBC has this. The Guardian has this.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:18 am**

Alright after a quick scan of both and also sneaking a peek of Keir's winning, I think you guys might be in good hands. Certainly better compared to the main men in the U.S. at this point I feel.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:02 am**

Rees-Mogg, Shapps, Coffey, Truss, and a whole bunch of other tory wankers all gone. Fucking beautiful.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:00 am**

Andres Sanchez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:18 am Alright after a quick scan of both and also sneaking a peek of Keir's winning, I think you guys might be in good hands. Certainly better compared to the main men in the U.S. at this point I feel.

Keir Starmer is a power-hungry, authoritarian genocide-supporter. We're not in good hands. But at least it's not the Tories.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:06 am**

Labour's vote share went up by 2% compared to 2019 with Corbyn. It's nothing they did. Tories are down by 20%.

Edit - BBC saying Labour on 35%. Wikipedia says 32.1% in 2019. 40% in 2017 - also under Corbyn.

Given what the Tories have lost, you would expect at least some of those to go to Labour. Given the small increase, don't think that this result is anything to do with Starmer being more electable than Corbyn. Labour have done badly considering the open goal.

Plus with 35% of the vote, this landslide is completely undemocratic. Looking forward to the case for PR coming up, even if some of it will come from Farage.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:14 am**

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:06 am Labour's vote share went up by 2% compared to 2019 with Corbyn. It's nothing they did. Tories are down by 20%.

Edit - BBC saying Labour on 35%. Wikipedia says 32.1% in 2019. 40% in 2017 - also under Corbyn.

Given what the Tories have lost, you would expect at least some of those to go to Labour. Given the small increase, don't think that this result is anything to do with Starmer being more electable than Corbyn. Labour have done badly considering the open goal.

Plus with 35% of the vote, this landslide is completely undemocratic. Looking forward to the case for PR coming up, even if some of it will come from Farage.

Labour have done badly , really !!,Nearly 10 million votes well over 3 times as many seats as The Tories.
I think Sunak could be a child killer and the Tories would still get 100 seats

The biggest surprise is over 4 million votes for the Reform Party more than the Lib dems.
So be careful what you wish for with regards AV or PR

If Labour had a charismatic leader like Tony Blair (stopped the name calling by popular demand ) just imagine how many seats they would have had

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 11:38 am**

Felt a little bit sorry for Penny Mordant as amshe comes across as a lot better than most of the others though she probably didn't do herself any favours shouting over Angela Rayner during the debates.

Great to see Reece - Mogg lose his seat in this year's Portillo moment

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 1:39 pm**

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:06 am Labour's vote share went up by 2% compared to 2019 with Corbyn. It's nothing they did. Tories are down by 20%.

Edit - BBC saying Labour on 35%. Wikipedia says 32.1% in 2019. 40% in 2017 - also under Corbyn.

Given what the Tories have lost, you would expect at least some of those to go to Labour. Given the small increase, don't think that this result is anything to do with Starmer being more electable than Corbyn. Labour have done badly considering the open goal.

Plus with 35% of the vote, this landslide is completely undemocratic. Looking forward to the case for PR coming up, even if some of it will come from Farage.

BBC now have Labour on 33.7% compared to 32.2% when they were "completely unelectable" in 2019. It's not very different. And 40.0% in 2017 of course.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:19 pm**

How many recounts at West Thurrock (my old hunting ground in the 1990s)
I mean 5 votes is 5 votes

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:34 pm**

Wes Streeting nearly lost his seat and Labour lost a few seats because of Gaza.

And also this is the biggest gap ever between the share of seats and share of votes for the winning party. There's no real legitimacy for this landside. Just a symptom of our broken electoral system.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:28 pm**

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 6:34 pm Wes Streeting nearly lost his seat and Labour lost a few seats because of Gaza.

And also this is the biggest gap ever between the share of seats and share of votes for the winning party. There's no real legitimacy for this landside. Just a symptom of our broken electoral system.

It's always likely to happen in constituencies with a high percentage of Muslim voters.

We've had the referendum on AV and the country said no.
Wait 12 years until reform are either the opposition or , gulp ,
The winning party and you might have a chance for another referendum

If that sounds unlikely , remember it was 20 years after the labour party was formed before it got into government.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:39 pm**

AV was always a miserable little compromise and is nothing to do with proportional representation really. Also 2011 is a long time ago now, and loudmouth Farage might do one good thing in his life and bang on about this issue now he's an MP.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:04 pm**

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:00 am
Andres Sanchez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:18 am Alright after a quick scan of both and also sneaking a peek of Keir's winning, I think you guys might be in good hands. Certainly better compared to the main men in the U.S. at this point I feel.
Keir Starmer is a power-hungry, authoritarian genocide-supporter. We're not in good hands. But at least it's not the Tories.

Oh yeah I've heard the Tories are shit, and given the shitting on Sunak over social media, I think he's not the best either. Of course I know nothing about Starmer other than his plans and a little of his upbringing soooooo

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:11 pm**

Trivia:

0 of the 92 English and Welsh football clubs in the top 4 divisions are based in Conservative constituencies;

0 of the current MPs were elected before 1983, the year before Thatcher’s second victory.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:24 pm**

Andres Sanchez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:04 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:00 am
Andres Sanchez wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 4:18 am Alright after a quick scan of both and also sneaking a peek of Keir's winning, I think you guys might be in good hands. Certainly better compared to the main men in the U.S. at this point I feel.
Keir Starmer is a power-hungry, authoritarian genocide-supporter. We're not in good hands. But at least it's not the Tories.

Oh yeah I've heard the Tories are shit, and given the shitting on Sunak over social media, I think he's not the best either. Of course I know nothing about Starmer other than his plans and a little of his upbringing soooooo

Yeah, his upbringing. His dad was a tool-maker, or so I've heard.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:25 pm**

Philip A wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:11 pm Trivia:

0 of the 92 English and Welsh football clubs in the top 4 divisions are based in Conservative constituencies;

0 of the current MPs were elected before 1983, the year before Thatcher’s second victory.

That football one is quite a stat.

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:28 pm**

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:39 pm AV was always a miserable little compromise and is nothing to do with proportional representation really. Also 2011 is a long time ago now, and loudmouth Farage might do one good thing in his life and bang on about this issue now he's an MP.

Maybe in 7 years we can go again as its a once in a generational thing .....I think

Posted: **Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:42 pm**

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:25 pm
Philip A wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:11 pm Trivia:

0 of the 92 English and Welsh football clubs in the top 4 divisions are based in Conservative constituencies;

0 of the current MPs were elected before 1983, the year before Thatcher’s second victory.
That football one is quite a stat.

There is apparently still one... sort-of.

Posted: **Sat Jul 06, 2024 5:01 am**

I think The Lib dems were the only party to get the same number of seats as their share of the vote

Posted: **Sun Jul 07, 2024 6:38 am**

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Sat Jul 06, 2024 5:01 am I think The Lib dems were the only party to get the same number of seats as their share of the vote

The vote share analysis is really interesting, and doesn't look great for Labour. Their vote share only just makes the second quartile in a ranking of their performance in all UK general elections on record. And while I'm not a fan of Reform, it's mad that they received more votes than the Lib Dems but only 7% of the seats they got.

I'm also not a fan of Jeremy Corbyn, but factoring in the low turnout backs up some of Gavin's points above too: Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party received more votes in both 2017 and 2019 (!) than Keir Starmer's Labour Party did in 2024.

Posted: **Sun Jul 07, 2024 7:43 am**

Yeah PR makes sense. How does it work though in terms of people voting for their MP? There would have to be some areas where the candidate with the majority vote was not the MP allocated?

Posted: **Sun Jul 07, 2024 9:37 am**

There are different ways to get PR, but probably the most realistic in the UK is Single Transferable Vote (STV). You'd have larger constituencies (maybe 5 or 6 MPs per constituency) so a mini PR election (rather than nationwide). The most popular candidate would still be elected but not simply the top 5/6 most popular as there would also be proportional balancing out. All these MPs would be "your MP".

Posted: **Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:20 am**

Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 9:37 am There are different ways to get PR, but probably the most realistic in the UK is Single Transferable Vote (STV). You'd have larger constituencies (maybe 5 or 6 MPs per constituency) so a mini PR election (rather than nationwide). The most popular candidate would still be elected but not simply the top 5/6 most popular as there would also be proportional balancing out. All these MPs would be "your MP".

The question to ask was why did the 2011 referendum fail and more importantly why would opinions have changed enough if we had one now (thought 2031 is more realistic ) ?

I think now Farage is an MP , he would be the face of Reform the constitution in the same way Farages Brexit Party was instrumental in the Brexit vote.

Posted: **Sun Jul 07, 2024 12:03 pm**

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:20 am
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 9:37 am There are different ways to get PR, but probably the most realistic in the UK is Single Transferable Vote (STV). You'd have larger constituencies (maybe 5 or 6 MPs per constituency) so a mini PR election (rather than nationwide). The most popular candidate would still be elected but not simply the top 5/6 most popular as there would also be proportional balancing out. All these MPs would be "your MP".
The question to ask was why did the 2011 referendum fail and more importantly why would opinions have changed enough if we had one now (thought 2031 is more realistic ) ?

I think now Farage is an MP , he would be the face of Reform the constitution in the same way Farages Brexit Party was instrumental in the Brexit vote.

Yeah that's why Starmer should own it now and get it done!

Posted: **Sun Jul 07, 2024 12:20 pm**

Marc Meakin wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:20 am
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 9:37 am There are different ways to get PR, but probably the most realistic in the UK is Single Transferable Vote (STV). You'd have larger constituencies (maybe 5 or 6 MPs per constituency) so a mini PR election (rather than nationwide). The most popular candidate would still be elected but not simply the top 5/6 most popular as there would also be proportional balancing out. All these MPs would be "your MP".
The question to ask was why did the 2011 referendum fail and more importantly why would opinions have changed enough if we had one now (thought 2031 is more realistic ) ?

I think now Farage is an MP , he would be the face of Reform the constitution in the same way Farages Brexit Party was instrumental in the Brexit vote.

The 2011 referendum was not for proportional representation, so it was for a different thing. Also it was seen as a Lib Dem policy and they'd already lost credibility and people's trust over the tuition fees debacle. And Nick Clegg had called AV a miserable little compromise, doing further damage to it.

And as you say, Farage is all for PR, and hate him or hate him, he has a lot of influence. I would say most "progressive" people are for PR anyway, and Farage could persuade a lot of the rest of people. He's a man of the people you know!

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