The CoC Predictions Game

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Zarte Siempre
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The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am

IF YOU WISH TO PARTICIPATE IN THIS, PLEASE *PRIVATE* MESSAGE ME YOUR PREDICTIONS. SPEAK IN VAGUE TERMS, OR SMACK TALK HERE BY ALL MEANS, BUT LET’S KEEP THE RESULTS INTERESTING.

After a few betting games on the outcomes of finals with various success rates, and when people can’t actually be sure that someone hasn’t found out a result on the sly, I thought I’d introduce one in advance for you to all have your say on the upcoming CoC. I’ve come up with a format. Unless there is a huge mega hole that I haven’t noticed, I won’t be changing it for your “better” idea, just go with it or don’t.

Here’s how it will work:

We now know the structure for the upcoming CoC – you can plot it through from start to finish with your predictions, but can you get the results right in the process? And furthermore, can you hedge your bets?

For R1, you know who will play who. Simply predict who will win. Each correct answer scores 50 points. Each wrong answer scores 0. You must also predict a margin. The margin points are a bit more complicated, but go with me. If you are 10 points exactly out on the margin, that is exactly 0 points. For each point closer you the points added increases by 1. That’s terribly worded, so I’ll write it out manually. 9 points away = 1 point, 8 points away = 3 points, 7 points away = 6 points, 6 points away = 10 points, up to an exact prediction which earns 55 points – meaning you can score up to 105 points per game.

For being further out than 10, for every point further away between 11 and 40, you lose 1 point, meaning if you were 40 points out on the margin you lose 30 points. After that, each further point you are away, you lose 2 points.

If you predict the wrong winner you can still collect margin points, or more likely, you will still lose margin points. In the event of a tie-break conundrum, this will be taken to be a 0 point win. If you were to predict this for the wrong player, you would still get 55 margin points, cos it’d be a ballsy pick.

From R2 onwards, obviously we don’t the players who will be involved, but you must continue to make predictions based on the results you’ve predicted to date. For instance if you have backed Paul to beat me, and Stephen to beat Tom, you are now predicting Paul v Stephen.

If both players turn out to be involved in that game, perfect.

If only one player is involved in it, then the outcome will still be measured from the perspective of the prediction you made. For instance, if you predict Stephen will beat Paul by 20 points, but he ends up playing Tom – you are still predicting Tom to beat Paul by 20 points. Therefore you may wish to hedge your bets on outcomes where you’re unsure what will happen.

If you have no players involved in a game, your score for that game is automatically a flat -75

If you don’t understand the scoring system... you don’t massively need to – you can just send me your predictions including margins to me privately, and I’ll just work out your scores. Otherwise, you may wish to work out some convoluted tactic to optimise your chances of winning.

You have until the start of the 1st game of CoC FILMS (October 1st) to get your predictions in. Please don’t worry about telling me that you think Paul will beat me – I won’t take it personally! I will be taking part myself and will be sending my predictions to a player who has already made their own. For this reason, no alterations can be made to your predictions once you have sent them in. Be sure before you click send.

Results will be revealed on a day by day basis as they air. No pressure will be placed on anyone (barring me) through finding out what people think :)

Best of luck!
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Zarte Siempre
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:23 am

For those needing a reminder:

1. JONATHAN WYNN V PHIL DAVIES
2. ANN DIBBEN V JOHN COWEN
3. MATTHEW TASSIER V DOUGIE MACKAY
4. THOMAS CAREY V STEPHEN READ
5. PAUL ERDUNAST V ZARTE SIEMPRE
6. TOM CHAFER-COOK V MARTIN HURST
7. BRADLEY HORROCKS V ANDREW MACLEOD
8. PHILIP ASTON V NOEL MCILVENNY

9. WYNN/DAVIES V ASTON/MCILVENNY
10. DIBBEN/COWEN V HORROCKS/MACLEOD
11. TASSIER/MACKAY V CHAFER-COOK/HURST
12. CAREY/READ V ERDUNAST/SIEMPRE

13. WYNN/DAVIES/ASTON/MCILVENNY V CAREY/READ/ERDUNAST/SIEMPRE
14. DIBBEN/COWEN/HORROCKS/MACLEOD V TASSIER/MACKAY/CHAFER-COOK/HURST

15. WHOEVER'S LEFT
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Johnny Canuck
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Johnny Canuck » Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:10 pm

I predict Wynn and Chafer-Cook will get through to the first and second semi-finals, prevailing by a lot of points each time. Then Stewart Holden and Craig Beevers will crash the party and battle it out in the final.

Also, are there two Moles?
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Jennifer Steadman » Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:51 pm

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:10 pm
Also, are there two Moles?
There's just one Mole, and it's Zarte.
🍆

Zarte Siempre
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Wed Aug 29, 2018 5:10 pm

Jennifer Steadman wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:51 pm
Johnny Canuck wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 2:10 pm
Also, are there two Moles?
There's just one Mole, and it's Zarte.
I hate the pair of you...
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Tom S » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:11 am

Hi Zarte,
Sorry if this is a dumb question, but do I have to state a specific number for the margin, e.g. X beats Y by 9 pts, or can I give a region, e.g. X beats Y by between 5-10 pts?
Thanks.

Zarte Siempre
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am

I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Gavin Chipper » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am

Zarte Siempre wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?

That's not to say your question was dumb, Tom S* - this is aimed more at anyone who simply sent a range without even thinking it might not be within the rules.

*Well, maybe a little bit!

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:33 am

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?

That's not to say your question was dumb, Tom S* - this is aimed more at anyone who simply sent a range without even thinking it might not be within the rules.

*Well, maybe a little bit!
One person sent me a range. One person hasn't even sent me a margin at all... so in comparison, I'm viewing them a bit favourably.
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Tom S » Thu Aug 30, 2018 11:19 am

Zarte Siempre wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
Thanks-position clarified. Will internally think of a margin, and go for the average.

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Graeme Cole
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Graeme Cole » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:54 pm

I sent Zarte a list of my predicted winners and margins for each game. It was decided entirely by random dice rolls. My only goal is not to come last in the prediction game so that at least one person loses to random chance. But at least my entry complied with the rules.

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Graeme Cole
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Graeme Cole » Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:57 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
So if someone says "I think A will beat B by 5-10 points", and Zarte takes the middle value which is 7.5, and the actual margin turns out to be, say, 7, how many points are scored?

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Gavin Chipper » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:09 am

Graeme Cole wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:57 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
So if someone says "I think A will beat B by 5-10 points", and Zarte takes the middle value which is 7.5, and the actual margin turns out to be, say, 7, how many points are scored?
I wondered about that too.

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Tom S » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:42 am

Graeme Cole wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:57 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 9:17 am
I need specific. Where people are sending me ranges I'm taking the middle value. (If anyone who gave a range reads this, I will allow them to pick a number within their range to be more specific, but otherwise, middle value)
People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
So if someone says "I think A will beat B by 5-10 points", and Zarte takes the middle value which is 7.5, and the actual margin turns out to be, say, 7, how many points are scored?
Would it be rounded up to the nearest whole number?

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Cappleman » Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:46 am

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Fri Aug 31, 2018 8:09 am
Graeme Cole wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:57 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Aug 30, 2018 10:05 am


People have actually done that? What kind of lunatic would send you a range when the scoring system requires an exact number? What did they think would happen?
So if someone says "I think A will beat B by 5-10 points", and Zarte takes the middle value which is 7.5, and the actual margin turns out to be, say, 7, how many points are scored?
I wondered about that too.
49.875, by the triangle number formula applied in the general case.

Or Tom's suggestion of rounding the middle value off.

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:00 am

I've taken it as a round down, as logically it would stand to reason that people are more likely to want to hedge. So in a 5 to 10 - I'll take 7.
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Sun Sep 02, 2018 8:43 pm

Controversy in the Countdown studio as Mr Zarte Siempre deliberately lost his crucial conundrum today so as to gain a perfect score in his predictions competition...

I'll take a strictly mathematical approach to this, so my predictions won't be in for a while.
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:53 pm

Q: in event of a TB which is cut from broadcast (such as my first show), will this go down as a margin of 10 or a TB?

(I scored 7 on the last numbers to tie at 68-68, and we missed two conundrums, both of which - both - were cut, giving the impression my GADWINNER solve was not a TB.)
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Elliott Mellor » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:33 pm

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:53 pm
Q: in event of a TB which is cut from broadcast (such as my first show), will this go down as a margin of 10 or a TB?
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am


Here’s how it will work:


In the event of a tie-break conundrum, this will be taken to be a 0 point win.

...

Best of luck!

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Graeme Cole
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Graeme Cole » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:40 pm

Elliott Mellor wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:33 pm
Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:53 pm
Q: in event of a TB which is cut from broadcast (such as my first show), will this go down as a margin of 10 or a TB?
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am


Here’s how it will work:


In the event of a tie-break conundrum, this will be taken to be a 0 point win.

...

Best of luck!
I don't think that answers the question as well as you think it does.

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Noel Mc » Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:59 pm

Two options:

Go from TV, in which case it won't count as tie break.

Go from studio, then it does count as tie break.

I would be inclined to go from studio

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Elliott Mellor » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:19 pm

Graeme Cole wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:40 pm
Elliott Mellor wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 6:33 pm
Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 4:53 pm
Q: in event of a TB which is cut from broadcast (such as my first show), will this go down as a margin of 10 or a TB?
Zarte Siempre wrote:
Wed Aug 29, 2018 11:13 am


Here’s how it will work:


In the event of a tie-break conundrum, this will be taken to be a 0 point win.

...

Best of luck!
I don't think that answers the question as well as you think it does.
It says it goes down as a 0 point margin, which seemed to answer the question to me. Maybe I've just misinterpreted the question.

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Graeme Cole
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Graeme Cole » Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:30 pm

Essentially the question was, what if what's shown on TV isn't the same as what happens in the studio. C1 and C2 are level going into the conundrum. Nobody gets it. They're given a tiebreak, and C1 gets it. The first conundrum is cut out for some reason. Does it count as a tiebreak?

I think this is pretty unlikely to happen anyway. Usually if multiple tiebreaks are used, they cut out the unsolved tiebreaks, but they keep in the "normal" conundrum and the solved tiebreak. What happened in Rhys's game was quite unusual and (AFAIK) unique.

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Elliott Mellor » Sat Sep 15, 2018 8:31 pm

Graeme Cole wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:30 pm
Essentially the question was, what if what's shown on TV isn't the same as what happens in the studio. C1 and C2 are level going into the conundrum. Nobody gets it. They're given a tiebreak, and C1 gets it. The first conundrum is cut out for some reason. Does it count as a tiebreak?

I think this is pretty unlikely to happen anyway. Usually if multiple tiebreaks are used, they cut out the unsolved tiebreaks, but they keep in the "normal" conundrum and the solved tiebreak. What happened in Rhys's game was quite unusual and (AFAIK) unique.
I'd probably assume it's going to be what happens on TV - what the average viewer sees. I can't see this being a problem though since it's extremely unlikely to happen.

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Sun Sep 16, 2018 5:38 am

Graeme Cole wrote:
Sat Sep 15, 2018 7:30 pm
Essentially the question was, what if what's shown on TV isn't the same as what happens in the studio. C1 and C2 are level going into the conundrum. Nobody gets it. They're given a tiebreak, and C1 gets it. The first conundrum is cut out for some reason. Does it count as a tiebreak?

I think this is pretty unlikely to happen anyway. Usually if multiple tiebreaks are used, they cut out the unsolved tiebreaks, but they keep in the "normal" conundrum and the solved tiebreak. What happened in Rhys's game was quite unusual and (AFAIK) unique.
Whilst I was running analysises (analyses?) of the CoC contestants I came across a contestant whose TB con was included in their score. As you speculated at the time of my game (that spoilers thread is burnt into my brain!!) does that mean all TB cons are now “in”?

If yes, there may be - and probs are - other cases where the “normal” con has been cut and the first to have a winner is shown.

(I’ve also noticed the editor / continuity department dropped the ball when cutting my first game together since the positioning of my arms jump-cuts!!)

Ultimately, it’s up to Zarte. Hence the question.
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Mon Sep 17, 2018 5:37 am

Would be scored by studio result, but the chances of this occurring I would say are approximately 1000-1.

In fact if you wish to forfeit all predictions and have the possibility to be declared the winner should this one outcome take place, I would probably accept that.
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Owen Carroll » Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:40 am

Could I give the three people I'm expecting to be the winner?

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Gavin Chipper » Mon Sep 17, 2018 1:45 pm

Owen Carroll wrote:
Mon Sep 17, 2018 7:40 am
Could I give the three people I'm expecting to be the winner?
This isn't Only Connect.

Zarte Siempre
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Zarte Siempre » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:08 am

Last day to get your predictions in!
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Owen Carroll » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:24 am

Just checking Zarte, you got my predictions right?

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Sun Sep 30, 2018 7:09 pm

My Predictions:-

1. JONATHAN WYNN beats PHIL DAVIES by 42pts.
2. JOHN COWEN beats ANN DIBBEN by 14pts
3. MATTHEW TASSIER beats DOUGIE MACKAY by 61pts
4. THOMAS CAREY beats STEPHEN READ by 7pts
5. PAUL ERDUNAST beats ZARTE SIEMPRE by 28pts
6. TOM CHAFER-COOK beats MARTIN HURST by 10pts
7. BRADLEY HORROCKS beats ANDREW MACLEOD by 37pts
8. PHILIP ASTON beats NOEL MCILVENNY by 8pts

9. PHILIP ASTON beats JONATHAN WYNN by 18pts
10. BRADLEY HORROCKS beats JOHN COWEN by 12pts
11. TOM CHAFER-COOK beats MATTHEW TASSIER by 24pts
12. PAUL ERDUNAST beats THOMAS CAREY by 0pts

13. PAUL ERDUNAST beats PHILIP ASTON by 3pts
14. BRADLEY HORROCKS beats TOM CHAFER-COOK by 7pts

15. BRADLEY HORROCKS beats PAUL ERDUNAST by 0pts

Whatever happens, good luck to everyone... hope ye all have a very enjoyable few days over there!
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Thomas Carey » Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:00 pm

callum todd to beat bradley horrocks over t'noggin
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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Bradley Horrocks » Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:54 pm

I must have seriously impressed you at Co:Dub yesterday Mr McGraw :lol: A tiebreak conundrum in the final though - what scenes

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Bradley Horrocks » Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:55 pm

Thomas Carey wrote:
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:00 pm
callum todd to beat bradley horrocks over t'noggin
I was laughing at this far more than I should've done.

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Owen Carroll » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:08 pm

Well best of luck to you all tomorrow. I envy you allllllllllllllllllll

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by Owen Carroll » Sun Sep 30, 2018 9:10 pm

Also, I'll be filling out my application tomorrow

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Re: The CoC Predictions Game

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Sun Sep 30, 2018 11:25 pm

Bradley Horrocks wrote:
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:54 pm
I must have seriously impressed you at Co:Dub yesterday Mr McGraw :lol: A tiebreak conundrum in the final though - what scenes
May as well have drama in a final! Let's make it one to remember. ;)
The way I see it, there are a fair number of players who could nick the title...
...and I have a feeling this one is not going to go with seeding. Just a hunch, we'll see how it goes.

Another prediction about this Champion of Champions...
...the long standing game high score record of 146 will finally be beaten.
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