Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Discuss anything that happened in recent games. This is the place to post any words you got that beat Dictionary Corner, or numbers games that evaded Rachel.

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Martin Hurst
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Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Martin Hurst » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:10 pm

The daily spoilers threads work really well, but it isn't the easiest format to have ongoing discussions about more general things like how the series is shaping up in terms of how the seedings are looking, apterites who are coming up as future challengers, when it nears finals time our predictions (as the setting up of a finals prediction tab is itself a spoiler - (see http://www.c4countdown.co.uk/viewtopic. ... 94#p166751 ) etc etc.

So, I thought I'd set up a thread for such discussions to see how it works out :)

I'll also do a bit of statistical analysis once anyone octos, or loses after getting 4 wins or more.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Martin Hurst » Mon Jul 10, 2017 11:36 pm

So, Starting with Tom Chafer-Cook.

Wins: 8
Points: 896
Current seed: 1
Total Maximums: 82/120 (68%)

Letters Maximums: 54/80 (68%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 12
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 7
Badged words: Furnaces, Mixture, Prolate, Infernal, Petaloid, Warfare, Paltrier, Lovable, Varioles, Ugliness, Veinous, Pongees
Medalled words: Onsteads, Queuing, Biowars, Macrolide, Aerostats, Traineaus, Crinoids

Numbers Maximums: 23/32 (72%)
6 small: 2/3
1 large: 18/24 (75%)
2 large: 1/3
3 large: 1/1
4 large: 1/1

Conundrum Maximums: 5/8
Conundrum record: Won 5, Lost 2, Unsolved 1

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Noel Mc » Tue Jul 11, 2017 12:43 am

Tom was awesome. Not overly surprised that his 7th game was close, the strength of his opponent being one factor, but also that it was his fifth episode in a row, probably filmed at about 8pm at night!

I'm up on the 15th of August, but 24 episodes before that!

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Johnny Canuck » Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:13 pm

Did anyone notice the rather monumental coincidence related to the targets that CECIL came up with today?
There are three erors in this semtence.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Martin Hurst » Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:21 am

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Wed Jul 12, 2017 2:13 pm
Did anyone notice the rather monumental coincidence related to the targets that CECIL came up with today?
I didn't until I saw it on the Apterous Wiki page ;-) http://wiki.apterous.org/Episode_6622 - how on earth did you spot this? :shock:

I make it a one in 653,188,856,401 chance of that happening :lol:

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Johnny Canuck » Thu Jul 13, 2017 1:10 am

Martin Hurst wrote:
Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:21 am
I didn't until I saw it on the Apterous Wiki page ;-) http://wiki.apterous.org/Episode_6622 - how on earth did you spot this? :shock:
Just a weird déjà vu thing -- I thought CECIL had been generating a lot of high targets recently, knew I had seen 986 as a target earlier in the week, and then when the 910 came up in the last game I recalled that Tom's last numbers game was also a 910 that wasn't solved by either of the players (and which I did with a final step of 130*7 both times).
Martin Hurst wrote:
Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:21 am
I make it a one in 653,188,856,401 chance of that happening :lol:
Agreed, far too improbable to happen by chance within a lifetime. I suspect it was a bug, whereby the file or memory address that has the targets in it got reused somehow. I wonder if tomorrow's targets will match Tuesday's, too.
There are three erors in this semtence.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Gavin Chipper » Fri Jul 14, 2017 10:05 pm

I didn't notice it, but did notice that 228 had come up a few times recently - it came up in a Cats game recently I think too.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Martin Hurst » Thu Jul 20, 2017 11:25 pm

Shabir Alidina

Wins: 4
Points: 364
Current seed: 2
Total Maximums: 13/75 (17%)

Letters Maximums: 3/50 (6%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 0
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 0
Badged words: N/A
Medalled words: N/A

Numbers Maximums: 9/20 (45%)
6 small: 1/2
1 large: 4/12 (33%)
2 large: 4/6
3 large: 0/0
4 large: 0/0

Conundrum Maximums: 1/5
Conundrum record: Won 1, Lost 1, Unsolved 3

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

Unlikely to make the finals however - 4 wins/364 points wouldn't have made the finals in a "full length" series since series 60.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Martin Hurst » Sat Jul 29, 2017 1:10 am

The stats for the enigmatic John Cowen (coincidentally I just missed "enigmatic" as a conundrum on Apterous :oops: )

Wins: 8
Points: 799
Current seed: 2
Total Maximums: 56/120 (47%)

Letters Maximums: 36/80 (45%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 4
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 4
Badged words: Uncoiled, Uxorial, Ominous, Quintets
Medalled words: Mortalise, Countable, Flossing, Gorditas

Numbers Maximums: 14/32 (44%)
6 small: 7/17 (41%)
1 large: 3/6
2 large: 4/9
3 large: 0/0
4 large: 0/0

Conundrum Maximums: 6/8
Conundrum record: Won 6, Lost 0, Unsolved 2

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

Quick comparison to current no1 seed Tom Chafer-Cook:

Letters maxes - TCC 68%, JC 45%
Numbers maxes - TCC 72%, JC 44%

John's total of 799 should typically see him somewhere between the 3rd and 6th seed position for the finals. Reckon he could have easily been 50+ points more if he went 1 large on all numbers games rather than 6s, so may end up artificially a bit lower seeded than he perhaps should be.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Sat Jul 29, 2017 4:52 pm

My fave John Cowen declarations:-
OMINOUS
MORTALISE
HEARSE.

All we need now is for him to get something like GHOULISH in the series finals to cap things off nicely. :)
:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: S:778-ochamp

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Noel Mc » Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:36 pm

I wonder if he will change tactic for the numbers come the final?

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Elliott Mellor » Sat Jul 29, 2017 6:17 pm

Noel Mc wrote:
Sat Jul 29, 2017 5:36 pm
I wonder if he will change tactic for the numbers come the final?
He seems to either get it spot on or not get anywhere close generally, and he doesn't seem to want to deviate so I doubt it. His factorising is very good, so for something like 689 he'll see 53*13, but when it's something like 827 which is prime, he gets way too flustered trying to get it exactly rather than getting somewhere close as insurance. I wonder if he'd have got it had the target been 828, which has a lot of factors. I'd say probably.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Martin Hurst » Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:42 pm

Summary for Michael "Cov" Pfeffer.........

Wins: 8
Points: 770
Current seed: 3
Total Maximums: 44/120 (37%)

Letters Maximums: 23/80 (29%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 0
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 3
Badged words: N/A
Medalled words: Trundled, Lactated, Upvoting

Numbers Maximums: 17/32 (53%)
6 small: 0/3
1 large: 11/16 (69%)
2 large: 4/7
3 large: 0/0
4 large: 2/6

Conundrum Maximums: 4/8
Conundrum record: Won 4, Lost 2, Unsolved 2

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

3 octochamps now with 88 prelims still left - could we be on for over 8 octochamps this series........?

Michael seemed like a good guy and obviously capable of producing performances to match (10 maxes in his 4th game a particularly notable performance), but was very inconsistent - his last game was particularly a bit of a stinker!

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Gavin Chipper » Wed Aug 09, 2017 10:22 pm

Martin Hurst wrote:
Wed Aug 09, 2017 9:42 pm
3 octochamps now with 88 prelims still left - could we be on for over 8 octochamps this series........?
I've been hoping for this since series 47. Fingers crossed.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Martin Hurst » Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:01 pm

Summary for Noel McIlvenny.........

Wins: 8
Points: 793
Current seed: 3
Total Maximums: 52/120 (43%)

Letters Maximums: 27/80 (34%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 2
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 3
Badged words: Boutade, Wayside
Medalled words: Upsides, Outfeed, Poleman

Numbers Maximums: 21/32 (66%)
6 small: 0/0
1 large: 7/11 (64%)
2 large: 3/5
3 large: 0/0
4 large: 11/16 (69%)

Conundrum Maximums: 4/8
Conundrum record: Won 4, Lost 1, Unsolved 3

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

4L obviously the stand-out weapon - will be a danger against anyone if he can keep it close on the letters.

4 octochamps now with only 38 episodes gone - 77 prelims still remain.........

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Martin Hurst » Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:03 pm

And when will someone notice that someone has nicked the K tile?

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Graeme Cole » Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:34 pm

Martin Hurst wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:03 pm
And when will someone notice that someone has nicked the K tile?
I hadn't noticed this. Turns out we haven't seen a K since a month ago.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Gavin Chipper » Fri Aug 25, 2017 6:57 pm

Graeme Cole wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 11:34 pm
Martin Hurst wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 9:03 pm
And when will someone notice that someone has nicked the K tile?
I hadn't noticed this. Turns out we haven't seen a K since a month ago.
It looks like they have been overskipping it.

Anyway, we now have a massive four octochamps after just 38 episodes. Looking at the wiki, it seems that there will be 115 preliminaries altogether, so 77 left. Plenty of time for that ninth octochamp.

The closest we ever got was in series 47, when we had eight octochamps. In that series, it seems as though there were 117 preliminaries, so very similar to this series. At this stage in the series, we had had three octochamps, and hadn't yet started the run of the fourth, so we are on track.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Dan Byrom » Fri Aug 25, 2017 8:43 pm

If it were to happen, I'd feel very sorry for the 9th seed!

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Martin Hurst » Thu Sep 07, 2017 12:27 am

Summary for Nikki Saarsteiner.........

Wins: 4
Points: 392
Current seed: 5
Total Maximums: 20/75 (27%)

Letters Maximums: 12/50 (24%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 3
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 2
Badged words: Bedroom, Stumpier, Teasers
Medalled words: Nuttiest, Reliner

Numbers Maximums: 6/20 (30%)
6 small: 1/2
1 large: 2/5
2 large: 2/5
3 large: 1/5
4 large: 0/3

Conundrum Maximums: 2/5
Conundrum record: Won 2, Lost 2, Unsolved 1

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

With 68 prelims left, pretty much no chance to make the finals unfortunately, but she gave a very good account of herself and it's always good to see someone who made the effort of putting in a decent bit of practice doing well. She definitely should be proud of herself :)

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:08 am

68 prelims = at least 18 three-time winners... if there is a God!
The S77 finals needs Nikki in it!

We've already had enough Octochamps this series.
Time for a slow down...
:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: S:778-ochamp

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Gavin Chipper » Thu Sep 07, 2017 8:20 am

L'oisleatch McGraw wrote:
Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:08 am
68 prelims = at least 18 three-time winners... if there is a God!
The S77 finals needs Nikki in it!
I think she'll just be cannon fodder for the top players. It will be ugly.
We've already had enough Octochamps this series.
Time for a slow down...
Nah, we need nine!

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Bradley Horrocks » Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:08 am

I will be on 2 months from today, the last of Gyles' episodes. It will also be Rachel's 1999th episode!

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Gavin Chipper » Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:03 am

I think we're slowly moving away from the possibility of nine octochamps. We've had a few octochamp contenders recently, but they've all fallen away. We've had a long gap now.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Bradley Horrocks » Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:04 am

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 8:03 am
I think we're slowly moving away from the possibility of nine octochamps. We've had a few octochamp contenders recently, but they've all fallen away. We've had a long gap now.
Possibly, the potential ones have always found someone stronger in their run. It'll require some hard and fast octochamps now like John-Michael's back to back crownings.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Johnny Canuck » Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:30 am

Bradley H and Martin L are still planning to go on in late S77 (around November), and I'd predict both of them will octo if they don't run into each other. If Phil octos too I think 9 octos is still a reasonable possibility, but if he doesn't, that ship has probably sailed.

I guess someone is going to have to do the stats for Ben L's run now.
There are three erors in this semtence.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:06 am

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:30 am
I guess someone is going to have to do the stats for Ben L's run now.
Hopefully!
Martin's post match analysis of contestant runs is a highlight of c4c.
:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: S:778-ochamp

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Gavin Chipper » Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:54 am

Johnny Canuck wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:30 am
Bradley H and Martin L are still planning to go on in late S77 (around November), and I'd predict both of them will octo if they don't run into each other. If Phil octos too I think 9 octos is still a reasonable possibility, but if he doesn't, that ship has probably sailed.
I think I read that Eoin Jackson is going the be the challenger on 27th September, so Phil could potentially run into him. Could be an interesting battle, if so. But if Eoin wins, it extends the run of no octochamps!

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Johnny Canuck » Mon Sep 25, 2017 10:08 am

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:54 am
Johnny Canuck wrote:
Fri Sep 22, 2017 11:30 am
Bradley H and Martin L are still planning to go on in late S77 (around November), and I'd predict both of them will octo if they don't run into each other. If Phil octos too I think 9 octos is still a reasonable possibility, but if he doesn't, that ship has probably sailed.
I think I read that Eoin Jackson is going the be the challenger on 27th September, so Phil could potentially run into him. Could be an interesting battle, if so. But if Eoin wins, it extends the run of no octochamps!
Indeed, he confirmed this to me shortly after my original post. Eoin is quite a strong player and if he wins it will again dilute the frequency of octochamps in S77. But on the plus side, if Phil is still going Eoin will appear during his seventh game and could take him to a high-scoring match / crucial, and it's been a while since we had a high-quality match so late in an incumbent champion's run (usually, by the time the seventh game comes, the prospective octochamp has just been dispatching the challengers handily). Again, though, the results of the matches remain to be seen.
There are three erors in this semtence.

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Martin Hurst » Tue Sep 26, 2017 10:29 pm

Sorry for the delay! Haven't been up to date with episodes for a couple of weeks so was avoiding the Wiki like the plague to swerve spoilers!

Summary for Ben Leyburn.........

Wins: 5
Points:558
Current seed: 5
Total Maximums: 40/90 (44%)

Letters Maximums: 20/60 (33%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 3
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 1
Badged words: Wearier, Sanitize, Rehoming
Medalled words: Outweighs

Numbers Maximums: 15/24 (63%)
6 small: 0/1
1 large: 7/13 (54%)
2 large: 8/9
3 large: 0/1
4 large: 0/0

Conundrum Maximums: 5/6
Conundrum record: Won 5, Lost 1, Unsolved 0

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

Very similar stats to Noel (albeit with "easier" number selections) - pretty unlucky to run into Phil's 9 maxer in his 6th game. Unlikely to make the finals though :(

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Martin Hurst » Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:41 pm

Summary for Phil Peel.........

Wins: 6
Points: 609
Current seed: 5
Total Maximums: 38/105 (36%)

Letters Maximums: 17/70 (24%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 1
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 0
Badged words: Rehoming
Medalled words: N/A

Numbers Maximums: 19/28 (68%)
6 small: 1/1
1 large: 9/13 (69%)
2 large: 9/13 (69%)
3 large: 0/1
4 large: 0/0

Conundrum Maximums: 2/7
Conundrum record: Won 2, Lost 1, Unsolved 4

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

5th seed with 50+ prelims to go - I would say slightly more likely than not that he will just miss out on making the finals at this stage.

68% maxes on numbers is the second best we have seen this series so far from those that have one 4+ games (1st = Tom Chafer-Cook (72%))

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Martin Hurst » Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:49 pm

Summary for Eoin Jackson.........

Wins: 8
Points: 778
Current seed: 4
Total Maximums: 59/120 (49%)

Letters Maximums: 28/80 (35%)
Badges (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant on CD before*): 2
Medals (7+ length maxes not previously submitted as a max by a contestant or DC on CD before**): 8
Badged words: Alienor, Circuit
Medalled words: Toodles, Assumes, Defamous, Satanise, Firepit, Haplite, Assures, Rejection

Numbers Maximums: 23/32 (72%)
6 small: 2/5
1 large: 8/9
2 large: 13/17 (76%)
3 large: 0/0
4 large: 0/1

Conundrum Maximums: 3/8
Conundrum record: Won 3, Lost 3, Unsolved 2

* = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast - excludes Medals
** = according to all games on Apterous Wiki, and as at day of broadcast

Currently 4th seed, but 2nd so far this series (for those that have won 4+ games) in terms of total maximums (behind Tom Chafer-Cook), joint first in terms of numbers performance with Tom, and 3rd in terms of letters maximums behind Tom and John Cowen.

5 octochamps now with 47 prelims remaining......

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:08 pm

Martin Hurst wrote:
Fri Oct 06, 2017 9:49 pm
Summary for Eoin Jackson.........
I've been looking forward to this for months now.
It reads a little better than I had anticipated.
I love that SATANISE gets a medal.
We already had HEARSE for 6, OMINOUS for 7, and MORTALISE for 9, so S77 needed a good 8 to complete that set.
I have your back, JC! :)
:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: S:778-ochamp

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by Elliott Mellor » Sat Oct 07, 2017 5:03 pm

Especial congrats on being an octochamp in a future series too as your signature says!

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Re: Ongoing series 77 general discussion thread (will contain spoilers!!!)

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Sat Oct 07, 2017 7:26 pm

Not going to spell it out for you...
But each of these numbers is relevant to my CD run.

77, 8, and 778.
:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: S:778-ochamp

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