Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

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Who will win series 76 of Countdown?

Poll ended at Tue Jun 20, 2017 11:25 pm

Stephen Read (1)
13
87%
Jeff Clayton (2)
0
No votes
Moose Rosser (3)
0
No votes
Elliott Mack (4)
1
7%
Annie Humphries (5)
0
No votes
Wesley Jardine (6)
0
No votes
Lawrie Collingwood (7)
0
No votes
James Slater (8)
1
7%
 
Total votes: 15

Martin Hurst
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Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Martin Hurst » Tue Jun 13, 2017 11:25 pm

Stephen Read looks a massive favourite, but I don't think there is too much between seeds 2 and 7 - could lead to some interesting games!

My predictions............

QFs
Stephen Read (1) v James Slater (8) - Stephen to win by 60-70 points
Jeff Clayton (2) v Lawrie Collingwood (7) - Jeff to be pushed, but to win by 10-20 points
Moose Rosser (3) v Wesley Jardine (6) - Moose by 15-25 points
Elliott Mack (4) v Annie Humphries (5) - very hard to call - I'm going for Elliott on a crucial to maintain his 100% conundrum record

Semis
Stephen Read (1) v Elliott Mack (4) - Stephen to win by 40-50 points
Jeff Clayton (2) v Moose Rosser (3) - Sneaky feeling for Moose to edge a close one

Final
Stephen Read (1) v Moose Rosser (3) - Stephen to win by 30-40 points

What are everyone else's thoughts/predictions?

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Dan Byrom » Wed Jun 14, 2017 12:44 pm

I agree with you on the 'not too much between 2 and 7' - Think the seedings are pretty accurate though for the final outcome - I see a (1),(2) final with (3) and (4) in the semis.

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Zarte Siempre » Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:35 pm

I watched the filming, so I won't make any "predictions", but I have ticked the poll - only with what I thought before going though (didn't know all of the players, so couldn't predict the games at the time)
Possibly the first contestant to accelerate with a mic clipped...

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by James Laverty » Wed Jun 14, 2017 3:05 pm

Same as Zarte. Picked who I thought was going to win the poll, but I can assure you it is a good week of games
Definitely not Jamie McNeill or Schrodinger's Cat....

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Elliott Mellor » Wed Jun 14, 2017 3:24 pm

My predictions...

Quarters
Stephen Read (1) v James Slater (8) - Stephen to win by 40-50 points
Jeff Clayton (2) v Lawrie Collingwood (7) - Jeff to win by 20-30 points
Moose Rosser (3) v Wesley Jardine (6) - Moose by 20-30 points
Elliott Mack (4) v Annie Humphries (5) - Could swing either way, but Elliott by 5-15 points, probably getting the conundrum in the process.

Semis
Stephen Read (1) v Elliott Mack (4) - Stephen to win by 25-35 points
Jeff Clayton (2) v Moose Rosser (3) - Gonna say Moose, just, by maybe 5-10 points

Final
Stephen Read (1) v Moose Rosser (3) - Stephen to win by around 20-30 points.

I think Moose will certainly push Stephen if he meets him, but his lack of knowledge of some of the more common Countdown words and relatively weak numbers might let him down.

But, I agree, should be a very good set of games!

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Gavin Chipper » Wed Jun 14, 2017 4:24 pm

First of all, OMG spoilerz.

But other than that, I'd agree with the way the poll is going that Stephen Read is the clear favourite. I'm not sure I'd agree that 2 to 7 are quite close though. I think Jeff and Moose are quite a way clear of Wesley and Lawrie, for example. (At the time of their runs anyway - they might have improved.)

Looking at Martin's predictions, I also think Stephen to beat James in the first quarter by 60-70 points is probably a bit harsh. It does depend a lot on the rounds, but that's a big margin. Generally I'd agree with most of the results though. Elliott v Annie is tough to call, as is Moose v Jeff so it will be fun watching!

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by James Laverty » Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:16 am

I'm not sure if I agree with there not being much between 2-7, I'd say they are all players with different strengths. I didn't see Lawrie's games so I can't comment on them, so I'll only do 2-6.

Jeff and Wes are probably the strongest numbers players in the pool. Jeff showing he was strong on a variety of selections, while Wes's choice of 6 small may prove vital against Moose, who I would say was the weakest on the numbers, but probably the strongest on the letters.

Elliott and Annie otherwise, I'd say were more consistent on their games, and ofc Elliott has his obvious advantage on the conundrum. However, I found Elliott was prone to the occasional lapse in concentration (some fairly easy misses), and Annie was prone to let the odd mistake affect her for a few rounds afterwards. So (as it often is) the final QF will no doubt be tight and could be down to who is less prone to nerves, although if it goes to a crucial I would bet a years apterous membership on Elliott getting it.
Definitely not Jamie McNeill or Schrodinger's Cat....

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Martin Hurst » Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:05 pm

James Laverty wrote:
Thu Jun 15, 2017 11:16 am
I'm not sure if I agree with there not being much between 2-7, I'd say they are all players with different strengths. I didn't see Lawrie's games so I can't comment on them, so I'll only do 2-6.

Jeff and Wes are probably the strongest numbers players in the pool. Jeff showing he was strong on a variety of selections, while Wes's choice of 6 small may prove vital against Moose, who I would say was the weakest on the numbers, but probably the strongest on the letters.

Elliott and Annie otherwise, I'd say were more consistent on their games, and ofc Elliott has his obvious advantage on the conundrum. However, I found Elliott was prone to the occasional lapse in concentration (some fairly easy misses), and Annie was prone to let the odd mistake affect her for a few rounds afterwards. So (as it often is) the final QF will no doubt be tight and could be down to who is less prone to nerves, although if it goes to a crucial I would bet a years apterous membership on Elliott getting it.
As you were there, I hope you aren't giving away too much here :?

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Johnny Canuck » Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:26 pm

If anyone from the bottom half of the table is a "dark horse" / "underdog" this time, I'd have to say it would be Wes; both he and Moose have quite large ranges between their highest and lowest scores. As it is, though, I'm expecting at least the top 3 seeds to prevail. Stephen will probably take the trophy with no crucials; I'm only expecting a very close crucial scenario, similar to Robin vs Ann (S74), in the second semi-final if Jeff and Moose prevail.
There are three erors in this semtence.

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Gavin Chipper » Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:31 pm

By the way, I think Elliott's conundrums are slightly overrated. He may have got them all but not in the impressive speeds of a really top player. I think they were mostly fairly gettable anyway.

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Martin Hurst » Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:03 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Jun 15, 2017 12:31 pm
By the way, I think Elliott's conundrums are slightly overrated. He may have got them all but not in the impressive speeds of a really top player. I think they were mostly fairly gettable anyway.
Good point - they may well try to "test" his 100% record with a horrible obscure compound word as well.

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Elliott Mellor » Thu Jun 15, 2017 3:42 pm

Wes's 6s may well prove tough for Moose, who was prone to missing even easy 1l games, so if Wes can nail both his numbers with Moose messing them up then Moose will have a hill to climb. However, Moose's letters are stronger which does give him an obvious advantage considering there's a lot more letters rounds. As I've said time and time again though, 6s is only a weapon if you get a tough target, if it throws up 2 really easy targets then you may as well haven chosen 1l. On the flip side though, if the letters rounds are nice and Wes can even take a round or two off Moose, then it might dilute Moose's advantage on them somewhat. Wes could beat Moose on a decent day, but I'm still seeing Moose take it just.

Annie vs Elliott will also be a thrilling match to watch, as they seem pretty evenly matched. Neither is too hot on the numbers, and their performances vary wildly. It's very hard to see one of them absolutely running away with it and I think it will be swings and roundabouts. However on a conundrum, Elliott is certainly favourite.

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Matt Morrison » Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:34 pm

There's a guy called Moose? Please let him be Canadian.

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Elliott Mellor » Thu Jun 15, 2017 5:03 pm

Because I have nothing better to do...here are Stephen's stats for the series
LETTERS
Maxes: 50/80 (62.5%)
Raw points: 543/621 (87.4%)

NUMBERS
Maxes: 28/32 (87.5%)
Points: 308/320 (96.3%)

CONUNDRUMS
Maxes 7/8 (87.5%)
Points 70/80 (87.5%)

TOTAL
Maxes: 85/120 (70.8%)
Raw points: 921/1021 (90.2%)

Hard to see him being anything other than the strong favourite for the series based on that. If I can be bothered I'll do all 8 seeds in the same way, but for now this is all I'm doing.

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Tim Down » Thu Jun 15, 2017 10:59 pm

I like making predictions. It's difficult to see much chance of Stephen not winning the series.

Here goes:

QFs
Stephen Read (1) v James Slater (8) - Stephen by 40-50
Jeff Clayton (2) v Lawrie Collingwood (7) - Jeff by 20
Moose Rosser (3) v Wesley Jardine (6) - If mid-run Moose turns up then he wins. Moose by 20.
Elliott Mack (4) v Annie Humphries (5) - Also tough to call, although I think Elliott has a slight edge. Elliott to win by 10-20.

Semis
Stephen Read (1) v Elliott Mack (4) - Stephen by 20-30.
Jeff Clayton (2) v Moose Rosser (3) - Moose by a whisker. Depends on the numbers. I predict a crucial.

Final
Stephen Read (1) v Moose Rosser (3) - Stephen by 20.

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Re: Series 76 Finals - predictions (may contain spoilers)

Post by Elliott Mellor » Fri Jun 16, 2017 5:03 pm

Interesting looking at the Mack vs Humphries line up.

On the letters Annie is certainly stronger based on stats, with Annie getting 40 maxes from 80 and Elliott 30. On the numbers they're pretty much neck and neck, with Annie on 17 maxes from 32 and Elliott on 18 (or 19, if you count not getting the best solution but getting the most points). Obviously Elliott is miles ahead on the conundrums, with 8 from 8 as opposed to Annie's 2 from 8. Very hard to pick a favourite really based on this, both are prone to missing easy spots and solutions but both can also come up with some absolutely brilliant spots.

A good point raised is that Elliott's 100% conundrums record may well be tested with a horribly obscure word which might be completely unsolved. Therefore whoever is ahead before the conundrum is surely likely to emerge victorious. Another interesting point is that, while Elliott got all 8 of his conundrums, they were all fairly easy and hence it doesn't necessarily make him a conundrum God who is undefeatable where conundrums are concerned.

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