COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Fiona T » Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:42 am

Blimey guys, lay off Rhys FFS.

If someone's struggling, have some empathy and think about the effect your comments may have.

Hope you feel better soon Rhys.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Ian Fitzpatrick » Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:05 am

I hope Rhys has got someone looking out for him

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Mark James » Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:50 pm

I do have empathy and sympathy for Rhys. The lockdown is tough and I hope he has decent support. But I also think changing his politics would be a benefit to him as well as everyone else and would be an additional step to him feeling better.

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Gavin Chipper » Sat Jan 23, 2021 1:27 pm

Rhys knows we all love him and want the best for him.

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Fiona T » Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:13 pm

Mark James wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:50 pm
I do have empathy and sympathy for Rhys. The lockdown is tough and I hope he has decent support. But I also think changing his politics would be a benefit to him as well as everyone else and would be an additional step to him feeling better.
Well I disagree with that. If we all shared the same political views then politics would become more extreme and we'd end up with reeducation camps for anyone who dared challenge the prevailing view. What we have may not be perfect but it's a darned site better than communist china. I'm all for healthy debate, but the absolute polarisation that has been prevalent in recent years is divisive and unhealthy.

My natural leanings are left wing, but some of the hatred and demonisation I've seen from the left towards anyone who disagrees with their views, and a refusal to recognise that people may hold different views for sound reasons - and some of those views may even have merit - is really disturbing.

I'm sure it never used to be like this. It seems to me that this sort of polarisation started with the Scottish Referendum, but maybe that's just the first time I noticed it.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Callum Todd » Sat Jan 23, 2021 5:46 pm

Totally agree with Fiona, hope you're okay Rhys. Please reach out if you need some support.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Marc Meakin » Sat Jan 23, 2021 5:52 pm

Callum Todd wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 5:46 pm
Totally agree with Fiona, hope you're okay Rhys. Please reach out if you need some support.
I would like to think his support network would reach further than here.
But I will add my support and as Fiona has said it takes all sorts to make a world
Not keen on the tories but I doubt that labour would have habdled this pandenic much better
Well maybe education
Last edited by Marc Meakin on Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Adam Gillard » Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:51 pm

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:52 pm
I am sick and tired
[...]
you really don’t understand how much we are suffering
[...]
The cure, for me, and for many, is worse than the virus could ever have been
[...]
leaves me at the end of my tether
[...]
it’s ruined my life by prolonging the misery longer than it needed to be
[...]
Throw in a laptop that has mood swings like a teenager and I'm just in a horrible place
Horribly self-indulgent post with no sense of perspective of people who have truly suffered and had their lives torn apart by losing family members and others to COVID. Use of language like "sick" and "suffering" just makes it worse. You should be ashamed of yourself on reading this back. You've implied that you don't care about the vulnerable as long as you personally would have been fine without a lockdown, riding out COVID with minimal symptoms. Think about others, Rhys.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Mark James » Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:59 pm

Sorry folks but Rhys is not some milquetoast centrist. If you say we need to avoid political extremes to maintain some sort of happy middle ground then Rhys is still going to have to adjust his politics to get anywhere close to that.

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Mark Deeks » Sat Jan 23, 2021 8:16 pm

Adam Gillard wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 7:51 pm
Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:52 pm
I am sick and tired
[...]
you really don’t understand how much we are suffering
[...]
The cure, for me, and for many, is worse than the virus could ever have been
[...]
leaves me at the end of my tether
[...]
it’s ruined my life by prolonging the misery longer than it needed to be
[...]
Throw in a laptop that has mood swings like a teenager and I'm just in a horrible place
Horribly self-indulgent post with no sense of perspective of people who have truly suffered and had their lives torn apart by losing family members and others to COVID. Use of language like "sick" and "suffering" just makes it worse. You should be ashamed of yourself on reading this back. You've implied that you don't care about the vulnerable as long as you personally would have been fine without a lockdown, riding out COVID with minimal symptoms. Think about others, Rhys.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Gavin Chipper » Sat Jan 23, 2021 9:25 pm

On the politics thing, yes people are entitled to their own views, but an important part of politics is trying to persuade others of your viewpoint. It's not like favourite colours where it's just arbitrary and all views are equally right (actually, bad example - yellow is the best colour) - these things matter and lives are affected by them, and so people are rightly passionate about their views and want to change other people's minds. But I don't think much demonisation exists on this forum. I don't think that people who vote Conservative are generally speaking inherently evil, even if some specific Conservative MPs might be!

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Mark James » Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:43 am

Fiona T wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:13 pm

My natural leanings are left wing, but some of the hatred and demonisation I've seen from the left towards anyone who disagrees with their views, and a refusal to recognise that people may hold different views for sound reasons - and some of those views may even have merit - is really disturbing.
Can you give an example of a view that was arrived at through sound reasoning that someone was demonised for holding?

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:00 am

Fiona T wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:13 pm
Mark James wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:50 pm
I do have empathy and sympathy for Rhys. The lockdown is tough and I hope he has decent support. But I also think changing his politics would be a benefit to him as well as everyone else and would be an additional step to him feeling better.
Well I disagree with that. If we all shared the same political views then politics would become more extreme and we'd end up with reeducation camps for anyone who dared challenge the prevailing view.
Fiona, you are talking to the dude who boycotts Co:Wat annually cuz I voted "No" on gay marriage lol, so I think you're wasting your breath here with any talk of respecting differences of opinion, esp. with regard to political left vs right.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Marc Meakin » Sun Jan 24, 2021 9:57 am

I think peoples mental health has been severely tested during Covid and especially Lockdown and as someone who has mental health issues ( read some of my posts from 10 years ago for context) can sympathise with people whose outbursts suggest some sort of mental health issue.
Btw I am not suggesting all Tory supporters have mental health issues.
I just wanted to clarify that that is where my support of him lies with having to cope with this.
But my sympathies are for everyone not coping.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Elliott Mellor » Sun Jan 24, 2021 10:53 am

L'oisleatch McGraw wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:00 am
Fiona T wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:13 pm
Mark James wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:50 pm
I do have empathy and sympathy for Rhys. The lockdown is tough and I hope he has decent support. But I also think changing his politics would be a benefit to him as well as everyone else and would be an additional step to him feeling better.
Well I disagree with that. If we all shared the same political views then politics would become more extreme and we'd end up with reeducation camps for anyone who dared challenge the prevailing view.
Fiona, you are talking to the dude who boycotts Co:Wat annually cuz I voted "No" on gay marriage lol, so I think you're wasting your breath here with any talk of respecting differences of opinion, esp. with regard to political left vs right.
Just to slightly deviate from the topic at hand, might one enquire why you voted "no"?

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Mark James » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:01 am

L'oisleatch McGraw wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:00 am
Fiona T wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 3:13 pm
Mark James wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 12:50 pm
I do have empathy and sympathy for Rhys. The lockdown is tough and I hope he has decent support. But I also think changing his politics would be a benefit to him as well as everyone else and would be an additional step to him feeling better.
Well I disagree with that. If we all shared the same political views then politics would become more extreme and we'd end up with reeducation camps for anyone who dared challenge the prevailing view.
Fiona, you are talking to the dude who boycotts Co:Wat annually cuz I voted "No" on gay marriage lol, so I think you're wasting your breath here with any talk of respecting differences of opinion, esp. with regard to political left vs right.
Yes. We need more diversity of opinion such as it's fine to discriminate based on sexuality otherwise it'll be gulags.

Seriously though, I'm not going to lie and say the fact I think you're an insufferable reactionary didn't factor in to my decision to not spend time and money to partake in an activity I don't particularly enjoy but you'll notice I don't go to any Co events or play on apterous anymore and it's nothing to do with politics of anyone involved.

As for respecting differences of opinion, it just seems to me that whenever I'm asked to do so, the opinions I'm being asked to respect involve discrimination, science denial or other such opinions that lead to people suffering. People are aware of the paradox of tolerance yes?

Look there's douchebags of all political persuasions, especially on the Internet. I just find this notion that the left are uniquely intolerant compared to the right is completely overblown. I wanna hear about policy proposals and what impact they will have on people's lives, not about someone getting yelled at on twitter.

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Fiona T » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:31 am

Mark James wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:01 am

Look there's douchebags of all political persuasions, especially on the Internet. I just find this notion that the left are uniquely intolerant compared to the right is completely overblown. I wanna hear about policy proposals and what impact they will have on people's lives, not about someone getting yelled at on twitter.
Oh I don't for one moment think it's confined to the left - my dismay extends to both sides - I see more of it from the left as the vast majority of my friends are left wing. It's the divisiveness of it all I hate, and the refusal to acknowledge flaws in one's own side or merits in the other. But this probably isn't the thread for it.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Marc Meakin » Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:31 am

I think i have a higher tolerance of other peoples beliefs mainly because my parents and most of the people I grew up with were out of the closet racist, homophobic sexist bigots but it didnt stop me loving my parents and having SOME if these people as friends.
I worry aabout the binary attitude of you are eithet with us or against us.
Woke or cancelled.
Social media, especialy twitter and facebook is lagely responsible for this.
Debate is what is needed and not shutting people up.
Its basically the other side of the coin of fascism.
We still live in a free country after all
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by James Haughton » Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:37 pm

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Thu Jan 21, 2021 10:52 pm
I am sick and tired of the BBC and Sky telling us we need longer and harder lockdown.

Lockdowns should be a last resort, and if you don’t think so then you really don’t understand how much we are suffering.

Perhaps journalists, WHO ARE EXEMPT FROM LOCKDOWN, shouldn’t be celebrating with glee like Beth Rigby was back in November about lockdown announcements.

All to “protect” an outdated and bureaucratic health service in dire need of scrapping and restarting from scratch anyway. Lockdowns 1 and 3 at least had this justification, lockdown 2 never did.

The cure, for me, and for many, is worse than the virus could ever have been. So to hear the likes of Neil Ferguson say we should be in full lockdown until May (then what’s the fucking point of the fucking vaccine!?) just leaves me at the end of my tether.

SAGE have got it wrong at every stage and I’ve had it up to here with them, it’s ruined my life by prolonging the misery longer than it needed to be. Flattening the curve is exactly what that did.

Since 5 Nov we have had just 3 weeks out of lockdown here in London.

Throw in a laptop that has mood swings like a teenager and I'm just in a horrible place.
Firstly, I am very sorry to hear that you are struggling. I do sincerely hope that your mental health improves.

However, I disagree strongly with the rest of your post. You seem to think that the government and Parliament, with its significant Tory majority, are completely blameless in your current situation. They are not powerless, you realise. They've shaped this country's response to the pandemic, and they are ultimately to blame. Lockdowns should be a last resort, but when 1800 people per day are dying, you better believe we're in last resort territory. Do you actually have any evidence to back up that Beth Rigby was gleeful at the announcement of a lockdown, rather than just grimly accepting that it was a necessity?

That sentence about the cure being worse than the virus is, I'm sorry to be blunt, just nasty and selfish. It is an infectious disease that is infectious before you start displaying symptoms; if you get it, you are likely to pass it on to others, who may be at a much higher risk of serious injury and death. Also, how do you know that you're gonna be safe from death or serious long-term health complications? We still don't for certain how covid-19 affects sufferers in the long term. Do you want to take that risk, especially as it's likely that you'll be feeling really poorly for a couple of weeks at the very least? No offence, Rhys, Grigor Dimitrov, Jamaal Lascelles, and Alain Saint-Maximin are all athletes in much better condition than you, and they've all had it pretty bad.

Let's get into politics now, then. You call the NHS outdated and bureaucratic, why do you feel that universal healthcare is outdated and bureaucratic? Come on Rhys, your side talks about snowflakes all the time, so say what you really think. You don't view healthcare as a universal right and you want people who can't afford procedures or insurance to not receive medical care or bankrupt themselves in the name of economic conservatism. The evidence is clear that the performance of the NHS has worsened significantly since the Tories took over 2010 and inflicted their brutal, misguided austerity on the people of this country.

You say SAGE has got it wrong throughout, but what about when SAGE implored the PM to lockdown over Christmas/New Years' 3 weeks earlier than he did? Do you think SAGE got that wrong? Of course they didn't: thousands are dying, our NHS is overwhelmed because of this Tory government's shameful decision-making. Coronavirus couldn't have picked a better chancellor than Sunak: how much pain and death has Eat Out to Help Out caused? He's been dragged kicking and screaming to offer workers financial support in a global pandemic; even now, loads of workplaces are open unnecessarily because Sunak, Boris, and the rest of the Tories think people's health and economic performance are mutually exclusive rather than intimately linked. They don't want to give people the financial support to concentrate on surviving a pandemic, that should be an eye-opener to everyone who needs it.

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by James Haughton » Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:42 pm

Marc Meakin wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 5:52 pm
Callum Todd wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 5:46 pm
Totally agree with Fiona, hope you're okay Rhys. Please reach out if you need some support.
I would like to think his support network would reach further than here.
But I will add my support and as Fiona has said it takes all sorts to make a world
Not keen on the tories but I doubt that labour would have habdled this pandenic much better
Well maybe education
Nearly 100k dead, worst death rate, per capita, in the world. Loads of people and small businesses still not provided with financial support to get through this pandemic. Even people who need to self-isolate still not provided with the financial support to do so. Government U-turns aplenty because people's health is at the bottom of their priorities, disparities between the education of children amplified because poorer kids are more likely to have inadequate internet (but at least we avoided broadband communism), equipment or space.

Pretty big claim to doubt that Labour would have done much better.

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Marc Meakin » Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:35 pm

James Haughton wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 12:42 pm
Marc Meakin wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 5:52 pm
Callum Todd wrote:
Sat Jan 23, 2021 5:46 pm
Totally agree with Fiona, hope you're okay Rhys. Please reach out if you need some support.
I would like to think his support network would reach further than here.
But I will add my support and as Fiona has said it takes all sorts to make a world
Not keen on the tories but I doubt that labour would have habdled this pandenic much better
Well maybe education
Nearly 100k dead, worst death rate, per capita, in the world. Loads of people and small businesses still not provided with financial support to get through this pandemic. Even people who need to self-isolate still not provided with the financial support to do so. Government U-turns aplenty because people's health is at the bottom of their priorities, disparities between the education of children amplified because poorer kids are more likely to have inadequate internet (but at least we avoided broadband communism), equipment or space.

Pretty big claim to doubt that Labour would have done much better.
As a life long socialist i would say that Labour would have done things differently with a lot of compassion and we would have locked down earlier and for longer schools would have closed and probably free internet and laptops for children.
I beg to think how we would pay for it though.
I also doubt that the amount of deaths would be much smaller either.
Not sure if the vaccine would have been here yet neither
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Ian Volante » Mon Jan 25, 2021 1:32 pm

Fiona T wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:31 am
Mark James wrote:
Sun Jan 24, 2021 11:01 am

Look there's douchebags of all political persuasions, especially on the Internet. I just find this notion that the left are uniquely intolerant compared to the right is completely overblown. I wanna hear about policy proposals and what impact they will have on people's lives, not about someone getting yelled at on twitter.
Oh I don't for one moment think it's confined to the left - my dismay extends to both sides - I see more of it from the left as the vast majority of my friends are left wing. It's the divisiveness of it all I hate, and the refusal to acknowledge flaws in one's own side or merits in the other. But this probably isn't the thread for it.
I generally feel like it's more likely for certain views to be presented as if they're built on a host of incontrovertible truths, when it's often a stretch conclusion hidden beyond a field of strawmen, and there's so much energy wasted on beating down those strawmen that the fundamental untruths remain unchallenged. It's frustrating and tiring to have to do the same work over and over again.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Mon Jan 25, 2021 2:06 pm

Right, so...

I was having something of a breakdown on Thursday when I posted that and in hindsight, I probably shouldn't have posted it on C4C. That said, I do stand by most of what I said, and I'd be happy to clarify and discuss some of the specifics in James's post in particular in due course, but not at the moment if that's OK.

I'm still not quite 100% but I'm feeling much better than I did.

I would just like to share this post from someone I know:
One of the most annoying things about lockdown is that we're made to feel like we cannot be mentally exhausted.

I know the lockdown is for the greater good and is necessary, but that doesn't mean I can't not be mentally fed up with it.

I'm sure there are some people out there who actually want this. They're enjoying it.
Probably put it better than I did.

Edit: I've completely forgotten to say - thank you for those of who who have messaged me, I haven't got round to replying to you all yet
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Marc Meakin » Mon Jan 25, 2021 3:03 pm

Glad you didnt do anything silly Rhys like join the Conservative party 😊.
Everyone is suffering more during this lockdown apart from maybe agoraphobics and minor tv celebrities.

Remember one thing that Confucious said many years ago and to paraphrase.
Opinions are like arseholes, everybody has one.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Gavin Chipper » Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:17 pm

Before anyone tries to move any goalposts, it's quite clear that "by May" means before the beginning of May.

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Callum Todd » Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:44 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:17 pm
Before anyone tries to move any goalposts, it's quite clear that "by May" means before the beginning of May.
Does anyone get the apparent obsession with setting targets (specifically in the context of covid response, I'm aware it's a wider trend in politics but let's keep it on topic for now if possible)? I remember it was a big thing earlier in the pandemic with the 100,000 tests a week thing back when mass testing was new. Now it's the same thing but with vaccines.

It seems to me that it probably doesn't make any difference apart from set them (them being the government, in this case) up to fail if they don't meet the target, as Gavin seems to be anticipating by saying "before anyone tries to move any goalposts...". Am I missing something?
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:48 pm

Callum Todd wrote:
Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:44 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:17 pm
Before anyone tries to move any goalposts, it's quite clear that "by May" means before the beginning of May.
Does anyone get the apparent obsession with setting targets (specifically in the context of covid response, I'm aware it's a wider trend in politics but let's keep it on topic for now if possible)? I remember it was a big thing earlier in the pandemic with the 100,000 tests a week thing back when mass testing was new. Now it's the same thing but with vaccines.

It seems to me that it probably doesn't make any difference apart from set them (them being the government, in this case) up to fail if they don't meet the target, as Gavin seems to be anticipating by saying "before anyone tries to move any goalposts...". Am I missing something?
In the case of the May thing it's presumably to avoid questions about a lack of exit strategy (which the lame-stream media have already started to talk about). The 100,000 tests thing was about showing strong and stable leadership by making sure that we did not rest on our laurels. And our constant expansion of testing is a very good thing, and now nearly 750,000 tests a day are done. That's an incredible figure and means the % positivity rate is now around 6% which is still above what the WHO say means the pandemic is "under control" (5%) but shows that the decline in case numbers is not a case of low testing.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Callum Todd » Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:45 pm

I suppose the bit I don't get is really the specific time/number based but of it. Obviously it makes sense to plan to do good stuff, do lots of it, and do it as soon as possible. But why isn't that enough? Why "100,000 tests a week by this time" or "everyone vaccinated by May" rather than "as many tests a week as possible, starting now and expanding as rapidly as possible" or "everyone vaccinated as soon as possible"?
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Gavin Chipper » Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:12 pm

It seems a bit weird. It like when Boris Johnson keeps saying stuff like "We hope to be back to normal by Christmas" etc. It's better to under-promise and over-deliver than vice versa.

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Fiona T » Sun Feb 07, 2021 7:41 am

Callum Todd wrote:
Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:45 pm
I suppose the bit I don't get is really the specific time/number based but of it. Obviously it makes sense to plan to do good stuff, do lots of it, and do it as soon as possible. But why isn't that enough? Why "100,000 tests a week by this time" or "everyone vaccinated by May" rather than "as many tests a week as possible, starting now and expanding as rapidly as possible" or "everyone vaccinated as soon as possible"?
Well it's accountability and transparency, which are generally good things I think.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Callum Todd » Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:57 pm

Fiona T wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 7:41 am
Callum Todd wrote:
Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:45 pm
I suppose the bit I don't get is really the specific time/number based but of it. Obviously it makes sense to plan to do good stuff, do lots of it, and do it as soon as possible. But why isn't that enough? Why "100,000 tests a week by this time" or "everyone vaccinated by May" rather than "as many tests a week as possible, starting now and expanding as rapidly as possible" or "everyone vaccinated as soon as possible"?
Well it's accountability and transparency, which are generally good things I think.
Yeah I suppose that's what they're going for. I'm just not sure if numeric or time-based targets achieve it. In my estimation everyone is accountable for their actions in everything at all times; setting targets doesn't generate the accountability so much as it just places "the goalposts" for the accountability that already exists. And I suppose it's more transparent in that they're telling you ahead of time where "the goalposts" are so they can't just wait until after the fact and claim that "the goalposts" were always where they ended up shooting. But what if they got the target wrong? If they set it too high and fail then that just means they set a bad target not that they performed poorly, and if they set the target too low and overachieve that just means they set a softball target not that they did really well. Maybe this slightly cynical approach to transparency is necessary given the (mostly justified) lack of trust in politics. I just think it's a shame that this suboptimal and (to me) inauthentic approach wins out.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:13 pm

I suspect that they've learnt their lesson from Christmas-gate, though, and have now stated things that don't look life softball targets from the outside, but could well be softballs on the inside. 15m jabs target by mid-Feb is still on, for instance: looks ambitious, in reality arguably wasn't.

Notably though a lot of places are starting to advertise for a normal summer, including Surrey Cricket where I've just renewed my season ticket, or "membership" as it's known in cricket. I was on a Zoom call with the CEO a week or so ago and he said the club was planning for socially distant crowds by April (the government have decided to abandon regional rules, they have said, after lockdown ends, but I imagine they'll still go down "through the tiers" so no crowd, 2k, 4k, then "tier 0" (no SD, mass gatherings back) in that order) and full crowds, no social distancing, by June.

However, in another piece of hopeless pessimism from Imperial, they have said that even with 3m vaccinations per week we'll be back in lockdown by August and 130,000 more people will die in the UK by June 2022. https://t.co/5AbLVzdYLx?amp=1 I just don't understand how they can even think that. The better the covid situation gets here, the tougher the overseas quarantine rules will be. Look at New Zealand or Australia at the moment. Although Australia goes into full lockdown every time someone so much as coughs (no doubt doing untold damage to people's mental health and their economy, which is my argument all along - costs vs benefits of lockdown), they have no exemptions for the overseas quarantine which has annoyed all the tennis players and forced the postponement of the Australian Grand Prix.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Matt Rutherford » Sun Feb 07, 2021 7:41 pm

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:13 pm
However, in another piece of hopeless pessimism from Imperial, they have said that even with 3m vaccinations per week we'll be back in lockdown by August and 130,000 more people will die in the UK by June 2022. https://t.co/5AbLVzdYLx?amp=1 I just don't understand how they can even think that. The better the covid situation gets here, the tougher the overseas quarantine rules will be. Look at New Zealand or Australia at the moment. Although Australia goes into full lockdown every time someone so much as coughs (no doubt doing untold damage to people's mental health and their economy, which is my argument all along - costs vs benefits of lockdown), they have no exemptions for the overseas quarantine which has annoyed all the tennis players and forced the postponement of the Australian Grand Prix.
Being insouciant about 'hopeless pessimism' (or 'science' as it's better known) is what got us to such bad levels in the first place. Every situation needs to be prepared for. They can think that because it appears they are taking into account the possibility of new variants emerging and how they might respond to the vaccine, and the fact that the dominant strains of the disease are now more transmissible.

Australia and New Zealand have it right in that going into lockdown hard and early results in a shorter lockdown, which is better for both people's mental health and their economies. Endlessly dithering and then going in too late results in a longer lockdown. Faster action stops the virus-that is a lesson which the government still don't appear to have learned, seeing as quarantine hotels won't be kickstarting until 15th February
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:11 pm

I don't know if you've noticed by Australia is constantly in and out of local lockdown. It's not like New Zealand where they haven't had a second lockdown. They don't have "zero covid" either, merely that cases are in single figures.

That's not a worst case scenario from Imperial, that's their middle-of-the-road prediction which is just hopelessly pessimistic.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Bradley Horrocks » Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:23 am

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:13 pm
Look at New Zealand or Australia at the moment. Although Australia goes into full lockdown every time someone so much as coughs (no doubt doing untold damage to people's mental health and their economy, which is my argument all along - costs vs benefits of lockdown).
Do you know any Australians who'd prefer the UK approach of dealing with the pandemic? I suspect there aren't many.
Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:13 pm
I imagine they'll still go down "through the tiers" so no crowd, 2k, 4k, then "tier 0" (no SD, mass gatherings back) in that order) and full crowds, no social distancing, by June.
That Imperial piece may be pessimistic, but equally this is ludicrously optimistic. It's hard to foresee social distancing being a thing of the past until community transmission is wiped out, or at least until everyone has been vaccinated with good evidence of significantly reduced transmission too. The natural R rate of the original strain was 3, for the new strain it would probably be around 4. Clearly not sustainable - and may well lead to that pessimistic take being accurate.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:34 pm

Bradley Horrocks wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:23 am
Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:13 pm
Look at New Zealand or Australia at the moment. Although Australia goes into full lockdown every time someone so much as coughs (no doubt doing untold damage to people's mental health and their economy, which is my argument all along - costs vs benefits of lockdown).
Do you know any Australians who'd prefer the UK approach of dealing with the pandemic? I suspect there aren't many.
Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Sun Feb 07, 2021 4:13 pm
I imagine they'll still go down "through the tiers" so no crowd, 2k, 4k, then "tier 0" (no SD, mass gatherings back) in that order) and full crowds, no social distancing, by June.
Didn’t word that very well, sorry: that’s the timetable Surrey have said they are planning for. I agree it’s optimistic.
Bradley Horrocks wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:23 am
That Imperial piece may be pessimistic, but equally this is ludicrously optimistic. It's hard to foresee social distancing being a thing of the past until community transmission is wiped out, or at least until everyone has been vaccinated with good evidence of significantly reduced transmission too. The natural R rate of the original strain was 3, for the new strain it would probably be around 4. Clearly not sustainable - and may well lead to that pessimistic take being accurate.
All of which is a good argument without a vaccine and hence social distancing last summer, but with a vaccine what I am saying there is that it may be the case it doesn't stop you catching the virus, but equally doesn’t make you ill or kill you, then what is the point? You can’t lockdown the country on harmless cases alone.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Bradley Horrocks » Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:55 am

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:34 pm
All of which is a good argument without a vaccine and hence social distancing last summer, but with a vaccine what I am saying there is that it may be the case it doesn't stop you catching the virus, but equally doesn’t make you ill or kill you, then what is the point? You can’t lockdown the country on harmless cases alone.
A vaccine will put the worst behind us, for sure, though a vaccine with a 90% take up and 90% effectiveness means about a fifth are still vulnerable - a fifth of any of the recent death figures would still be terrible. That's why we've got to hope it severely reduces transmission. I don't think most Brits will want further lockdowns after all we've been through and would prefer an extensive test and isolate program - though hopefully there's a debate well ahead of time so the government doesn't act late on another key decision.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:06 am

Bradley Horrocks wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:55 am
Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:34 pm
All of which is a good argument without a vaccine and hence social distancing last summer, but with a vaccine what I am saying there is that it may be the case it doesn't stop you catching the virus, but equally doesn’t make you ill or kill you, then what is the point? You can’t lockdown the country on harmless cases alone.
A vaccine will put the worst behind us, for sure, though a vaccine with a 90% take up and 90% effectiveness means about a fifth are still vulnerable - a fifth of any of the recent death figures would still be terrible. That's why we've got to hope it severely reduces transmission. I don't think most Brits will want further lockdowns after all we've been through and would prefer an extensive test and isolate program - though hopefully there's a debate well ahead of time so the government doesn't act late on another key decision.
So this is goalpost-moving, isn't it? The whole point of lockdown was to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed if too many people get ill at one time (Johnson, 2020), not to eliminate the virus outright. Lockdowns are last resorts, but many in here seem to actively want the New Zealand approach even though such an ultra-lockdown approach has not produced similar results anywhere in Europe. In France you are required to fill in red tape just to leave your home.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Ian Volante » Thu Feb 11, 2021 9:10 am

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Thu Feb 11, 2021 1:06 am
Bradley Horrocks wrote:
Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:55 am
Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Mon Feb 08, 2021 6:34 pm
All of which is a good argument without a vaccine and hence social distancing last summer, but with a vaccine what I am saying there is that it may be the case it doesn't stop you catching the virus, but equally doesn’t make you ill or kill you, then what is the point? You can’t lockdown the country on harmless cases alone.
A vaccine will put the worst behind us, for sure, though a vaccine with a 90% take up and 90% effectiveness means about a fifth are still vulnerable - a fifth of any of the recent death figures would still be terrible. That's why we've got to hope it severely reduces transmission. I don't think most Brits will want further lockdowns after all we've been through and would prefer an extensive test and isolate program - though hopefully there's a debate well ahead of time so the government doesn't act late on another key decision.
So this is goalpost-moving, isn't it? The whole point of lockdown was to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed if too many people get ill at one time (Johnson, 2020), not to eliminate the virus outright. Lockdowns are last resorts, but many in here seem to actively want the New Zealand approach even though such an ultra-lockdown approach has not produced similar results anywhere in Europe. In France you are required to fill in red tape just to leave your home.
France is a poor example - it's not an island, and as much as there's additional bureaucracy, there is still the ability to get out and about if needed.

I suspect that the argument is that lockdown is shite anyway, why don't we do it properly rather than this half-hearted effort over a long period, which pretty much feels the same anyway?
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:38 am

According to this Oxford University study the UK currently has the harshest restrictions in the world. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/resea ... acker#data

I’m fully prepared to be underwhelmed today... the vaccine was meant to the magic bullet. Israel, where lockdown compliance appears to be low, actually shows us the effects of vaccines by noting a lack of correlation between case numbers (levelling) and hospital numbers (falling), suggesting that the vaccine works.

So again I ask - are we protecting the NHS or what? And if the goalposts have moved, why?
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Matt Rutherford » Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:57 am

Hospital admissions, whilst plummetting, are still fairly high. Many vulnerable people, who could be hospitalized, don't yet have a vaccine, which could still risk a rise. The government seem to have finally learnt to err on the side of caution rather than risk another lockdown. It beds in time for the impact of schools to be seen, allows for more people (including most, if not all of the over-50s to get a jab), and hopefully will mean this is the last time we have to be locked down. Add to that the threat of mutations, the risk of which is prevalent with a combination of high vaccine rates and high case rates. I doubt anyone wants to go through this shit again-it's better to open slowly than open early and risk tighter measures
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Marc Meakin » Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:17 pm

I perdict within a month of schools opening we will be back to lockdown
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Gavin Chipper » Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:30 pm

A lot of dates have been announced for a "data not dates" thing.

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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:13 pm

I think they said "no earlier than" in order to assess the impact of the previous change before deciding whether to press ahead. This is much of the problem with the Autumn in that changes were made before the previous changes had time to take effect. You can see this in Tier 4 areas, which peak before others.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Matt Rutherford » Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:12 pm

I think it's good they attached possible dates (though 'possible' doesn't appear to be how the papers are treating them, more as set-in-stone). Without the dates, there would be more uncertainty-and a lot of people would be complaining. There was the emphasis on the fact they could be pushed back, a focus on the data, though I fear the way many are treating them as deadlines will make that politically difficult.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Rhys Benjamin » Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:48 pm

Yeah, I went back and watched the whole statement in full, so I could cut through the media narrative on it and just get to the point.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Callum Todd » Tue Feb 23, 2021 7:52 pm

Rhys Benjamin wrote:
Tue Feb 23, 2021 2:48 pm
Yeah, I went back and watched the whole statement in full, so I could cut through the media narrative on it and just get to the point.
This is how all information should be consumed.
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Jennifer Steadman » Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:11 am

'listening to Boris Johnson' is the absolute least efficient way of just getting to the point. He's the verbal equivalent of attempting to walk in a straight line after downing a bottle of absinthe (albeit far less thrilling to witness).
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Re: COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Post by Marc Meakin » Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:27 am

Jennifer Steadman wrote:
Wed Feb 24, 2021 8:11 am
'listening to Boris Johnson' is the absolute least efficient way of just getting to the point. He's the verbal equivalent of attempting to walk in a straight line after downing a bottle of absinthe (albeit far less thrilling to witness).
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