Which words are the most useful to know?

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Thomas Cappleman
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Re: Which words are the most useful to know?

Post by Thomas Cappleman » Fri Mar 26, 2021 10:09 pm

You can do that in the spreadsheet using the Known column - set the first N to 1, and it'll tell you percentage of rounds you'd max.

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L'oisleatch McGraw
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Re: Which words are the most useful to know?

Post by L'oisleatch McGraw » Thu Apr 01, 2021 1:36 am

Robert Foster wrote:
Tue Mar 23, 2021 12:10 pm
New version with the March dictionary update:

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/ ... OBoD4LcS_4
Hey!
It looks like the March update is not the only change in this version.
I am noticing a few tiny differences in the order of usefulness.
e.g. In V4, ANODISERS and INSULATED were the 85th and 80th most useful nines, now they are the 69th and 72nd.

Was this new list generated with a slightly changed algorithm?
:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: S:778-ochamp

JackHurst
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Re: Which words are the most useful to know?

Post by JackHurst » Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:00 am

L'oisleatch McGraw wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 1:36 am
Hey!
It looks like the March update is not the only change in this version.
I am noticing a few tiny differences in the order of usefulness.
e.g. In V4, ANODISERS and INSULATED were the 85th and 80th most useful nines, now they are the 69th and 72nd.

Was this new list generated with a slightly changed algorithm?
I'll answer on behalf of Rob from what he has told me.

The process for generating the rankings goes as follows:
- Simulate X Million Rounds
- Take the most common max as number 1 in the list
- Remove all of the rounds where word 1 appears as a max
- Take the most common max in those rounds as word 2 in the list
- Remove all rounds where word 2 appears as a max
- etc

You'll see rankings moving around every time for two reasons:
1) The simulation is different every time, so there is random behaviour
2) The dictionary is more baked into the process than you think. If GOATIER got removed, it probably wouldn't be word 2 that shoots to the top of the list. Likewise is something like AGIOTES got added, it might knock GOATIER down a few places.

There's then a follow on question of whether the process needs improving, and if so, how could it be improved. Options for improvement include
- Simulating a larger amount of rounds so the randomness evens out a bit more
- Reusing the same selections every time a new dictionary is measured

However, I'm very grateful for what we get at the moment and it has helped me a lot. I don't think improvements would make much of a difference for the extra effort.

Gavin Chipper
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Re: Which words are the most useful to know?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Thu Apr 01, 2021 7:01 pm

JackHurst wrote:
Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:00 am

The process for generating the rankings goes as follows:
- Simulate X Million Rounds
- Take the most common max as number 1 in the list
- Remove all of the rounds where word 1 appears as a max
- Take the most common max in those rounds as word 2 in the list
- Remove all rounds where word 2 appears as a max
- etc
This is quite interesting. I see this as similar to a system of proportional representation that elects candidates one at a time, rather than altogether. You elect the most supported candidate, and then once you've removed ballots appropriately (or whatever the algorithm is for the particular method) you elect the remaining candidate with the most support. And so on. There are methods that compare whole sets of candidates so are "optimal" rather than "greedy", but generally this would take too much computational power / time to be realistic. Similarly, the same could apply to Countdown words. E.g. The top two words that would max the most selections between them might not be the same as taking the top one and then the top remaining one.

JackHurst
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Re: Which words are the most useful to know?

Post by JackHurst » Fri Apr 09, 2021 12:16 pm

From 5000 Rounds simulated, equal probability 3v 4v 5v.

Image

Code: Select all

24% maxes in top 1000
35% maxes in top 2000
42% maxes in top 3000
48% maxes in top 4000
53% maxes in top 5000
58% maxes in top 6000
61% maxes in top 7000
65% maxes in top 8000
68% maxes in top 9000
70% maxes in top 10000
72% maxes in top 11000
74% maxes in top 12000
76% maxes in top 13000
78% maxes in top 14000
79% maxes in top 15000
81% maxes in top 16000
82% maxes in top 17000
84% maxes in top 18000
85% maxes in top 19000
86% maxes in top 20000
87% maxes in top 21000
87% maxes in top 22000
88% maxes in top 23000
89% maxes in top 24000
90% maxes in top 25000
90% maxes in top 26000
91% maxes in top 27000
92% maxes in top 28000
92% maxes in top 29000
93% maxes in top 30000
93% maxes in top 31000
93% maxes in top 32000
94% maxes in top 33000
94% maxes in top 34000
95% maxes in top 35000
95% maxes in top 36000
95% maxes in top 37000
95% maxes in top 38000
96% maxes in top 39000
96% maxes in top 40000

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