Ask Graeme?

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by JackHurst » Sun Jun 21, 2020 8:26 am

If players retained a score a bit like in conkers, i.e
My score is 1 if I never played before.
My score goes to 1 if I lose.
My score goes up by my opponents score when I beat them.

Who has the highest score now?
What has the highest score at any point in time been?
Which series champs had the highest and lowest scores at the end of their series?

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Thomas Cappleman » Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:04 pm

If I've understood the system correctly, Conor's ended up on the total of everyone's score going into the 30BC? Several of whom (including you) were unbeaten, which in turn means he scoops up several series worth of contestants. As I think an octochamp who goes on to win the series basically ends up with a score roughly equal to the length of the series? So can't see that combination being beaten by anyone.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:21 pm

Seems pretty random.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by JackHurst » Sun Jun 21, 2020 4:13 pm

Thomas Cappleman wrote:
Sun Jun 21, 2020 1:04 pm
If I've understood the system correctly, Conor's ended up on the total of everyone's score going into the 30BC? Several of whom (including you) were unbeaten, which in turn means he scoops up several series worth of contestants. As I think an octochamp who goes on to win the series basically ends up with a score roughly equal to the length of the series? So can't see that combination being beaten by anyone.
Yes I think it might work out that way actually. Probably now not as interesting as I thought!

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Adam Dexter » Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:40 am

Not sure if been covered elsewhere, but here goes.

Which word has the most stems, so should rarely be declared?

Are you able to show the most for each length of word?

Maybe this could be further split to determine words that if any extra vowel was added would yield a longer word - thus meaning your last pick should be a vowel if you already have this word and you're going for a high score.
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Charlie Reams » Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:08 pm

Adam Dexter wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 9:40 am
Not sure if been covered elsewhere, but here goes.

Which word has the most stems, so should rarely be declared?

Are you able to show the most for each length of word?

Maybe this could be further split to determine words that if any extra vowel was added would yield a longer word - thus meaning your last pick should be a vowel if you already have this word and you're going for a high score.
Not sure this is the most, but CANISTER stems with 15 different letters which seems like a good start.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Conor » Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:38 pm

ANGRIEST stems with 19 I think. I'd be surprised if that can be beaten.

For which words stem with any vowel:
http://wiki.apterous.org/Fruitful_8s
http://wiki.apterous.org/Fruitful_7s
http://wiki.apterous.org/Fruitful_6s

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Adam Dexter » Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:06 pm

Conor wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:38 pm
ANGRIEST stems with 19 I think. I'd be surprised if that can be beaten.

For which words stem with any vowel:
http://wiki.apterous.org/Fruitful_8s
http://wiki.apterous.org/Fruitful_7s
http://wiki.apterous.org/Fruitful_6s
Ahh very nice - I thought something like this would likely have already been covered.

Any idea if these are updated with dictionary updates?
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Adam Dexter » Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:49 pm

Who would be the current UCWC? Is anyone keeping track?

A bit like https://www.ufwc.co.uk/ where the winner of the first match is champion until defeated (a la boxing)

Issue I can see is people who retire unbeaten - not entirely sure how this is dealt with in boxing?
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Callum Todd » Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:57 pm

I think in boxing they consider someone who retires as lineal champion to be the end of that lineage, and a new one begins with whoever picks up the title after their retirement.

The problem with Countdown is that everyone sort of 'retires' at the same time, so we'd just go through an endless cycle of the lineal champ being the CoC champs + the series winners since then.

So the current lineal champs would be:

(anyone who retired as lineal champ prior to 30BC)
Conor Travers
Dylan Taylor
Zarte Siempre
Mike Daysley
Dinos Sfyris
James Haughton
(any octochamps from current series)
(that octochamp who didn't get into the finals recently)
(current C1 from current series)
Last edited by Callum Todd on Wed Jul 08, 2020 5:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:59 pm

Adam Dexter wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:49 pm
Who would be the current UCWC? Is anyone keeping track?

A bit like https://www.ufwc.co.uk/ where the winner of the first match is champion until defeated (a la boxing)

Issue I can see is people who retire unbeaten - not entirely sure how this is dealt with in boxing?
Well, I'll make a start. In series 1, Helen Grayson retired as the daily champion but then came back in series 6 where she lost to Olivia Lloyd who lost the series final to Darryl Francis. Francis lost to David Trace in the CoC, and Trace lost to Harvey Freeman in the final. Harvey Freeman lost (but in a Masters game if that counts) to Mark Nyman. That run would end with either Freeman or Nyman.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Thomas Carey » Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:40 pm

this is yet another question that can be answered with 'a bunch of the best ever players and Frank Mulvey'
cheers maus

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Ben Wilson » Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:53 pm

Inspired by the fact that today's c4c birthdays include someone who's 28 and who's 56 (not to mention the fact that I'm on a lot of painkillers right now) I'm wondering how many successful players' (defined as octochamps or finalists) debuts are exactly twice/half as 'old' as that of another successful player, either defined as days from 2nd November 1982 or by episode numbers.

On the one hand, this is a question no one else is ever likely to ask, but on the other hand, there's probably a good reason for that.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Conor » Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:45 am

Adam Dexter wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:06 pm
Conor wrote:
Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:38 pm
ANGRIEST stems with 19 I think. I'd be surprised if that can be beaten.

For which words stem with any vowel:
http://wiki.apterous.org/Fruitful_8s
http://wiki.apterous.org/Fruitful_7s
http://wiki.apterous.org/Fruitful_6s
Ahh very nice - I thought something like this would likely have already been covered.

Any idea if these are updated with dictionary updates?
I updated them around the end of last year, so should be correct as of then. Will check again shortly with the latest dictionary.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by James Laverty » Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:39 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:59 pm
Adam Dexter wrote:
Mon Jul 06, 2020 8:49 pm
Who would be the current UCWC? Is anyone keeping track?

A bit like https://www.ufwc.co.uk/ where the winner of the first match is champion until defeated (a la boxing)

Issue I can see is people who retire unbeaten - not entirely sure how this is dealt with in boxing?
Well, I'll make a start. In series 1, Helen Grayson retired as the daily champion but then came back in series 6 where she lost to Olivia Lloyd who lost the series final to Darryl Francis. Francis lost to David Trace in the CoC, and Trace lost to Harvey Freeman in the final. Harvey Freeman lost (but in a Masters game if that counts) to Mark Nyman. That run would end with either Freeman or Nyman.
I did another run at this, starting with Season 34 (assuming Freeman retired unbeaten after Supreme Championship).##

James Martin was the only octochamp that series, so starting with the finals

James Martin lost in the semis to Harshan Lamabadusuriya
Harshan Lamabadusuriya lost in the final to Huw Morgan
Huw Morgan lost in CoC IX prelims to Simon Pryde
Simon Pryde lost in CoC IX semis to Pete Cashmore
Pete Cashmore lost in the COC IX final to Natascha Kearsey

Natascha Kearsey later beat COC X winner Scott Mearns in a special episode, so I'd declare her retired at this point.

If doing again, I'd go so from Series 42, but I'll leave that for another time
Definitely not Jamie McNeill or Schrodinger's Cat....

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Adam Dexter » Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:26 pm

All very interesting thanks everyone.

Now a question related to personal stats.

We have the Superstats on Apterous.

I almost always pick CCCVVVCVC however my opponents obviously have a wide range of picks.

Is there any way it could be seen what letter selections have the best max % for a player?

I'm thinking C could be 1 and V could be 0, thus converting any string into binary. This could then be analysed so my pick for example would be 453, and might have a max % of 60.

I know some people at events use boxes and others write the letters in "their" selection technique rather than what is actually out. I just wondered if there had ever been a study into whether this actually makes a tangible difference.
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Thomas Carey » Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:50 pm

Adam Dexter wrote:
Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:26 pm
All very interesting thanks everyone.

Now a question related to personal stats.

We have the Superstats on Apterous.

I almost always pick CCCVVVCVC however my opponents obviously have a wide range of picks.

Is there any way it could be seen what letter selections have the best max % for a player?

I'm thinking C could be 1 and V could be 0, thus converting any string into binary. This could then be analysed so my pick for example would be 453, and might have a max % of 60.

I know some people at events use boxes and others write the letters in "their" selection technique rather than what is actually out. I just wondered if there had ever been a study into whether this actually makes a tangible difference.
I'm one of those people. I started playing this stupid game at 12 years old, and always picked CVCVCVC (VC at the start before I could fish) and then a few years later (starting with my TV games, always a good time to try something new) I started writing all selections like that. I think it helps a little, partially by making me look at two different selections (should I write mine differently? I never did the 3x3 box thing) but also I like that pick because it spells out syllables that you can read in your head and do something with (and also you're more likely to get a funny thing spelt out). The clearest example of where this pick helped me was in my coc QF against Zarte - many people asked me how I saw TIRAMISUS and it was because I wrote the selection IATSUMIRS as TISAMURIS which basically spelled it out. But I'd be interested to know whether or not it actually helps me...
cheers maus

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Ian Volante » Wed Jul 08, 2020 2:38 pm

I like the binary idea. My most common picks are 181 or 182, and less likely 180 and 183. I only do the box thing when writing on paper, so never on Apterous. Not sure which works better at all, not convinced there's a difference.
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Adam Dexter » Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:05 am

Bit of an aside, but did some Excellery last night and came up with this horrendous formula:

=IF(OR(LEFT(A1,1)="A",LEFT(A1,1)="E",LEFT(A1,1)="I",LEFT(A1,1)="O",LEFT(A1,1)="U"),"V","C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 2, 1)="A", MID(A1, 2, 1)="E", MID(A1, 2, 1)="I", MID(A1, 2, 1)="O", MID(A1, 2, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 3, 1)="A", MID(A1, 3, 1)="E", MID(A1, 3, 1)="I", MID(A1, 3, 1)="O", MID(A1, 3, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 4, 1)="A", MID(A1, 4, 1)="E", MID(A1, 4, 1)="I", MID(A1, 4, 1)="O", MID(A1, 4, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 5, 1)="A", MID(A1, 5, 1)="E", MID(A1, 5, 1)="I", MID(A1, 5, 1)="O", MID(A1, 5, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 6, 1)="A", MID(A1, 6, 1)="E", MID(A1, 6, 1)="I", MID(A1, 6, 1)="O", MID(A1, 6, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 7, 1)="A", MID(A1, 7, 1)="E", MID(A1, 7, 1)="I", MID(A1, 7, 1)="O", MID(A1, 7, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 8, 1)="A", MID(A1, 8, 1)="E", MID(A1, 8, 1)="I", MID(A1, 8, 1)="O", MID(A1, 8, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 9, 1)="A", MID(A1, 9, 1)="E", MID(A1, 9, 1)="I", MID(A1, 9, 1)="O", MID(A1, 9, 1)="U"), "V", "C")

Basically this will convert any 9 letter string into CV format.

Major issue is that Stephen R has worked out there are 336 combinations of CV ensuring the vowel selection is legal - might be a bit time heavy doing it manually!
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Adam Dexter » Thu Jul 09, 2020 6:25 pm

Adam Dexter wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:05 am
Major issue is that Stephen R has worked out there are 336 combinations of CV ensuring the vowel selection is legal - might be a bit time heavy doing it manually!
Just an update to say I have worked out how to get all the combinations - I have everything ready, just need a shitload of data.
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Matt Morrison » Thu Jul 09, 2020 7:53 pm

Adam Dexter wrote:
Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:05 am
Bit of an aside, but did some Excellery last night and came up with this horrendous formula:

=IF(OR(LEFT(A1,1)="A",LEFT(A1,1)="E",LEFT(A1,1)="I",LEFT(A1,1)="O",LEFT(A1,1)="U"),"V","C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 2, 1)="A", MID(A1, 2, 1)="E", MID(A1, 2, 1)="I", MID(A1, 2, 1)="O", MID(A1, 2, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 3, 1)="A", MID(A1, 3, 1)="E", MID(A1, 3, 1)="I", MID(A1, 3, 1)="O", MID(A1, 3, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 4, 1)="A", MID(A1, 4, 1)="E", MID(A1, 4, 1)="I", MID(A1, 4, 1)="O", MID(A1, 4, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 5, 1)="A", MID(A1, 5, 1)="E", MID(A1, 5, 1)="I", MID(A1, 5, 1)="O", MID(A1, 5, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 6, 1)="A", MID(A1, 6, 1)="E", MID(A1, 6, 1)="I", MID(A1, 6, 1)="O", MID(A1, 6, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 7, 1)="A", MID(A1, 7, 1)="E", MID(A1, 7, 1)="I", MID(A1, 7, 1)="O", MID(A1, 7, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 8, 1)="A", MID(A1, 8, 1)="E", MID(A1, 8, 1)="I", MID(A1, 8, 1)="O", MID(A1, 8, 1)="U"), "V", "C")&IF(OR(MID(A1, 9, 1)="A", MID(A1, 9, 1)="E", MID(A1, 9, 1)="I", MID(A1, 9, 1)="O", MID(A1, 9, 1)="U"), "V", "C")

Basically this will convert any 9 letter string into CV format.

Major issue is that Stephen R has worked out there are 336 combinations of CV ensuring the vowel selection is legal - might be a bit time heavy doing it manually!
I'm not much of an Excel master but it did occur to me that you could just use COUNTIF to work with an external range instead - in this instance D3 is my conundrum and B3:B7 is AEIOU.

Code: Select all

=IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,LEFT(D3,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,2,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,3,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,4,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,5,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,6,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,7,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,8,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,RIGHT(D3,1)),"V","C")
I guess you could count occurrences of V in the produced string with something like

Code: Select all

=LEN(E3) -  LEN(SUBSTITUTE(E3,"V",""))
where E3 is the CCVCVCVV string - this will give you the vowel count. Also need to check it's a 9 letter word though.
And I can't think how to put all of this in one formula without accepting it's time to learn Visual Basic.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Matt Morrison » Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:15 pm

Think I got it son.

=IF(LEN(D3)=9,IF(AND(LEN(D3) - LEN(SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(D3,"A",""),"E",""),"I",""),"O",""),"U",""))>1,LEN(D3) - LEN(SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(SUBSTITUTE(D3,"A",""),"E",""),"I",""),"O",""),"U",""))<6),IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,LEFT(D3,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,2,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,3,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,4,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,5,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,6,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,7,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,8,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,RIGHT(D3,1)),"V","C"),"check your fucking vowels"),"not a fucking 9")

It's absolutely disgusting how much duplication you have to put in to Excel, most upsetting.

So will let you know if it's not a 9, if there are the wrong amount of vowels (didn't want to make it longer in providing "too few" and "too many" responses!), and then if all those conditions are met convert to CVC format.

It's a huge shame that SUBSTITUTE only works with a range when you supply a range. I thought you might be able to do something like

Code: Select all

SUBSTITUTE(D3,{"A","I","E","O","U"},"")
rather than need 5 SUBSTITUTEs but didn't work.

Oh, and if you need to sanitise the input then every instance of D3 needs to be UPPER(D3) too of course.

Will throw it open to any Excel gurus now!

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Matt Morrison » Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:23 pm

Ah, you can do that with SUBSTITUTE. I needed SUMPRODUCT around the maths though.

=IF(LEN(D3)=9,IF(AND(SUMPRODUCT(LEN(D3) - LEN(SUBSTITUTE(D3,{"A","E","I","O","U"},"")))>1,SUMPRODUCT(LEN(D3) - LEN(SUBSTITUTE(D3,{"A","E","I","O","U"},"")))<6),IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,LEFT(D3,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,2,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,3,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,4,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,5,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,6,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,7,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,MID(D3,8,1)),"V","C")&IF(COUNTIF(B3:B7,RIGHT(D3,1)),"V","C"),"check your fucking vowels"),"not a fucking 9")

done now.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Adam Dexter » Thu Jul 09, 2020 8:45 pm

Tis a thing of beauty so it is. Still - mine works so will leave as is. Anyone wanna shove me a load of data?
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Noel Mc » Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:13 pm

Any idea of the highest intermediate number of a number round solution for which you must go via that number?

That's worded horribly.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:50 pm

Noel Mc wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:13 pm
Any idea of the highest intermediate number of a number round solution for which you must go via that number?

That's worded horribly.
There is this thread but there's nothing conclusive in it by the looks of things.

Edit - some further discussion.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Sam Cappleman-Lynes » Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:07 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:50 pm
Edit - some further discussion.
Enjoyed reliving that thread. Sadly I think I've lost the raw data I produced while masquerading as Dave.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Wed Jul 15, 2020 10:21 pm

Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:07 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:50 pm
Edit - some further discussion.
Enjoyed reliving that thread. Sadly I think I've lost the raw data I produced while masquerading as Dave.
You came and went pretty quickly.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Graeme Cole » Thu Jul 16, 2020 1:15 am

Noel Mc wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:13 pm
Any idea of the highest intermediate number of a number round solution for which you must go via that number?

That's worded horribly.
I hacked about with my solver for most of the evening and then found an efficient-ish way to look for this. So far I've only looked at 4 large, as that's where I think we'll find the answer, but of all possible 4 large numbers rounds, the selection and target with the highest unavoidable intermediate result is 100 75 50 25 3 3 -> 996.

The only solution is (((50 + 3) * 25 + 3) * 75) / 100, which goes via 99,600.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Charlie Reams » Thu Jul 16, 2020 2:15 pm

This is super cool, I have wondered about this question before so very interesting to get an answer. Would love to see the answers for 6 small etc if you have the compute time to grind those out!

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Sam Cappleman-Lynes » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:02 pm

I can corroborate Graeme's 4-large result. His hunch is correct, there aren't any games outside of 4-large for which such a large intermediate result is necessary. Here are the largest unavoidable intermediate results for each of the 5 selections:

4 Large - 99600: 996 = ((50 + 3) * 25 + 3) * 75 / 100
3 Large - 94200: 942 = (50 * 25 + 6) * 75 / (10 * 10)
2 Large - 60900: 812 = (100 * 6 + 9) * 10 * 10 / 75
1 Large - 10020: 835 = (100 * 10 + 2) * 10 / (6 + 6)
6 Small - 7400: 925 = (9 * 8 + 2) * 10 * 10 / 8

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Sam Cappleman-Lynes » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:37 pm

I also did the same thing for the Nasty large numbers:

4 Large - 27492: 316 = ((62 * 12 - 1) * 37 + 1) / 87
3 Large - 32451: 877 = ((62 * 6 + 1) * 87 - 2) / 37
2 Large - 22950: 918 = (62 * 37 * 10 + 10) / (5 * 5)
1 Large - 10440: 580 = 87 * 8 * (8 + 7) / (9 + 9)

I briefly wondered what the results would be if you were allowed *any* large numbers, Aegilops-style. But a quick estimate tells me it would take a few months to exhaustively check every case. The main problem is that I've had to turn off the optimisation where I throw away partial calculations if there are multiple ways of reaching the same value with the same numbers, because here we genuinely care about the difference between (100 + 75) - 50 and 100 + (75 - 50).

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:42 pm

Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:07 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:50 pm
Edit - some further discussion.
Enjoyed reliving that thread. Sadly I think I've lost the raw data I produced while masquerading as Dave.
Well, this has led me to some shocking news. I remembered there was another poster on here who posted some numbers game stats but didn't post that often and I wondered if that might be you as well. Turns out not. He was Ray Folwell and he posted quite a bit in the Analysis of 4 large thread. Anyway, looking at his profile picture it seems he is the same person that died after being hit by a train in 2011.

Here is a funeral notice as well.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Sam Cappleman-Lynes » Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:20 pm

Which octochamp has the smallest range of scores? Which has the smallest coefficient of variation?

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Innis Carson
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Innis Carson » Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:38 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Thu Jul 16, 2020 9:42 pm
Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 9:07 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Wed Jul 15, 2020 8:50 pm
Edit - some further discussion.
Enjoyed reliving that thread. Sadly I think I've lost the raw data I produced while masquerading as Dave.
Well, this has led me to some shocking news. I remembered there was another poster on here who posted some numbers game stats but didn't post that often and I wondered if that might be you as well. Turns out not. He was Ray Folwell and he posted quite a bit in the Analysis of 4 large thread. Anyway, looking at his profile picture it seems he is the same person that died after being hit by a train in 2011.

Here is a funeral notice as well.
That's very sad indeed, and even sadder that it was so long before we found out. RIP.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Innis Carson » Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:49 pm

Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:20 pm
Which octochamp has the smallest range of scores? Which has the smallest coefficient of variation?
Once upon a time I tried to calculate this in the hope that it might be me, but found that I was pipped by Tom Hargreaves. Very possible that I missed someone, though, or that a new winner has emerged since.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:24 pm

Innis Carson wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:49 pm
Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:20 pm
Which octochamp has the smallest range of scores? Which has the smallest coefficient of variation?
Once upon a time I tried to calculate this in the hope that it might be me, but found that I was pipped by Tom Hargreaves. Very possible that I missed someone, though, or that a new winner has emerged since.
I seem to remember Kai Laddiman from somewhere.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Thomas Carey » Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:38 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 3:24 pm
Innis Carson wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 2:49 pm
Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 1:20 pm
Which octochamp has the smallest range of scores? Which has the smallest coefficient of variation?
Once upon a time I tried to calculate this in the hope that it might be me, but found that I was pipped by Tom Hargreaves. Very possible that I missed someone, though, or that a new winner has emerged since.
I seem to remember Kai Laddiman from somewhere.
this is kinda old and also not quite the same thing but basically is

reckon i'd be quite high up on your list sam, got a standard deviation of 4.95 and a higher mean than most of the people on that list. wiki's down atm so i can't check kai's or tom's or whatever but sometimes that's life
cheers maus

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Innis Carson » Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:02 pm

Wow, I am amazed at how comprehensively I managed to misremember that whole exchange. Remarkable.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Sam Cappleman-Lynes » Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:19 pm

Thomas Carey wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:38 pm
reckon i'd be quite high up on your list sam, got a standard deviation of 4.95 and a higher mean than most of the people on that list
Nice. Your higher mean brings the coefficient of variance down below both Tom's and Kai's. Looks like you and Hargreaves both have a range of 13 too, which is a good shout for being the smallest range and therefore an answer to my first question.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:33 pm

Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:19 pm
Thomas Carey wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:38 pm
reckon i'd be quite high up on your list sam, got a standard deviation of 4.95 and a higher mean than most of the people on that list
Nice. Your higher mean brings the coefficient of variance down below both Tom's and Kai's. Looks like you and Hargreaves both have a range of 13 too, which is a good shout for being the smallest range and therefore an answer to my first question.
I've heard rumours that you've been recording. It will be interesting to see where you fit in.

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Graeme Cole
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Graeme Cole » Tue Jul 21, 2020 9:55 pm

This counts all octochamps in the 15-round era, lumping in old 15 rounders with new 15 rounders to annoy pedants. Only the heat games in the octorun are considered.

Smallest difference between lowest and highest score in an octorun (top 10 plus ties):

Code: Select all

name                   lowest  highest    range
--------------------  -------  -------  -------
John Hardie                99      110       11
Tom Hargreaves             98      111       13
Thomas Carey              109      122       13
Jack Welsby                96      112       16
Kai Laddiman               89      105       16
Dylan Taylor              113      129       16
Joe McGonigle              78       95       17
Toby McDonald             104      121       17
Tracey Mills               97      116       19
John Davies                87      106       19
Alex Fish                  93      112       19
Shane Roberts              86      105       19
Giles Hutchings           111      130       19
Zarte Siempre             111      130       19
George Ford                95      114       19
Largest difference between lowest and highest score in an octorun (top 10 plus ties):

Code: Select all

name                   lowest  highest    range
--------------------  -------  -------  -------
Steven Briers              76      136       60
Stewart Holden             79      137       58
Robin Johnson              57      112       55
Carl Williams              62      116       54
Michael Pfeffer            65      119       54
Charlie Reams              73      126       53
Jonathan Liew              68      120       52
Mark Davies                85      137       52
Kevin Thurlow              72      123       51
Dave Taylor                61      112       51
John Osmond                68      119       51
Octorun scores: lowest coefficient of variation (top 10):

Code: Select all

name                    average     stddev   coeffvar
-------------------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Dylan Taylor             121.75       4.24      3.48%
John Hardie              105.62       3.71      3.51%
Thomas Carey             115.38       4.95      4.29%
Tom Hargreaves           106.25       4.74      4.46%
Toby McDonald            110.25       5.29      4.79%
Kai Laddiman              94.50       4.66      4.94%
Giles Hutchings          120.62       5.98      4.96%
Andy Platt               111.12       5.60      5.04%
Jack Welsby              103.88       5.51      5.30%
Tracey Mills             104.50       5.81      5.56%
Octorun scores: highest coefficient of variation (top 10):

Code: Select all

name                    average     stddev   coeffvar
-------------------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Kevin Thurlow             96.12      17.80     18.52%
Dave Taylor               86.38      15.92     18.43%
John Osmond               88.88      16.31     18.35%
Corrina Attwood           85.12      15.02     17.64%
Eoin Jackson              97.25      17.14     17.62%
Carl Williams             88.50      15.39     17.39%
Robin Johnson             93.12      15.99     17.17%
Tia Corkish               87.12      14.66     16.82%
Jimmy Gough               97.75      16.30     16.68%
Andrew Macleod           101.12      16.13     15.95%

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Graeme Cole
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Graeme Cole » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:00 pm

To head off the inevitable questions of "where am I in the list?" I might as well post both lists in full so you can find your names.

Sorted by range:

Code: Select all

name                   lowest  highest    range
--------------------  -------  -------  -------
John Hardie                99      110       11
Tom Hargreaves             98      111       13
Thomas Carey              109      122       13
Jack Welsby                96      112       16
Kai Laddiman               89      105       16
Dylan Taylor              113      129       16
Joe McGonigle              78       95       17
Toby McDonald             104      121       17
Tracey Mills               97      116       19
John Davies                87      106       19
Alex Fish                  93      112       19
Shane Roberts              86      105       19
Giles Hutchings           111      130       19
Zarte Siempre             111      130       19
George Ford                95      114       19
Joe Zubaidi                73       93       20
Andy Platt                100      120       20
Brendan Whitehurst         92      112       20
Innis Carson               94      115       21
Elliott Mack               92      113       21
Eoin Monaghan             100      121       21
Annie Humphries            87      108       21
Mark Murray               100      122       22
Paul Howe                  91      113       22
Richard Brittain           94      116       22
Jeffrey Burgin             73       95       22
Tom Rowell                 87      109       22
Jamie Washington           91      113       22
Tricia Pay                 96      119       23
Amey Deshpande             79      102       23
Nick Wainwright            76       99       23
Jack Hurst                110      133       23
Ned Pendleton              69       92       23
Kevin Steede               85      108       23
James Slater               72       95       23
Dave Ashton                82      105       23
Brenda Jolley              77      101       24
Keith Maynard              86      110       24
Adam Gillard              102      126       24
Edward McCullagh           97      121       24
David Barnard              87      111       24
James Kennedy              80      105       25
David Thirlwall            77      102       25
Conor Travers              99      124       25
Craig Beevers             103      128       25
Tim Reypert                88      113       25
Cate Henderson             88      113       25
Jack Worsley               85      110       25
Chris Marshall             73       98       25
Alan Duval                 68       93       25
Richard Heald              89      115       26
David Von Geyer            72       98       26
Jen Steadman              104      130       26
Wesley Jardine             78      104       26
Jamie Wing                 96      122       26
Paul James                 83      110       27
John Mayhew                91      118       27
Jon O'Neill                87      114       27
Jonathan Rawlinson         93      120       27
Rose Boyle                 73      100       27
Tim Down                   78      105       27
Robin McKay               102      129       27
Stephen Read              104      131       27
David Law                  70       97       27
George Greenhough          86      114       28
Gary Male                  84      112       28
Bradley Cates              95      123       28
Martin May                 89      117       28
Steve Wood                 64       92       28
Ann Dibben                 99      128       29
Marcus Hares               87      116       29
Stephen Briggs             98      127       29
Ross Allatt                81      110       29
Stu Horsey                 76      105       29
Antoinette Ryan            91      120       29
Dave Costello              74      103       29
Paul Harper                77      107       30
Grace Page                 90      120       30
Stuart Earl                83      113       30
Judith Young               71      101       30
David O'Donnell            92      122       30
Neil Zussman               81      111       30
Jayne Wisniewski           72      102       30
Tom Cappleman             105      135       30
Stuart Solomons            86      117       31
Jeffrey Hansford           96      127       31
James Doohan               70      101       31
Danny Pledger              65       96       31
Jonathan Wynn             100      131       31
Paul Keane                 73      104       31
Adam Rolston               68       99       31
Mike Daysley               79      110       31
James Haughton            103      134       31
Andrew Hulme              101      133       32
Chris Cummins              91      123       32
John Gray                  78      110       32
Steven Moir                79      111       32
James Roberts              76      108       32
Martin Bishop              83      115       32
Heather Styles             82      114       32
Jordan Barker              72      104       32
Paul Erdunast              98      130       32
Steven Turnbull            64       96       32
Kirk Bevins                97      130       33
Michael Bowden             73      106       33
Jon Corby                  95      128       33
James Hurrell              88      121       33
Steve Redfern              72      105       33
Julian Fell               104      138       34
Andrew Naylor              76      110       34
Jim Bentley                79      113       34
Oliver Garner              81      115       34
Daniel Pati                93      127       34
Graeme Cole                91      125       34
Elliott Mellor            118      152       34
Andy Evans                 80      114       34
Morgan Sauer               81      115       34
Rupert Stokoe              82      117       35
Danny Hamilton             85      120       35
Martin Gardner             72      107       35
Richard Pay                70      105       35
Jeff Clayton               81      116       35
Scott Gillies              87      122       35
Liam Shaw                  69      104       35
Jean Webby                 76      112       36
Aaron Webber               75      111       36
Andy Noden                 82      118       36
Gerry Tynan                91      127       36
Lawrie Collingwood         70      106       36
Chris Thorn                83      119       36
Maggie Barlow              73      109       36
Tom Silverlock             75      111       36
Chris Wills                92      129       37
Tony Warren                71      108       37
Chris McHenry              62       99       37
Tom Barnes                 86      123       37
Noel McIlvenny             83      120       37
Tony Manwani               67      105       38
Mike Pullin                76      114       38
Paul Gallen                83      121       38
John Hunt                  79      117       38
Mark Tournoff              79      117       38
John Brackstone            81      119       38
Matthew Shore              88      126       38
Tom Chafer-Cook            91      129       38
Graeme Staples             64      102       38
Andrew Jackson             78      116       38
Suzi Purcell               67      106       39
Laurence Killen            79      118       39
Phil Davies                75      114       39
Mark Deeks                 86      126       40
Bradley Horrocks           82      122       40
Fiona Titcombe             69      109       40
Andrew Fenton              71      112       41
David Edwards              72      113       41
Peter Lee                  78      120       42
Julia Wilkinson            80      122       42
Michael Macdonald-Cooper   84      126       42
Samir Pilica               78      120       42
Conrad Teixeira            82      124       42
Paul Nixon                 93      136       43
Nik Von Uexkull            71      114       43
Eileen Taylor              67      111       44
Wendy Roe                  79      123       44
Jimmy Gough                72      116       44
Chris Davies               95      139       44
Lee Hartley                72      117       45
Dan McColm                 92      137       45
Tia Corkish                63      108       45
Matthew Tassier            75      120       45
Sweyn Kirkness             76      122       46
Brian Selway               63      109       46
Andy McGurn                64      110       46
Martin Hurst               83      130       47
Junaid Mubeen              74      121       47
Ryan Taylor                76      123       47
Andrew Macleod             77      124       47
John Shaw                  73      121       48
Jonathan Coles             75      124       49
Moose Rosser               83      132       49
John Cowen                 79      128       49
Eoin Jackson               74      123       49
Glen Webb                  91      141       50
Corrina Attwood            68      118       50
Kevin Thurlow              72      123       51
Dave Taylor                61      112       51
John Osmond                68      119       51
Jonathan Liew              68      120       52
Mark Davies                85      137       52
Charlie Reams              73      126       53
Carl Williams              62      116       54
Michael Pfeffer            65      119       54
Robin Johnson              57      112       55
Stewart Holden             79      137       58
Steven Briers              76      136       60
Sorted by coefficient of variation:

Code: Select all

name                    average     stddev   coeffvar
-------------------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Dylan Taylor             121.75       4.24      3.48%
John Hardie              105.62       3.71      3.51%
Thomas Carey             115.38       4.95      4.29%
Tom Hargreaves           106.25       4.74      4.46%
Toby McDonald            110.25       5.29      4.79%
Kai Laddiman              94.50       4.66      4.94%
Giles Hutchings          120.62       5.98      4.96%
Andy Platt               111.12       5.60      5.04%
Jack Welsby              103.88       5.51      5.30%
Tracey Mills             104.50       5.81      5.56%
Jack Hurst               118.25       6.83      5.78%
Mark Murray              112.75       6.53      5.79%
George Ford              104.00       6.04      5.81%
Zarte Siempre            120.88       7.32      6.06%
Innis Carson             107.62       6.58      6.11%
Eoin Monaghan            112.25       6.89      6.14%
Alex Fish                 99.75       6.22      6.24%
Elliott Mack             100.50       6.34      6.31%
Annie Humphries           96.88       6.19      6.39%
Joe McGonigle             89.50       5.72      6.39%
Stephen Read             114.38       7.48      6.54%
Brendan Whitehurst       102.62       6.76      6.59%
Jen Steadman             119.00       7.89      6.63%
Robin McKay              111.00       7.43      6.70%
Edward McCullagh         112.00       7.65      6.83%
Jack Worsley             102.25       7.08      6.93%
Tricia Pay               107.12       7.46      6.96%
John Davies               95.75       6.81      7.12%
Jamie Washington         103.12       7.37      7.15%
Craig Beevers            113.38       8.18      7.22%
Conor Travers            111.25       8.04      7.23%
Paul Howe                101.88       7.54      7.40%
Adam Gillard             112.88       8.40      7.44%
Tom Cappleman            115.88       8.65      7.47%
Elliott Mellor           132.62      10.01      7.55%
Kevin Steede              99.00       7.48      7.56%
Shane Roberts             95.75       7.28      7.60%
Jon O'Neill              100.50       7.68      7.64%
Cate Henderson            97.75       7.56      7.74%
Tom Rowell                96.75       7.51      7.76%
Tim Reypert               96.62       7.58      7.85%
Rose Boyle                87.62       6.91      7.88%
Paul James                99.25       7.90      7.96%
Richard Heald             99.38       7.97      8.02%
Antoinette Ryan          107.38       8.69      8.09%
Joe Zubaidi               83.12       6.81      8.19%
James Haughton           119.75       9.82      8.20%
Richard Brittain         102.50       8.43      8.22%
George Greenhough        102.12       8.45      8.27%
Jamie Wing               113.62       9.41      8.28%
James Kennedy             92.00       7.68      8.35%
Bradley Cates            107.75       9.01      8.36%
James Slater              84.00       7.05      8.40%
Marcus Hares             104.25       8.76      8.40%
Brenda Jolley             89.75       7.55      8.41%
Alan Duval                84.25       7.10      8.43%
Keith Maynard             98.12       8.28      8.44%
David Barnard             96.38       8.18      8.49%
Ann Dibben               110.50       9.45      8.55%
Julian Fell              115.50       9.89      8.56%
Dave Ashton               92.38       7.94      8.59%
Jonathan Wynn            115.25       9.91      8.60%
Amey Deshpande            89.75       7.74      8.63%
David Von Geyer           90.50       7.84      8.67%
Jonathan Rawlinson       106.25       9.22      8.67%
Martin May               104.88       9.10      8.68%
Paul Erdunast            115.62      10.09      8.72%
Stuart Solomons           99.50       8.76      8.80%
Andrew Hulme             116.25      10.24      8.81%
David O'Donnell          110.00       9.70      8.81%
John Mayhew              101.38       8.97      8.85%
Nick Wainwright           90.75       8.04      8.86%
Grace Page               103.62       9.27      8.95%
Mike Daysley              98.25       8.86      9.01%
Kirk Bevins              115.62      10.66      9.22%
James Doohan              87.75       8.12      9.25%
Michael Bowden            92.38       8.57      9.28%
Jeffrey Burgin            85.62       7.95      9.29%
Jeff Clayton             105.75       9.97      9.43%
David Thirlwall           88.00       8.38      9.52%
David Law                 87.50       8.35      9.54%
Dave Costello             90.38       8.64      9.57%
Stephen Briggs           110.38      10.62      9.62%
Gary Male                 93.75       9.02      9.63%
Chris Cummins            107.25      10.35      9.65%
Jeffrey Hansford         102.25       9.97      9.75%
Steve Wood                84.38       8.35      9.90%
John Gray                 94.62       9.38      9.91%
Heather Styles            92.12       9.24     10.03%
James Roberts             92.00       9.26     10.07%
Ross Allatt               92.62       9.35     10.10%
Neil Zussman              96.00       9.70     10.10%
Chris Marshall            85.25       8.61     10.10%
James Hurrell            104.75      10.59     10.11%
Jon Corby                107.00      10.86     10.15%
Scott Gillies            101.25      10.32     10.19%
Chris Wills              109.38      11.19     10.23%
Bradley Horrocks         108.00      11.22     10.39%
Daniel Pati              105.00      10.92     10.40%
Paul Harper               92.38       9.64     10.44%
Stu Horsey                91.50       9.58     10.47%
Judith Young              88.38       9.29     10.51%
Maggie Barlow             99.25      10.45     10.53%
Gerry Tynan              108.38      11.43     10.55%
Noel McIlvenny            99.12      10.56     10.66%
Martin Bishop            101.12      10.79     10.67%
Rupert Stokoe             97.00      10.37     10.69%
Dan McColm               117.75      12.69     10.77%
Steven Moir               95.38      10.31     10.81%
Graeme Cole              101.62      11.07     10.89%
Tim Down                  89.62       9.84     10.97%
Tom Chafer-Cook          112.00      12.31     10.99%
Danny Hamilton            95.12      10.47     11.01%
John Brackstone          102.75      11.32     11.02%
Matthew Shore            106.25      11.77     11.07%
Stuart Earl              100.88      11.17     11.08%
Paul Gallen              105.75      11.80     11.16%
Mark Deeks               103.00      11.58     11.24%
Andy Noden               103.50      11.64     11.25%
Mike Pullin               94.50      10.63     11.25%
Mark Tournoff            101.12      11.38     11.26%
Chris Davies             111.50      12.59     11.29%
Paul Nixon               111.62      12.61     11.30%
Andrew Naylor             97.62      11.17     11.44%
Wesley Jardine            94.12      10.82     11.50%
Paul Keane                93.00      10.74     11.54%
Samir Pilica             100.12      11.56     11.54%
Jean Webby                92.25      10.73     11.63%
Glen Webb                118.12      13.82     11.70%
Aaron Webber              96.62      11.38     11.78%
Steven Turnbull           78.62       9.33     11.86%
Wendy Roe                 97.62      11.60     11.88%
Jordan Barker             89.12      10.59     11.88%
Steve Redfern             86.12      10.25     11.90%
Chris Thorn               95.00      11.40     12.00%
Morgan Sauer              96.88      11.87     12.25%
Martin Hurst             103.75      12.73     12.27%
Chris McHenry             80.38       9.92     12.35%
Richard Pay               91.50      11.41     12.47%
Tony Manwani              89.38      11.16     12.48%
Ned Pendleton             83.00      10.37     12.49%
Andy Evans                95.00      11.88     12.51%
Tom Barnes               102.75      12.86     12.52%
Jayne Wisniewski          88.12      11.08     12.58%
Michael Macdonald-Cooper  97.50      12.27     12.58%
Laurence Killen           99.25      12.55     12.64%
Danny Pledger             79.38      10.05     12.66%
Graeme Staples            84.75      10.79     12.73%
Oliver Garner            100.25      12.81     12.78%
Phil Davies               94.62      12.11     12.80%
Junaid Mubeen             98.75      12.68     12.84%
Adam Rolston              81.25      10.46     12.88%
Fiona Titcombe            90.00      11.60     12.89%
Tom Silverlock            88.00      11.45     13.01%
Ryan Taylor               99.00      12.97     13.10%
Martin Gardner            93.25      12.22     13.11%
Lawrie Collingwood        91.75      12.05     13.13%
Mark Davies              105.50      13.87     13.15%
Jim Bentley               94.50      12.46     13.19%
Julia Wilkinson           93.00      12.30     13.22%
Andrew Fenton             91.00      12.26     13.47%
John Cowen                99.88      13.58     13.59%
Liam Shaw                 88.50      12.05     13.62%
John Hunt                 98.50      13.43     13.63%
Eileen Taylor             94.25      12.89     13.68%
Peter Lee                100.12      13.72     13.71%
Sweyn Kirkness            95.62      13.28     13.89%
Andrew Jackson            95.50      13.34     13.97%
Nik Von Uexkull           93.62      13.11     14.01%
Lee Hartley              101.38      14.43     14.23%
David Edwards             92.12      13.18     14.30%
Moose Rosser             104.75      15.06     14.38%
Tony Warren               89.00      12.87     14.47%
Suzi Purcell              85.75      12.49     14.56%
Stewart Holden           108.75      15.86     14.58%
Conrad Teixeira          100.75      14.79     14.68%
Michael Pfeffer           96.25      14.32     14.88%
Andy McGurn               87.75      13.13     14.96%
Brian Selway              93.25      13.98     14.99%
Jonathan Coles            93.25      14.11     15.13%
Jonathan Liew             94.25      14.31     15.18%
John Shaw                 96.75      14.69     15.19%
Charlie Reams            102.50      15.59     15.21%
Matthew Tassier           99.88      15.28     15.30%
Steven Briers            105.38      16.44     15.60%
Andrew Macleod           101.12      16.13     15.95%
Jimmy Gough               97.75      16.30     16.68%
Tia Corkish               87.12      14.66     16.82%
Robin Johnson             93.12      15.99     17.17%
Carl Williams             88.50      15.39     17.39%
Eoin Jackson              97.25      17.14     17.62%
Corrina Attwood           85.12      15.02     17.64%
John Osmond               88.88      16.31     18.35%
Dave Taylor               86.38      15.92     18.43%
Kevin Thurlow             96.12      17.80     18.52%

Gavin Chipper
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:14 pm

Innis, you are way down the list.

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Innis Carson
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Innis Carson » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:30 pm

On the contrary - as I recall, I posted the complete list just a couple of hours ago and I was second behind Harvey Freeman.
Last edited by Innis Carson on Tue Jul 21, 2020 11:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Thomas Carey
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Thomas Carey » Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:33 pm

Graeme Cole wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:00 pm

Sorted by coefficient of variation:

Code: Select all

name                    average     stddev   coeffvar
-------------------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Jean Webby                92.25      10.73     11.63%
Glen Webb                118.12      13.82     11.70%
Aaron Webber              96.62      11.38     11.78%

love it. cheers! can't believe i got 3rd again, especially to those two. crushing
cheers maus

Gavin Chipper
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:29 am

I don't actually think coefficient of variation is the best measure. If anything there's a ceiling effect which means that you'd expect lower variance with higher average score.

Sam Cappleman-Lynes
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Sam Cappleman-Lynes » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:37 am

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:29 am
I don't actually think coefficient of variation is the best measure. If anything there's a ceiling effect which means that you'd expect lower variance with higher average score.
This would probably be approximately true if 9 letter words didn't score double. There's also the differences between the solvability of the various numbers selections to contend with. But it's all just a bit of fun.

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Conor » Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:03 am

I've had a tacit assumption that over the years the standard of the top contestants has generally risen while the standard of 'most' contestants has slightly dipped. I don't think there's much point testing the first part, but how about the second?

I'd suggest something like comparing the average maxes (grouped by letters, numbers, conundrum) per game taken from any player who didn't reach the finals. And this can be shown by series (as a time series). I'd still expect a small drop with the dictionary change in 2015. And will be interesting to see if the Apterous effect has trickled down at all.

Tom S
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Tom S » Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:44 am

Conor wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 8:03 am
I've had a tacit assumption that over the years the standard of the top contestants has generally risen while the standard of 'most' contestants has slightly dipped. I don't think there's much point testing the first part, but how about the second?
I'd say that this is an accurate assumption, but would be intrigued to see what the results are.

Gavin Chipper
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:43 am

Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:37 am
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:29 am
I don't actually think coefficient of variation is the best measure. If anything there's a ceiling effect which means that you'd expect lower variance with higher average score.
This would probably be approximately true if 9 letter words didn't score double. There's also the differences between the solvability of the various numbers selections to contend with. But it's all just a bit of fun.
Next question - what is the correlation between octotal and standard deviation?

Sam Cappleman-Lynes
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Sam Cappleman-Lynes » Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:21 am

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:43 am
Next question - what is the correlation between octotal and standard deviation?
Very little correlation. The Spearman's rank coefficient comes out as -0.15, based on the data Graeme has provided.

Gavin Chipper
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Wed Jul 22, 2020 11:23 am

Sam Cappleman-Lynes wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 10:21 am
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 9:43 am
Next question - what is the correlation between octotal and standard deviation?
Very little correlation. The Spearman's rank coefficient comes out as -0.15, based on the data Graeme has provided.
I was half-expecting it to be negative based on what I posted above. Obviously against that was the thing about 9-letter words. Also, while players who average in the 80s might generally have a high standard deviation to their score, those who actually do deviate very much get selected out of the gene pool so to speak. So octotals might be a poor sample for looking at standard deviation for lower averages.

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Ian Volante
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Ian Volante » Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:04 pm

Graeme Cole wrote:
Tue Jul 21, 2020 10:00 pm
To head off the inevitable questions of "where am I in the list?" I might as well post both lists in full so you can find your names.

Sorted by range:

Code: Select all

name                   lowest  highest    range
--------------------  -------  -------  -------
John Hardie                99      110       11
Tom Hargreaves             98      111       13
Thomas Carey              109      122       13
Jack Welsby                96      112       16
Kai Laddiman               89      105       16
Dylan Taylor              113      129       16
Joe McGonigle              78       95       17
Toby McDonald             104      121       17
Tracey Mills               97      116       19
John Davies                87      106       19
Alex Fish                  93      112       19
Shane Roberts              86      105       19
Giles Hutchings           111      130       19
Zarte Siempre             111      130       19
George Ford                95      114       19
Joe Zubaidi                73       93       20
Andy Platt                100      120       20
Brendan Whitehurst         92      112       20
Innis Carson               94      115       21
Elliott Mack               92      113       21
Eoin Monaghan             100      121       21
Annie Humphries            87      108       21
Mark Murray               100      122       22
Paul Howe                  91      113       22
Richard Brittain           94      116       22
Jeffrey Burgin             73       95       22
Tom Rowell                 87      109       22
Jamie Washington           91      113       22
Tricia Pay                 96      119       23
Amey Deshpande             79      102       23
Nick Wainwright            76       99       23
Jack Hurst                110      133       23
Ned Pendleton              69       92       23
Kevin Steede               85      108       23
James Slater               72       95       23
Dave Ashton                82      105       23
Brenda Jolley              77      101       24
Keith Maynard              86      110       24
Adam Gillard              102      126       24
Edward McCullagh           97      121       24
David Barnard              87      111       24
James Kennedy              80      105       25
David Thirlwall            77      102       25
Conor Travers              99      124       25
Craig Beevers             103      128       25
Tim Reypert                88      113       25
Cate Henderson             88      113       25
Jack Worsley               85      110       25
Chris Marshall             73       98       25
Alan Duval                 68       93       25
Richard Heald              89      115       26
David Von Geyer            72       98       26
Jen Steadman              104      130       26
Wesley Jardine             78      104       26
Jamie Wing                 96      122       26
Paul James                 83      110       27
John Mayhew                91      118       27
Jon O'Neill                87      114       27
Jonathan Rawlinson         93      120       27
Rose Boyle                 73      100       27
Tim Down                   78      105       27
Robin McKay               102      129       27
Stephen Read              104      131       27
David Law                  70       97       27
George Greenhough          86      114       28
Gary Male                  84      112       28
Bradley Cates              95      123       28
Martin May                 89      117       28
Steve Wood                 64       92       28
Ann Dibben                 99      128       29
Marcus Hares               87      116       29
Stephen Briggs             98      127       29
Ross Allatt                81      110       29
Stu Horsey                 76      105       29
Antoinette Ryan            91      120       29
Dave Costello              74      103       29
Paul Harper                77      107       30
Grace Page                 90      120       30
Stuart Earl                83      113       30
Judith Young               71      101       30
David O'Donnell            92      122       30
Neil Zussman               81      111       30
Jayne Wisniewski           72      102       30
Tom Cappleman             105      135       30
Stuart Solomons            86      117       31
Jeffrey Hansford           96      127       31
James Doohan               70      101       31
Danny Pledger              65       96       31
Jonathan Wynn             100      131       31
Paul Keane                 73      104       31
Adam Rolston               68       99       31
Mike Daysley               79      110       31
James Haughton            103      134       31
Andrew Hulme              101      133       32
Chris Cummins              91      123       32
John Gray                  78      110       32
Steven Moir                79      111       32
James Roberts              76      108       32
Martin Bishop              83      115       32
Heather Styles             82      114       32
Jordan Barker              72      104       32
Paul Erdunast              98      130       32
Steven Turnbull            64       96       32
Kirk Bevins                97      130       33
Michael Bowden             73      106       33
Jon Corby                  95      128       33
James Hurrell              88      121       33
Steve Redfern              72      105       33
Julian Fell               104      138       34
Andrew Naylor              76      110       34
Jim Bentley                79      113       34
Oliver Garner              81      115       34
Daniel Pati                93      127       34
Graeme Cole                91      125       34
Elliott Mellor            118      152       34
Andy Evans                 80      114       34
Morgan Sauer               81      115       34
Rupert Stokoe              82      117       35
Danny Hamilton             85      120       35
Martin Gardner             72      107       35
Richard Pay                70      105       35
Jeff Clayton               81      116       35
Scott Gillies              87      122       35
Liam Shaw                  69      104       35
Jean Webby                 76      112       36
Aaron Webber               75      111       36
Andy Noden                 82      118       36
Gerry Tynan                91      127       36
Lawrie Collingwood         70      106       36
Chris Thorn                83      119       36
Maggie Barlow              73      109       36
Tom Silverlock             75      111       36
Chris Wills                92      129       37
Tony Warren                71      108       37
Chris McHenry              62       99       37
Tom Barnes                 86      123       37
Noel McIlvenny             83      120       37
Tony Manwani               67      105       38
Mike Pullin                76      114       38
Paul Gallen                83      121       38
John Hunt                  79      117       38
Mark Tournoff              79      117       38
John Brackstone            81      119       38
Matthew Shore              88      126       38
Tom Chafer-Cook            91      129       38
Graeme Staples             64      102       38
Andrew Jackson             78      116       38
Suzi Purcell               67      106       39
Laurence Killen            79      118       39
Phil Davies                75      114       39
Mark Deeks                 86      126       40
Bradley Horrocks           82      122       40
Fiona Titcombe             69      109       40
Andrew Fenton              71      112       41
David Edwards              72      113       41
Peter Lee                  78      120       42
Julia Wilkinson            80      122       42
Michael Macdonald-Cooper   84      126       42
Samir Pilica               78      120       42
Conrad Teixeira            82      124       42
Paul Nixon                 93      136       43
Nik Von Uexkull            71      114       43
Eileen Taylor              67      111       44
Wendy Roe                  79      123       44
Jimmy Gough                72      116       44
Chris Davies               95      139       44
Lee Hartley                72      117       45
Dan McColm                 92      137       45
Tia Corkish                63      108       45
Matthew Tassier            75      120       45
Sweyn Kirkness             76      122       46
Brian Selway               63      109       46
Andy McGurn                64      110       46
Martin Hurst               83      130       47
Junaid Mubeen              74      121       47
Ryan Taylor                76      123       47
Andrew Macleod             77      124       47
John Shaw                  73      121       48
Jonathan Coles             75      124       49
Moose Rosser               83      132       49
John Cowen                 79      128       49
Eoin Jackson               74      123       49
Glen Webb                  91      141       50
Corrina Attwood            68      118       50
Kevin Thurlow              72      123       51
Dave Taylor                61      112       51
John Osmond                68      119       51
Jonathan Liew              68      120       52
Mark Davies                85      137       52
Charlie Reams              73      126       53
Carl Williams              62      116       54
Michael Pfeffer            65      119       54
Robin Johnson              57      112       55
Stewart Holden             79      137       58
Steven Briers              76      136       60
Sorted by coefficient of variation:

Code: Select all

name                    average     stddev   coeffvar
-------------------- ---------- ---------- ----------
Dylan Taylor             121.75       4.24      3.48%
John Hardie              105.62       3.71      3.51%
Thomas Carey             115.38       4.95      4.29%
Tom Hargreaves           106.25       4.74      4.46%
Toby McDonald            110.25       5.29      4.79%
Kai Laddiman              94.50       4.66      4.94%
Giles Hutchings          120.62       5.98      4.96%
Andy Platt               111.12       5.60      5.04%
Jack Welsby              103.88       5.51      5.30%
Tracey Mills             104.50       5.81      5.56%
Jack Hurst               118.25       6.83      5.78%
Mark Murray              112.75       6.53      5.79%
George Ford              104.00       6.04      5.81%
Zarte Siempre            120.88       7.32      6.06%
Innis Carson             107.62       6.58      6.11%
Eoin Monaghan            112.25       6.89      6.14%
Alex Fish                 99.75       6.22      6.24%
Elliott Mack             100.50       6.34      6.31%
Annie Humphries           96.88       6.19      6.39%
Joe McGonigle             89.50       5.72      6.39%
Stephen Read             114.38       7.48      6.54%
Brendan Whitehurst       102.62       6.76      6.59%
Jen Steadman             119.00       7.89      6.63%
Robin McKay              111.00       7.43      6.70%
Edward McCullagh         112.00       7.65      6.83%
Jack Worsley             102.25       7.08      6.93%
Tricia Pay               107.12       7.46      6.96%
John Davies               95.75       6.81      7.12%
Jamie Washington         103.12       7.37      7.15%
Craig Beevers            113.38       8.18      7.22%
Conor Travers            111.25       8.04      7.23%
Paul Howe                101.88       7.54      7.40%
Adam Gillard             112.88       8.40      7.44%
Tom Cappleman            115.88       8.65      7.47%
Elliott Mellor           132.62      10.01      7.55%
Kevin Steede              99.00       7.48      7.56%
Shane Roberts             95.75       7.28      7.60%
Jon O'Neill              100.50       7.68      7.64%
Cate Henderson            97.75       7.56      7.74%
Tom Rowell                96.75       7.51      7.76%
Tim Reypert               96.62       7.58      7.85%
Rose Boyle                87.62       6.91      7.88%
Paul James                99.25       7.90      7.96%
Richard Heald             99.38       7.97      8.02%
Antoinette Ryan          107.38       8.69      8.09%
Joe Zubaidi               83.12       6.81      8.19%
James Haughton           119.75       9.82      8.20%
Richard Brittain         102.50       8.43      8.22%
George Greenhough        102.12       8.45      8.27%
Jamie Wing               113.62       9.41      8.28%
James Kennedy             92.00       7.68      8.35%
Bradley Cates            107.75       9.01      8.36%
James Slater              84.00       7.05      8.40%
Marcus Hares             104.25       8.76      8.40%
Brenda Jolley             89.75       7.55      8.41%
Alan Duval                84.25       7.10      8.43%
Keith Maynard             98.12       8.28      8.44%
David Barnard             96.38       8.18      8.49%
Ann Dibben               110.50       9.45      8.55%
Julian Fell              115.50       9.89      8.56%
Dave Ashton               92.38       7.94      8.59%
Jonathan Wynn            115.25       9.91      8.60%
Amey Deshpande            89.75       7.74      8.63%
David Von Geyer           90.50       7.84      8.67%
Jonathan Rawlinson       106.25       9.22      8.67%
Martin May               104.88       9.10      8.68%
Paul Erdunast            115.62      10.09      8.72%
Stuart Solomons           99.50       8.76      8.80%
Andrew Hulme             116.25      10.24      8.81%
David O'Donnell          110.00       9.70      8.81%
John Mayhew              101.38       8.97      8.85%
Nick Wainwright           90.75       8.04      8.86%
Grace Page               103.62       9.27      8.95%
Mike Daysley              98.25       8.86      9.01%
Kirk Bevins              115.62      10.66      9.22%
James Doohan              87.75       8.12      9.25%
Michael Bowden            92.38       8.57      9.28%
Jeffrey Burgin            85.62       7.95      9.29%
Jeff Clayton             105.75       9.97      9.43%
David Thirlwall           88.00       8.38      9.52%
David Law                 87.50       8.35      9.54%
Dave Costello             90.38       8.64      9.57%
Stephen Briggs           110.38      10.62      9.62%
Gary Male                 93.75       9.02      9.63%
Chris Cummins            107.25      10.35      9.65%
Jeffrey Hansford         102.25       9.97      9.75%
Steve Wood                84.38       8.35      9.90%
John Gray                 94.62       9.38      9.91%
Heather Styles            92.12       9.24     10.03%
James Roberts             92.00       9.26     10.07%
Ross Allatt               92.62       9.35     10.10%
Neil Zussman              96.00       9.70     10.10%
Chris Marshall            85.25       8.61     10.10%
James Hurrell            104.75      10.59     10.11%
Jon Corby                107.00      10.86     10.15%
Scott Gillies            101.25      10.32     10.19%
Chris Wills              109.38      11.19     10.23%
Bradley Horrocks         108.00      11.22     10.39%
Daniel Pati              105.00      10.92     10.40%
Paul Harper               92.38       9.64     10.44%
Stu Horsey                91.50       9.58     10.47%
Judith Young              88.38       9.29     10.51%
Maggie Barlow             99.25      10.45     10.53%
Gerry Tynan              108.38      11.43     10.55%
Noel McIlvenny            99.12      10.56     10.66%
Martin Bishop            101.12      10.79     10.67%
Rupert Stokoe             97.00      10.37     10.69%
Dan McColm               117.75      12.69     10.77%
Steven Moir               95.38      10.31     10.81%
Graeme Cole              101.62      11.07     10.89%
Tim Down                  89.62       9.84     10.97%
Tom Chafer-Cook          112.00      12.31     10.99%
Danny Hamilton            95.12      10.47     11.01%
John Brackstone          102.75      11.32     11.02%
Matthew Shore            106.25      11.77     11.07%
Stuart Earl              100.88      11.17     11.08%
Paul Gallen              105.75      11.80     11.16%
Mark Deeks               103.00      11.58     11.24%
Andy Noden               103.50      11.64     11.25%
Mike Pullin               94.50      10.63     11.25%
Mark Tournoff            101.12      11.38     11.26%
Chris Davies             111.50      12.59     11.29%
Paul Nixon               111.62      12.61     11.30%
Andrew Naylor             97.62      11.17     11.44%
Wesley Jardine            94.12      10.82     11.50%
Paul Keane                93.00      10.74     11.54%
Samir Pilica             100.12      11.56     11.54%
Jean Webby                92.25      10.73     11.63%
Glen Webb                118.12      13.82     11.70%
Aaron Webber              96.62      11.38     11.78%
Steven Turnbull           78.62       9.33     11.86%
Wendy Roe                 97.62      11.60     11.88%
Jordan Barker             89.12      10.59     11.88%
Steve Redfern             86.12      10.25     11.90%
Chris Thorn               95.00      11.40     12.00%
Morgan Sauer              96.88      11.87     12.25%
Martin Hurst             103.75      12.73     12.27%
Chris McHenry             80.38       9.92     12.35%
Richard Pay               91.50      11.41     12.47%
Tony Manwani              89.38      11.16     12.48%
Ned Pendleton             83.00      10.37     12.49%
Andy Evans                95.00      11.88     12.51%
Tom Barnes               102.75      12.86     12.52%
Jayne Wisniewski          88.12      11.08     12.58%
Michael Macdonald-Cooper  97.50      12.27     12.58%
Laurence Killen           99.25      12.55     12.64%
Danny Pledger             79.38      10.05     12.66%
Graeme Staples            84.75      10.79     12.73%
Oliver Garner            100.25      12.81     12.78%
Phil Davies               94.62      12.11     12.80%
Junaid Mubeen             98.75      12.68     12.84%
Adam Rolston              81.25      10.46     12.88%
Fiona Titcombe            90.00      11.60     12.89%
Tom Silverlock            88.00      11.45     13.01%
Ryan Taylor               99.00      12.97     13.10%
Martin Gardner            93.25      12.22     13.11%
Lawrie Collingwood        91.75      12.05     13.13%
Mark Davies              105.50      13.87     13.15%
Jim Bentley               94.50      12.46     13.19%
Julia Wilkinson           93.00      12.30     13.22%
Andrew Fenton             91.00      12.26     13.47%
John Cowen                99.88      13.58     13.59%
Liam Shaw                 88.50      12.05     13.62%
John Hunt                 98.50      13.43     13.63%
Eileen Taylor             94.25      12.89     13.68%
Peter Lee                100.12      13.72     13.71%
Sweyn Kirkness            95.62      13.28     13.89%
Andrew Jackson            95.50      13.34     13.97%
Nik Von Uexkull           93.62      13.11     14.01%
Lee Hartley              101.38      14.43     14.23%
David Edwards             92.12      13.18     14.30%
Moose Rosser             104.75      15.06     14.38%
Tony Warren               89.00      12.87     14.47%
Suzi Purcell              85.75      12.49     14.56%
Stewart Holden           108.75      15.86     14.58%
Conrad Teixeira          100.75      14.79     14.68%
Michael Pfeffer           96.25      14.32     14.88%
Andy McGurn               87.75      13.13     14.96%
Brian Selway              93.25      13.98     14.99%
Jonathan Coles            93.25      14.11     15.13%
Jonathan Liew             94.25      14.31     15.18%
John Shaw                 96.75      14.69     15.19%
Charlie Reams            102.50      15.59     15.21%
Matthew Tassier           99.88      15.28     15.30%
Steven Briers            105.38      16.44     15.60%
Andrew Macleod           101.12      16.13     15.95%
Jimmy Gough               97.75      16.30     16.68%
Tia Corkish               87.12      14.66     16.82%
Robin Johnson             93.12      15.99     17.17%
Carl Williams             88.50      15.39     17.39%
Eoin Jackson              97.25      17.14     17.62%
Corrina Attwood           85.12      15.02     17.64%
John Osmond               88.88      16.31     18.35%
Dave Taylor               86.38      15.92     18.43%
Kevin Thurlow             96.12      17.80     18.52%
Is this just up to series 81 then?
meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles

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Graeme Cole
Series 65 Champion
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Graeme Cole » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:17 pm

Ian Volante wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:04 pm
Is this just up to series 81 then?
Yes, sorry, I should have mentioned. I update the database after the end of each series.

Your range is 29 and your coefficient of variation is 9.68%.

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Ian Volante
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Ian Volante » Thu Jul 23, 2020 12:40 pm

Graeme Cole wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:17 pm
Ian Volante wrote:
Wed Jul 22, 2020 12:04 pm
Is this just up to series 81 then?
Yes, sorry, I should have mentioned. I update the database after the end of each series.

Your range is 29 and your coefficient of variation is 9.68%.
My apparently default position of upper middle.
meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles

Noel Mc
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Noel Mc » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:58 pm

What is the most common final score in the current format?

Noel Mc
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Noel Mc » Thu Jul 23, 2020 8:59 pm

Single player and then final result.

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Graeme Cole
Series 65 Champion
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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Graeme Cole » Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:04 pm

From the start of the current 15-round format to the end of series 81...

Single player: 78 is the most common score (68 times) followed by 80 and 82 (64 times each).

Final score (ignoring order, writing the winner's score first in all cases): 74-69 (6 times) followed by 78-62, 80-70 and 98-77 (5 times each).

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Re: Ask Graeme?

Post by Noel Mc » Mon Jul 27, 2020 6:31 am

Graeme Cole wrote:
Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:04 pm
From the start of the current 15-round format to the end of series 81...

Single player: 78 is the most common score (68 times) followed by 80 and 82 (64 times each).

Final score (ignoring order, writing the winner's score first in all cases): 74-69 (6 times) followed by 78-62, 80-70 and 98-77 (5 times each).
Awesome, thanks :)

One more:

What is the furthest, starting at round one, that two games have got, being identical in their selections.

- With letter/number order in a round important
- Without letter/number order in a round important

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