(I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Discuss anything interesting but not remotely Countdown-related here.

Moderator: Jon O'Neill

Post Reply

Which ones are you going to vote for then

Poll runs till Fri Jun 09, 2017 12:14 pm

Conservatives
3
14%
Labour
4
18%
Lib Dems
8
36%
UKIP
0
No votes
Greens
2
9%
SNP
1
5%
Plaid Cymru
0
No votes
DUP
0
No votes
Sinn Fein
0
No votes
UUP
0
No votes
SDLP
0
No votes
Alliance
0
No votes
Independent candidate
1
5%
Some other party
0
No votes
Not going to vote
2
9%
Undecided
1
5%
 
Total votes: 22

User avatar
Jennifer Steadman
Devotee
Posts: 951
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Kent
Contact:

(I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Jennifer Steadman » Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:14 pm

8th June.

The big questions:
- Gev For Braintree 2: Electric Boogaloo?
- How big will the Tory landslide be?
- Lib Dem surge? (South-west results will be interesting)
- UKIP collapse?
- Labour collapse?
- How much will the 'left' split between Labour/Lib Dems? How many seats will the Tories take off that?
- How fatigued are voters? (4 consecutive years of big votes in Scotland - IndyRef, GE, referendum, GE...)
- Will the Unionists push back in the GE after having a 'mare in the Northern Irish assembly elections in March?
- Will Corbyn resign after the election?
- What was the fucking point of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act??
proud tiara owner and annoying publicity person who tells you to click links to the the FOCAL website.

(and also to my TRAVEL BLOG)

User avatar
Mark Deeks
Kiloposter
Posts: 1607
Joined: Tue Jul 12, 2011 3:15 am

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Mark Deeks » Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:15 pm

Gev said he won't run. I vote we shake him until he does.
Eoin Monaghan wrote:
He may not be liked on here, but you have to give some credit to Mark

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:29 pm

This election will be the death knell of the Labour Party as we know it.
They will go an SDP/LibDem style break up.
The Lib Dems may get a few extra seats from the deluded masses who think we can unBrexit.
The one trick pony that is the SNP might be in for a shock and Sinn Fein will win enough seats to make the United Ireland brigade to rear their heads.
Still think in Kent and Essex Ukip will get half a dozen seats
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

User avatar
Jennifer Steadman
Devotee
Posts: 951
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Kent
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Jennifer Steadman » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:25 pm

Marc Meakin wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:29 pm
Still think in Kent and Essex Ukip will get half a dozen seats
How come? Theresa May's basically gone in the direction with Brexit that UKIP wanted, hasn't she? I'm not really sure what UKIP have to offer now, especially not in counties that are largely made up of Tory strongholds. Possibly means nothing, but they've been doing very poorly in council by-elections so far this year (as have Labour) and Paul Nuttall has awful approval ratings... I thought that maybe they'd have a shot at taking on Labour in the pro-Brexit "Labour heartland" areas but they've just been a mess ever since the referendum.

Now that Article 50's been triggered, I got the impression the Lib Dems were all about pushing to retain single market access (soft Brexit) rather than overturning it altogether?
proud tiara owner and annoying publicity person who tells you to click links to the the FOCAL website.

(and also to my TRAVEL BLOG)

Gavin Chipper
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 7606
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Gavin Chipper » Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:39 pm

Jennifer Steadman wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 3:25 pm
Marc Meakin wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 2:29 pm
Still think in Kent and Essex Ukip will get half a dozen seats
How come? Theresa May's basically gone in the direction with Brexit that UKIP wanted, hasn't she? I'm not really sure what UKIP have to offer now, especially not in counties that are largely made up of Tory strongholds. Possibly means nothing, but they've been doing very poorly in council by-elections so far this year (as have Labour) and Paul Nuttall has awful approval ratings... I thought that maybe they'd have a shot at taking on Labour in the pro-Brexit "Labour heartland" areas but they've just been a mess ever since the referendum.

Now that Article 50's been triggered, I got the impression the Lib Dems were all about pushing to retain single market access (soft Brexit) rather than overturning it altogether?
Given that UKIP only got one seat last time (Douglas Carswell in Clacton), I think they're at serious risk of getting none this time.

It makes me wonder - is this election just one big punishment to Douglas Carswell for refusing to have a by-election when he left UKIP? A bit extreme, but it's an interesting (if entirely false) theory.

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Tue Apr 18, 2017 5:56 pm

I think Thanet north and South, Rochester and maybe Gillingham in Kent and Clacton, Basildon and Southend could be targeted by UKip along with a few northern Labour marginals.
I think labour voters who hate Corbyn may defect.
I think the Lib dem turncoats can only get marginal remainer seats if they promise another referendum
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

Gavin Chipper
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 7606
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Gavin Chipper » Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:37 pm

Jennifer Steadman wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:14 pm
How big will the Tory landslide be?
I'm a bit worried about this one. I'm not going to get into a discussion about Jeremy Corbyn, but deciding that because you think he's a bit crap you're going to vote for the Tories is a bit like saying that your bike helmet looks a bit old and might not work properly so instead of wearing that you're going to repeatedly smash your head against a brick wall.

David Williams
Devotee
Posts: 903
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:57 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by David Williams » Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:52 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:37 pm
I'm not going to get into a discussion about Jeremy Corbyn, but deciding that because you think he's a bit crap you're going to vote for the Tories is a bit like saying that your bike helmet looks a bit old and might not work properly so instead of wearing that you're going to repeatedly smash your head against a brick wall.
I suspect that for a lot of people it's voting Labour that's more like smashing your head against a brick wall at present.

User avatar
JimBentley
Legend
Posts: 2574
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:39 pm
Location: Redcar, UK
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by JimBentley » Wed Apr 19, 2017 8:05 am

Sorry I'm late to the party but I had so much ELECTION FEVER yesterday I couldn't type properly!

Anyway, should be interesting. The consensus opinion seems to be that the Conservatives will be re-elected with a much-increased majority, but I wonder if that's going to happen? There are only so many seats that the Tories can gain, and having the whole election about Brexit means that Tory MPs are going to be challenged by the Lib Dems in Remain-voting areas, and if that becomes a big enough issue that they start losing seats, then what?

It's a really complicated picture this time round, especially if UKIP don't completely disappear. I'm quite excited. Also yes, Toby MUST stand again in Braintree - he's got some fantastic policies that are really going to turn the area around.

User avatar
JimBentley
Legend
Posts: 2574
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:39 pm
Location: Redcar, UK
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by JimBentley » Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:46 am

This seems pretty arrogant even for T. May: Theresa May says no to general election TV debates

Presumably there's nothing stopping debates being arranged anyway? The other party leaders could hardly turn them down now and the Conservatives could be represented by a balloon on a string with a frowny face drawn on it.

Gavin Chipper
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 7606
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Gavin Chipper » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:50 pm

JimBentley wrote:
Wed Apr 19, 2017 9:46 am
This seems pretty arrogant even for T. May: Theresa May says no to general election TV debates

Presumably there's nothing stopping debates being arranged anyway? The other party leaders could hardly turn them down now and the Conservatives could be represented by a balloon on a string with a frowny face drawn on it.
Well, yes. She shouldn't get to decide if there are any debates. Last time though David Cameron managed to refuse to do a debate and get away with it. Because he didn't want to do it, it got billed as an "opposition" debate and they threw out Nick Clegg as well, as he was also in government. They could do the same this time, but with no coalition, it would be pretty obvious that May is just dodging the debate whatever they decide to call it.

And anyway, if the problem is that these debates make it "too presidential", then she can always get another Tory to debate instead of her, and the public can decide what they want from that.

Gavin Chipper
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 7606
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Gavin Chipper » Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:54 pm

David Williams wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 10:52 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:37 pm
I'm not going to get into a discussion about Jeremy Corbyn, but deciding that because you think he's a bit crap you're going to vote for the Tories is a bit like saying that your bike helmet looks a bit old and might not work properly so instead of wearing that you're going to repeatedly smash your head against a brick wall.
I suspect that for a lot of people it's voting Labour that's more like smashing your head against a brick wall at present.
OK, but then voting Tory is like jumping head first off a cliff.

It annoys me how much of a free ride Theresa May has had as leader. It was just decided before she was leader that she was a "safe pair of hands" and that's just stuck. Whereas Corbyn was already a liability before he'd started. Sure, she might have had criticism in the press, but every piece of Corbyn criticism has been followed by "And this brings into question his capability as a leader", whereas May criticism has been contained to the one event without implications about her position generally. Well, I suppose she is a safe pair of hands. Oh no. Not a safe pair of hands. A cunt. That's right. She's a cunt.

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:52 pm

Maybe we might get the perfect storm of complacent tory voters not bothering to vote and a 99% turn out of labour supporters creating another hung parliament.
Either way we are faced between a cock and a hardface
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Wed Apr 19, 2017 5:53 pm

Maybe we might get the perfect storm of complacent tory voters not bothering to vote and a 99% turn out of labour supporters creating another hung parliament.
Either way we are faced between a cock and a hardface
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

User avatar
JimBentley
Legend
Posts: 2574
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:39 pm
Location: Redcar, UK
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by JimBentley » Wed Apr 19, 2017 6:33 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:54 pm
It annoys me how much of a free ride Theresa May has had as leader. It was just decided before she was leader that she was a "safe pair of hands" and that's just stuck.
Me too. Not even Thatcher at the peak of her popularity got this level of media sycophancy. And at least Thatcher, for all her faults, genuinely seemed to believe that what she was doing would be ultimately helpful for the country. She had values and principles that backed her views. Theresa May, at every turn, just does what is politically expedient for the Conservative Party. If she has principles or values, they would seem to be very fluid.

User avatar
Clive Brooker
Devotee
Posts: 500
Joined: Wed Feb 11, 2009 7:37 pm
Location: San Toy

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Clive Brooker » Thu Apr 20, 2017 7:42 am

Jennifer Steadman wrote:
Tue Apr 18, 2017 12:14 pm
- What was the fucking point of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act??
I think the Fixed Term Parliaments Act is a good thing. Just because we have the most inept opposition in history doesn't make it not so.

There was every reason for Labour to reject May's call for a GE, but Corbyn seems to be living in a weird parallel universe. He should've said "Fuck off, cuntface. Get on with your job. We'll see how popular you are in three years' time when you're supposed to have finished it."

It's looking like May will try to get through this saying absolutely nothing and still get a stonking majority. Of course whey can't reveal anything about any of their plans, can they? That would compromise our negotiating position. Yes of course we've got one. We're the upholders of the will of the people.

The most worrying thing, for me, is that the Tories will use this election to promote (or rather, slip through) the manifesto they've always wanted.

Theresa May has no principles or beliefs whatsoever. She follows whatever course best suits her career. It hardly seems credible that having lived through the Snatcher years, someone could make be long for some good old "conviction politics", but incredibly, May has done it.

The "empty lectern" debate must happen.

User avatar
JimBentley
Legend
Posts: 2574
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:39 pm
Location: Redcar, UK
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by JimBentley » Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:54 am

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Wed Apr 19, 2017 2:54 pm
It annoys me how much of a free ride Theresa May has had as leader.
And just to reinforce this point, the most trenchant political commentary (and pretty much the only anti-May narrative) that I've seen on TV this week came from the participants on Gogglebox last night. That's right, Gogglebox.

Something has gone seriously wrong with the media in this country.

User avatar
Ben Wilson
Legend
Posts: 3650
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:05 pm
Location: North Hykeham

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Ben Wilson » Sat Apr 22, 2017 8:10 pm

JimBentley wrote:
Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:54 am
Something has gone seriously wrong with the media in this country.
Yep.

Anthony Endsor
Enthusiast
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 3:55 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Anthony Endsor » Sun Apr 23, 2017 7:00 pm

Ben Wilson wrote:
Sat Apr 22, 2017 8:10 pm
JimBentley wrote:
Sat Apr 22, 2017 11:54 am
Something has gone seriously wrong with the media in this country.
Yep.
You mean it's taken all these years for you to realise? :lol:

User avatar
Ian Volante
Postmaster General
Posts: 3208
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:15 pm
Location: Edinburgh
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Ian Volante » Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:35 pm

Tories are obviously likely to win at the moment, but more than a 50 seat majority could be tough, and circumstances may work against them more than expected. Key points to take note of:
UKIP and SNP peaked last time, the only way is down.
Lib Dems bottomed out last time, the only way is up.
UKIP vote - where will it go?
Strong regional effects.
Much traction from tactical progressive voting?
meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles

User avatar
Jennifer Steadman
Devotee
Posts: 951
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Kent
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Jennifer Steadman » Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:51 pm

Ian Volante wrote:
Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:35 pm
Tories are obviously likely to win at the moment, but more than a 50 seat majority could be tough, and circumstances may work against them more than expected. Key points to take note of:
UKIP and SNP peaked last time, the only way is down.
Lib Dems bottomed out last time, the only way is up.
UKIP vote - where will it go?
Strong regional effects.
Much traction from tactical progressive voting?
Definitely agree with your UKIP/SNP/Lib Dem predictions. Polls are suggesting the Tories could win 12 seats in Scotland (+11) as they reinforce themselves as being the force for Unionism (although this doesn't seem to be the result of an increased antipathy towards IndyRef2: analysis by King Curtice), and potentially 21 in Wales (+10), because of Brexit seemingly... It's unclear where *enormous* Tory gains in England are coming from, regardless of Labour's vote potentially collapsing.

Don't see tactical progressive voting gaining more traction than in other elections given antipathy between Labour/Lib Dems (mostly hardcore Labour fans still being angry about LDs' coalition record and Lib Dems being angry about how Labour have handled Brexit). Will be very interesting to see how Kate Hoey v the Lib Dems in Vauxhall pans out.

More likely, and more likely to work, is parties tactically stepping aside to help each other despite there being no official pact. A few places where progressive parties ARE potentially standing aside are Ealing Central & Acton (Greens standing aside for Labour) and Guildford (Labour standing aside for Lib Dems)... however, with UKIP in dire straits both electorally and financially, it looks more likely that there might be a pro-Brexit alliance of sorts. Judging by polls, UKIP are haemorrhaging votes to the Tories anyway, so it might not make much of a difference. Doesn't look like many are defecting from UKIP to Labour though...

Most of this post is based on still trusting UK polls despite recent flops, so this'll be fun to read back in 6 weeks :')
proud tiara owner and annoying publicity person who tells you to click links to the the FOCAL website.

(and also to my TRAVEL BLOG)

User avatar
Jennifer Steadman
Devotee
Posts: 951
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Kent
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Jennifer Steadman » Tue Apr 25, 2017 8:52 pm

:idea: LESS DEPRESSING ELECTION STUFF: :idea:
- Gisela Allen, an aspiring UKIP councillor in Glasgow, gives her interesting opinions on the death penalty, golf courses and gorillas: (Part 1, Part 2)
- Tim Farron to stand against Fish Finger in his constituency
- John Curtice, aka the UK election maestro, is fast becoming the favoured meme of Political Twitter (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4.) A new outlet for the Milifandom, perhaps?
- What it's like to sort everything out in time for a snap election
- 1997 THROWBACK: What could have inspired John Major to step down

(Much as I hate politics, I also love politics.)
proud tiara owner and annoying publicity person who tells you to click links to the the FOCAL website.

(and also to my TRAVEL BLOG)

Noel Mc
Rookie
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:48 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Noel Mc » Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:07 am

I think in NI, what happened in the last Assembly Election will continue. Unionism is on the wane here. The Alliance party in particular are nabbing most of the moderate UUP supporters. DUP may grow slightly in their share of the vote, but only because they'll be subsuming the more conservative UUP followers.

It will be very interesting to see what happens if there isn't a Unionist majority of MPs after the election.

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:25 am

Noel Mc wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:07 am
I think in NI, what happened in the last Assembly Election will continue. Unionism is on the wane here. The Alliance party in particular are nabbing most of the moderate UUP supporters. DUP may grow slightly in their share of the vote, but only because they'll be subsuming the more conservative UUP followers.

It will be very interesting to see what happens if there isn't a Unionist majority of MPs after the election.
A better chance for a united Ireland
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:28 am

I do hope that the working class will not have to turn to the likes of Ukip to be represented.
The Labour party is such a shambles and only a new, new Labour, type shake up can save it.
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

User avatar
Ian Volante
Postmaster General
Posts: 3208
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:15 pm
Location: Edinburgh
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Ian Volante » Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:01 pm

Marc Meakin wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:28 am
I do hope that the working class will not have to turn to the likes of Ukip to be represented.
The Labour party is such a shambles and only a new, new Labour, type shake up can save it.
If its own MPs would get their heads out of their arses, things would work more smoothly. I don't think it's as bad as you make out, they've been under full media attack for a while, that really doesn't help.
meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles

User avatar
Innis Carson
Devotee
Posts: 876
Joined: Sat Nov 15, 2008 3:24 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Innis Carson » Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:53 pm

It's being reported that Corbyn won't be participating in TV debates if May doesn't. Why on earth? I'm struggling to think of any way to see how this isn't the stupidest tactical decision I've ever heard. Labour sorely needs a narrative-changer, and I'm in the perhaps overly-optimistic minority who thinks that a direct debate on TV (where Corbyn can show that he's not as much of a total idiot as he's routinely portrayed as, and May can be shown up as the utter lightweight she is) had at least a small chance of being one. But if they're going to pull out of the debates and let them be reduced to a total irrelevance (as May presumably hoped) then where else do they think the game-changer is going to come from?

Painful.

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Wed Apr 26, 2017 7:22 pm

Corby is beyond parody
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

Gavin Chipper
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 7606
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Gavin Chipper » Wed Apr 26, 2017 7:36 pm

Marc Meakin wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 7:22 pm
Corby is beyond parody
Can't disagree with that.

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:31 pm

Marc Meakin wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 7:22 pm
Corby is beyond parody
I did mean Corbyn, but if the cap fits :D
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

User avatar
JimBentley
Legend
Posts: 2574
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:39 pm
Location: Redcar, UK
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by JimBentley » Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:33 pm

Innis Carson wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:53 pm
It's being reported that Corbyn won't be participating in TV debates if May doesn't. Why on earth? I'm struggling to think of any way to see how this isn't the stupidest tactical decision I've ever heard.
I agree, I think it's a mistake. But I can kind of see the rationale behind the decision; this election is between the Conservatives and Labour, so any debate without one of the main parties is fairly redundant.

Also, remember when David Cameron wouldn't take part in a full debate in 2015 and the BBC went ahead with a "challenger's debate" instead? Instead of focusing on the Conservative Party's record in government (despite Ed Milliband's best efforts to steer the conversation in this direction), the minor party leaders instead chose to take pot-shots at Labour. And why wouldn't they? In the absence of the Conservatives, it provided a golden opportunity to eat into the Labour vote. Cameron almost certainly knew this and so - from the point of view of the Conservative Party - he was ultimately proved right not to take part.

The exact same thing would happen again if leadership debates were to go ahead without Theresa May. All the minor parties would turn their guns on Jeremy Corbyn and any criticism of the lamentable record of the ruling party would effectively be sidelined.

All that said, I hope something can be worked out so that a proper debate can take place. Although I'd quite like to see a debate between Tiny Tim Farron, Paul Nuttalls of the UKIPs and two empty chairs, as I'm pretty sure the chairs would win.

Anthony Endsor
Enthusiast
Posts: 316
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 3:55 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Anthony Endsor » Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:02 pm

You're right Jim. The chairs would win any political debate as they would be the only ones talking any sense. I'm sure we've all heard of the Ronan Keating song - you say it best 'when you say nothing at all' :lol:

So at this election we have the choice between an arrogant, incumbent PM who wants to increase her majority so she can force through tax rises without opposition, a Socialist, Communist sympathising, left wing moron, an ineffective, irrelevant former coalition partner with all 8 of their seats, or some other party who would hold a maximum of 1 seat in Parliament, unless you're in Scotland and you can vote for the party who want to split the UK in two.
What a wonderful time to be alive. Can't wait to see what the next 5 years have to offer. :roll:

User avatar
JimBentley
Legend
Posts: 2574
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:39 pm
Location: Redcar, UK
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by JimBentley » Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:14 pm

Anthony Endsor wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:02 pm
...a Socialist
Yes, god help us if the people actually doing the work get any kind of ownership of the fruits of their labour. Far better that the profits remain in the hands of a few people at the top of the tree. After all, they know best, don't they? And we wouldn't want the plebs getting above their station.

As for
Anthony Endsor wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:02 pm
Communist sympathising
I suspect when you use the word "Communist" you're attempting to conflate Corbyn's political standpoint with that of Stalin or Mao, and trying to insinuate that he must therefore be in favour of purges, pogroms and the very worst of early 20th century communist regimes. Things have changed. The British Communist Party (for what it's worth; I think they've less than a thousand members these days) aren't really like that any more:
Communist Party manifesto 2017 wrote:The working class and peoples of England, Scotland and Wales face a stark choice on June 8: whether to vote for more austerity, privatisation, growing inequality, militarism and war; or to elect a left-led Labour government with policies to enhance our public services, invest in industry and housing, combat poverty, safeguard the environment, liberate the trade unions, promote social justice and pursue an independent foreign policy based on peace and international solidarity.
And
Anthony Endsor wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:02 pm
left wing moron
"Moron" is an outdated and discredited term for somebody with an IQ between 51 and 70, although I suspect you were just using it in its more colloquial sense to be derogatory. Either way, it does your argument no favours. Maybe try articulating why you disagree with his policies instead of resorting to cheap insults?


Edit: Sorry, I was a bit aggressive there, no offence intended!

Paul Worsley
Rookie
Posts: 61
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2011 8:51 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Paul Worsley » Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:52 am

Anthony Endsor wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:02 pm
. I'm sure we've all heard of the Ronan Keating song - you say it best 'when you say nothing at all' :lol:
It's an Alison Krauss song. Ronan Keating hasn't got any songs.

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:43 pm

JimBentley wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 11:14 pm
Anthony Endsor wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:02 pm
...a Socialist
Yes, god help us if the people actually doing the work get any kind of ownership of the fruits of their labour. Far better that the profits remain in the hands of a few people at the top of the tree. After all, they know best, don't they? And we wouldn't want the plebs getting above their station.

As for
Anthony Endsor wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:02 pm
Communist sympathising
I suspect when you use the word "Communist" you're attempting to conflate Corbyn's political standpoint with that of Stalin or Mao, and trying to insinuate that he must therefore be in favour of purges, pogroms and the very worst of early 20th century communist regimes. Things have changed. The British Communist Party (for what it's worth; I think they've less than a thousand members these days) aren't really like that any more:
Communist Party manifesto 2017 wrote:The working class and peoples of England, Scotland and Wales face a stark choice on June 8: whether to vote for more austerity, privatisation, growing inequality, militarism and war; or to elect a left-led Labour government with policies to enhance our public services, invest in industry and housing, combat poverty, safeguard the environment, liberate the trade unions, promote social justice and pursue an independent foreign policy based on peace and international solidarity.
And
Anthony Endsor wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:02 pm
left wing moron
"Moron" is an outdated and discredited term for somebody with an IQ between 51 and 70, although I suspect you were just using it in its more colloquial sense to be derogatory. Either way, it does your argument no favours. Maybe try articulating why you disagree with his policies instead of resorting to cheap insults?


Edit: Sorry, I was a bit aggressive there, no offence intended!
pwned
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Fri Apr 28, 2017 3:46 pm

Paul Worsley wrote:
Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:52 am
Anthony Endsor wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:02 pm
. I'm sure we've all heard of the Ronan Keating song - you say it best 'when you say nothing at all' :lol:
It's an Alison Krauss song. Ronan Keating hasn't got any songs.
Lost for words.........is a song writen by Ronan Keating
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

Noel Mc
Rookie
Posts: 32
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 8:48 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Noel Mc » Fri Apr 28, 2017 5:50 pm

Paul Worsley wrote:
Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:52 am
Anthony Endsor wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:02 pm
. I'm sure we've all heard of the Ronan Keating song - you say it best 'when you say nothing at all' :lol:
It's an Alison Krauss song. Ronan Keating hasn't got any songs.
Never heard 'Life is a Rollercoaster'? Quality tune

User avatar
Ian Volante
Postmaster General
Posts: 3208
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:15 pm
Location: Edinburgh
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Ian Volante » Fri May 05, 2017 12:17 pm

Noel Mc wrote:
Fri Apr 28, 2017 5:50 pm
Paul Worsley wrote:
Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:52 am
Anthony Endsor wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 9:02 pm
. I'm sure we've all heard of the Ronan Keating song - you say it best 'when you say nothing at all' :lol:
It's an Alison Krauss song. Ronan Keating hasn't got any songs.
Never heard 'Life is a Rollercoaster'? Quality tune
He didn't write it.
meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles

User avatar
JimBentley
Legend
Posts: 2574
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:39 pm
Location: Redcar, UK
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by JimBentley » Fri May 05, 2017 2:15 pm

Ian Volante wrote:
Fri May 05, 2017 12:17 pm
Noel Mc wrote:
Fri Apr 28, 2017 5:50 pm
Paul Worsley wrote:
Fri Apr 28, 2017 10:52 am


It's an Alison Krauss song. Ronan Keating hasn't got any songs.
Never heard 'Life is a Rollercoaster'? Quality tune
He didn't write it.
Yes, it was Greg whatsit out of the New Radicals, wasn't it? Which presumably explains why it sounds almost exactly like "You Get What You Give".

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Fri May 05, 2017 2:35 pm

JimBentley wrote:
Fri May 05, 2017 2:15 pm
Ian Volante wrote:
Fri May 05, 2017 12:17 pm
Noel Mc wrote:
Fri Apr 28, 2017 5:50 pm


Never heard 'Life is a Rollercoaster'? Quality tune
He didn't write it.
Yes, it was Greg whatsit out of the New Radicals, wasn't it? Which presumably explains why it sounds almost exactly like "You Get What You Give".
The New Radicals tune is sublime, Life is a Rollercoaster is average at best
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

User avatar
Ian Volante
Postmaster General
Posts: 3208
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:15 pm
Location: Edinburgh
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Ian Volante » Sat May 06, 2017 11:29 pm

Marc Meakin wrote:
Fri May 05, 2017 2:35 pm
JimBentley wrote:
Fri May 05, 2017 2:15 pm
Ian Volante wrote:
Fri May 05, 2017 12:17 pm


He didn't write it.
Yes, it was Greg whatsit out of the New Radicals, wasn't it? Which presumably explains why it sounds almost exactly like "You Get What You Give".
The New Radicals tune is sublime, Life is a Rollercoaster is average at best
It's about as sublime as pouring concrete in my ears.
meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Devotee
Posts: 888
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Thomas Carey » Sun May 07, 2017 3:21 am

No
signature

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Devotee
Posts: 888
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Thomas Carey » Sun May 07, 2017 3:22 am

No
signature

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Sun May 07, 2017 9:09 am

No, no , no no , no no, no no there's no limits
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Sun May 07, 2017 9:14 am

Ian Volante wrote:
Sat May 06, 2017 11:29 pm
Marc Meakin wrote:
Fri May 05, 2017 2:35 pm
JimBentley wrote:
Fri May 05, 2017 2:15 pm


Yes, it was Greg whatsit out of the New Radicals, wasn't it? Which presumably explains why it sounds almost exactly like "You Get What You Give".
The New Radicals tune is sublime, Life is a Rollercoaster is average at best
It's about as sublime as pouring concrete in my ears.
From who's perspective 😀
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

User avatar
JimBentley
Legend
Posts: 2574
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:39 pm
Location: Redcar, UK
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by JimBentley » Sun May 07, 2017 9:15 am

Thomas Carey wrote:
Sun May 07, 2017 3:21 am
No
Thomas Carey wrote:
Sun May 07, 2017 3:22 am
No
Wise words there from Thomas.

Anybody got any thoughts about the local/mayoral elections last week? Major shock here in the Tees Valley mayoral election, with the Conservative candidate narrowly winning (even though the local Labour-dominated councils are much-criticised, Labour candidate Sue Jeffrey was still widely expected to win). Turnout was an abysmally low 21%, which is a bit depressing.

I don't think it was any major surprise that the Conservatives made large gains and Labour lost loads of seats. However, the Lib Dem "surge" turned out to be a bit of a damp squib and whilst there isn't necessarily much read-across between local and national elections, they (and Labour) must be a bit worried about their prospects next month, not least because it looks as though a lot of UKIP votes from last time seem to be transferring directly to the Tories. If indeed this is reproduced in the General Election, it's going to push a lot of Conservative candidates over the line in seats where they previously came 2nd (or even 3rd). Worrying (if you're not of the Conservative persuasion).

User avatar
Ian Volante
Postmaster General
Posts: 3208
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:15 pm
Location: Edinburgh
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Ian Volante » Mon May 08, 2017 11:59 am

JimBentley wrote:
Sun May 07, 2017 9:15 am
Thomas Carey wrote:
Sun May 07, 2017 3:21 am
No
Thomas Carey wrote:
Sun May 07, 2017 3:22 am
No
Wise words there from Thomas.

Anybody got any thoughts about the local/mayoral elections last week? Major shock here in the Tees Valley mayoral election, with the Conservative candidate narrowly winning (even though the local Labour-dominated councils are much-criticised, Labour candidate Sue Jeffrey was still widely expected to win). Turnout was an abysmally low 21%, which is a bit depressing.

I don't think it was any major surprise that the Conservatives made large gains and Labour lost loads of seats. However, the Lib Dem "surge" turned out to be a bit of a damp squib and whilst there isn't necessarily much read-across between local and national elections, they (and Labour) must be a bit worried about their prospects next month, not least because it looks as though a lot of UKIP votes from last time seem to be transferring directly to the Tories. If indeed this is reproduced in the General Election, it's going to push a lot of Conservative candidates over the line in seats where they previously came 2nd (or even 3rd). Worrying (if you're not of the Conservative persuasion).
Using a bit of guesstimation based on last week's results, I've now got the Tories at about 375, Labour about 170, Lib Dems ~20, Greens 2, SNP down below 50, UKIP lol. Tory majority of around 100. About 60 seats changing hands, mostly away from Labour. Long way to go yet, but Corbyn needs to work very hard, as if we didn't already know that.
meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Mon May 08, 2017 2:54 pm

May could kill a baby live on air and the Tories would still get in
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

User avatar
JimBentley
Legend
Posts: 2574
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:39 pm
Location: Redcar, UK
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by JimBentley » Mon May 08, 2017 6:13 pm

Ian Volante wrote:
Mon May 08, 2017 11:59 am
Using a bit of guesstimation based on last week's results, I've now got the Tories at about 375, Labour about 170, Lib Dems ~20, Greens 2, SNP down below 50, UKIP lol. Tory majority of around 100. About 60 seats changing hands, mostly away from Labour. Long way to go yet, but Corbyn needs to work very hard, as if we didn't already know that.
I'm having a mess around with this too, using the results at the last election (or by-election) then adjusting them up or down according to where I think the votes are going to go this time (i.e. guessing). I'm going for CON 402 - LAB 163 - LIB 10 - SNP 51 - Plaid 4 - Green 2 - UKIP 0. Lots of CON gains from LAB in England, some CON/SNP/LIB swapping in Scotland, Greens to hold Brighton Pavilion and gain Bristol West, Plaid to hold their three existing seats and gain Ynys Mon. But a lot of the seats that look as though they have the potential to change hands also look likely to be marginal constituencies, so there could still be quite a lot of volatility in that prediction.

User avatar
Ian Volante
Postmaster General
Posts: 3208
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:15 pm
Location: Edinburgh
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Ian Volante » Tue May 09, 2017 12:50 pm

JimBentley wrote:
Mon May 08, 2017 6:13 pm
Ian Volante wrote:
Mon May 08, 2017 11:59 am
Using a bit of guesstimation based on last week's results, I've now got the Tories at about 375, Labour about 170, Lib Dems ~20, Greens 2, SNP down below 50, UKIP lol. Tory majority of around 100. About 60 seats changing hands, mostly away from Labour. Long way to go yet, but Corbyn needs to work very hard, as if we didn't already know that.
I'm having a mess around with this too, using the results at the last election (or by-election) then adjusting them up or down according to where I think the votes are going to go this time (i.e. guessing). I'm going for CON 402 - LAB 163 - LIB 10 - SNP 51 - Plaid 4 - Green 2 - UKIP 0. Lots of CON gains from LAB in England, some CON/SNP/LIB swapping in Scotland, Greens to hold Brighton Pavilion and gain Bristol West, Plaid to hold their three existing seats and gain Ynys Mon. But a lot of the seats that look as though they have the potential to change hands also look likely to be marginal constituencies, so there could still be quite a lot of volatility in that prediction.
I wonder if you're allocating more of the UKIP vote to the Tories that I am - that's the big variable to my mind. Also, the Tory resurgence in Scotland I think is more notable than you have. Agree with Anglesey and Bristol West though.
meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles

User avatar
JimBentley
Legend
Posts: 2574
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 6:39 pm
Location: Redcar, UK
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by JimBentley » Tue May 09, 2017 2:02 pm

Ian Volante wrote:
Tue May 09, 2017 12:50 pm

I wonder if you're allocating more of the UKIP vote to the Tories that I am - that's the big variable to my mind. Also, the Tory resurgence in Scotland I think is more notable than you have. Agree with Anglesey and Bristol West though.
Yes, I think you're right on all those, so I've made a few changes to my exciting guesswork model: I've got estimates of the leave vote from the EU referendum in each constituency, so have attempted to relate these figures to the amount of (mainly UKIP) votes that would be up for going elsewhere this time. Plus my last one was done on the turnout from the 2015 election (about 66.5%) whereas for this one, I've adjusted the predicted votes down - just crudely by party (Labour turnout probably expected to be more hit than Conservative etc.) - and overall turnout comes out at about 62%, which I reckon will be closer to turnout this time.

Anyway, it's now even more depressing!

CON 408 - LAB 157 - LIB 14 - UKIP 0 - Green 2 - SNP 47 - Plaid 4

As a percentage of the vote, this would be CON 45.5% - LAB 26.5% - LIB 11.9% - UKIP 6.3% - Green 4.3% - SNP 3.9% - Plaid 0.7%

It's still very crude, in that it assumes a lot from last time - i.e. that parties stand where they did last time, which won't be the case - and doesn't take into account that changes will be different in different regions, etc. etc. But it's fun to mess around with (well, "fun" might not be the right word there).

User avatar
Jennifer Steadman
Devotee
Posts: 951
Joined: Fri Jun 10, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Kent
Contact:

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Jennifer Steadman » Wed May 10, 2017 6:11 pm

My friend Ross made a 'choose your own adventure' election game for the second consecutive election, for some light relief.
proud tiara owner and annoying publicity person who tells you to click links to the the FOCAL website.

(and also to my TRAVEL BLOG)

Gavin Chipper
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 7606
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Gavin Chipper » Thu May 11, 2017 12:59 pm

JimBentley wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 8:33 pm
Innis Carson wrote:
Wed Apr 26, 2017 1:53 pm
It's being reported that Corbyn won't be participating in TV debates if May doesn't. Why on earth? I'm struggling to think of any way to see how this isn't the stupidest tactical decision I've ever heard.
I agree, I think it's a mistake. But I can kind of see the rationale behind the decision; this election is between the Conservatives and Labour, so any debate without one of the main parties is fairly redundant.

Also, remember when David Cameron wouldn't take part in a full debate in 2015 and the BBC went ahead with a "challenger's debate" instead? Instead of focusing on the Conservative Party's record in government (despite Ed Milliband's best efforts to steer the conversation in this direction), the minor party leaders instead chose to take pot-shots at Labour. And why wouldn't they? In the absence of the Conservatives, it provided a golden opportunity to eat into the Labour vote. Cameron almost certainly knew this and so - from the point of view of the Conservative Party - he was ultimately proved right not to take part.

The exact same thing would happen again if leadership debates were to go ahead without Theresa May. All the minor parties would turn their guns on Jeremy Corbyn and any criticism of the lamentable record of the ruling party would effectively be sidelined.
I was thinking about this while on my run today. I can see your point Jim, but Corbyn and Labour are currently way behind, and need to do something about it. Not taking part in these debates is very much the conservative (not Conservative, although it appears that it is that too) option. But when you're in Labour's position, that's not the option to take. The debates could go badly for Labour in which case they'll lose an election they were going to lose anyway, or they could go well, in which case they could make up a lot of ground (I'm not going to say they could win, but that's obviously the hope). In the position they're in, they need to roll the dice. It's absolutely insane just to take the nothing option when you're this far behind so close to the election.

And yes, Innis, Theresa May is a complete lightweight but for some reason gets away with it.

User avatar
Marc Meakin
Fanatic
Posts: 2734
Joined: Wed May 20, 2009 3:37 pm

Re: (I Think I'm Going To) Snap General Election Poll

Post by Marc Meakin » Thu May 11, 2017 4:40 pm

For once, I think Corbyn is right to duck any TV debates if Mrs May is not present as the less you see of him the more chance Labour has of doing well.
All other parties would attack Corbyn as they cannot attack May.
Its a bit like when England are crap at football and the injured or absent players are spared from a pasting from the masses
GR MSL GNDT MSS NGVWL SRND NNLYC NNCT

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests