So, who will be the founding member of Countdown's "1000 CLUB"?

[L'oisleatch McGraw]

So, Countdown has had the 800 club, then Julian Fell smashed through 900, and was the solitary member in the 900 club for quite some time. Recently the 900 club has expanded, and seems easier to enter than it once was. Surely it’s only a matter of time before someone founds the 1,000 club? It’s like waiting for the other shoe to fall…

The other night in Apto-Chat Aidan Linge mentioned to me that they had had a huge discussion about the 1,000 club and that the consensus was that it is highly unlikely to happen. My opinion… the 1,000 club will be founded before Series 100, and possibly before Series 80.

Here’s the reasoning:-
1. Since the establishment of Apterous as the ultimate training ground, the top players have been able to scale higher heights. The composition of the 900 club attests to that.
2. The new 15 round format allows for higher average maxes per Octorun.
3. The recent flood of new eligible words since the switch to the ODO, increases the average max per Octorun yet again.

---------------------------------------------------------

To examine how much the average maxes have increased by I have done a rough & dirty analysis of the latest series (S75) compared to an earlier series (S55). I have split the first 96 heat games of S75 into 12 sets of 8 games (i.e. Potential Octoruns) and have also done a similar job with the 128 heat games of S55. I’ve worked out the maximums for each Octorun, and from that data have listed the highest and lowest octomaxes and also the average octomax per series. Here is that data…


Series 75

Potential Octorun #01. [6385-6392] = Max of 1025
Potential Octorun #02. [6393-6400] = Max of 1072
Potential Octorun #03. [6401-6408] = Max of 1029
Potential Octorun #04. [6409-6416] = Max of 1049
Potential Octorun #05. [6417-6424] = Max of 1051
Potential Octorun #06. [6425-6432] = Max of 1083
Potential Octorun #07. [6433-6440] = Max of 1060
Potential Octorun #08. [6441-6448] = Max of 1050
Potential Octorun #09. [6449-6456] = Max of 1077
Potential Octorun #10. [6457-6464] = Max of 1073
Potential Octorun #11. [6465-6472] = Max of 1093
Potential Octorun #12. [6473-6480] = Max of 1074

Highest max = 1093
Lowest max = 1025
Average max = 1061



Series 55

Potential Octorun #01. [4128-4135] = Max of 1048
Potential Octorun #02. [4136-4143] = Max of 990
Potential Octorun #03. [4144-4151] = Max of 1014
Potential Octorun #04. [4152-4159] = Max of 1066
Potential Octorun #05. [4160-4167] = Max of 997
Potential Octorun #06. [4168-4175] = Max of 1003
Potential Octorun #07. [4176-4183] = Max of 1037
Potential Octorun #08. [4184-4191] = Max of 1053
Potential Octorun #09. [4192-4199] = Max of 1013
Potential Octorun #10. [4200-4207] = Max of 1004
Potential Octorun #11. [4208-4215] = Max of 1050
Potential Octorun #12. [4216-4223] = Max of 1024
Potential Octorun #13. [4224-4231] = Max of 1014
Potential Octorun #14. [4232-4239] = Max of 1032
Potential Octorun #15. [4240-4247] = Max of 991
Potential Octorun #16. [4248-4255] = Max of 1011

Highest max = 1066
Lowest max = 990
Average max = 1022


---------------------------------------------------------

Then I turned my attention to the brightest and best that have ever competed… starting with the 900 club. Here are the members of the 900 club listed in chronological order. I’ve put dotted lines in to show:-
a) when the Apterous effect kicked in in earnest.
b) when the new 15 rounder was implemented.
c) when the dictionary switch to the expanded ODO was made.


[S48] Julian F. (924) = Max of 1015 [91%]
[S57] Craig B. (907) = Max of 987 [92%]
-----------------------apterous-----------------------
[S60] Kirk B. (925) = Max of 1031 [90%]
[S61] Andrew H. (930) = Max of 1077 [86%]
[S63] Jack H. (946) = Max of 1031 [92%]
[S64] Adam G. (903) = Max of 1044 [87%]
------------------new 15-rounder-------------------
[S68] Giles H. (965) = Max of 1060 [91%]
[S69] Glen W. (945) = Max of 1093 [87%]
[S69] Dylan T. (974) = Max of 1050 [93%]
[S69] Jen S. (952) = Max of 1024 [93%]
------------------expanded ODO-------------------
[S70] Mark M. (902) = Max of 1058 [85%]
[S71] Dan McC. (942) = Max of 1026 [92%]
[S72] Tom C. (927) = Max of 1011 [92%]
[S73] Jonathan W. (922) = Max of 1037 [89%]
[S73] Thomas C. (923) = Max of 1025 [90%]
[S74] Paul E. (925) = Max of 1056 [88%]


The above data shows:-
1. The 900 club has been far easier to access since Apterous has been around.
2. Since S68, there has been one entrant to the 900 club per series. (S75 being the exception that proves the rule! )
3. Each of these competitors had the potential (assuming they maxed every game) of breaking the 1000 barrier… (Well, there is an exception to this too. Craig Beevers' octomax was a mere 987.)


---------------------------------------------------------

I also took a look at some other notable legends of the game who scored in the 700s and 800s. Here they are in series chronological order:-

[S47] Chris W. (875) = Max of 1085 [81%]
[S47] Tom H. (850) = Max of 1015 [84%]
[S50] Jim B. (756) = Max of 978 [77%]
[S50] Chris C. (858) = Max of 1045 [82%]
[S51] Sweyn K. (765) = Max of 972 [79%]
[S52] Paul G. (846) = Max of 1010 [84%]
[S54] Jon C. (856) = Max of 1024 [84%]
[S54] Matthew S. (850) = Max of 1037 [82%]
[S54] Conor T. (890) = Max of 1021 [87%]
[S55] Steven Briers. (843) = Max of 1043 [81%]
[S55] Richard B. (820) = Max of 1037 [79%]
[S58] David O’D. (880) = Max of 995 [88%]
[S59] Martin B. (809) = Max of 972 [83%]
-----------------------apterous-----------------------
[S60] Neill Z. (758) = Max of 974 [78%]
[S61] Chris D. (892) = Max of 1013 [88%]
[S61] Innis C. (861) = Max of 1011 [85%]
[S62] Oliver G. (802) = Max of 978 [82%]
[S63] Eoin M. (898) = Max of 1036 [87%]
[S64] Ed McC. (896) = Max of 979 [92%]
[S65] Mark D. (824) = Max of 998 [83%]
[S65] Graeme C. (813) = Max of 980 [83%]
[S66] Jonathan R. (850) = Max of 982 [87%]
[S66] Jack W. (818) = Max of 1030 [79%]
------------------new 15-rounder-------------------
[S68] Andy P. (889) = Max of 1036 [86%]
------------------expanded ODO-------------------
[S73] Stephen Briggs. (883) = Max of 1035 [85%]
[S74] Robin McK. (888) = Max of 1119 [79%]
[S74] Ann D. (884) = Max of 1069 [83%]
[S75] Martin H. (830) = Max of 1069 [78%]
[S75] Jamie W. (825) = Max of 1070 [77%]
[S75] Andrew M. (809) = Max of 1099 [74%]
[S75] Annie H. (775) = Max of 1058 [73%]


From this set of data, these trends interest me the most:-
1. The number of top talents who can achieve 85% or higher of the available max has more than doubled (you could argue, more than tripled) since the advent of apterous.
2. Since the switch to the ODO, it has become incredibly rare (has it even happened once?) that an octomax total is lower than 1000.


---------------------------------------------------------

Seeming as I’ve done the number crunching anyway, I suppose it’s time to indulge in a little statsturbation. Here are some fun Top 10s.

Top 10 players when arranged by Octototals:-

#1. [S69] Dylan T. (974) = Max of 1050 [93%]
#2. [S68] Giles H. (965) = Max of 1060 [91%]
#3. [S69] Jen S. (952) = Max of 1024 [93%]
#4. [S63] Jack H. (946) = Max of 1031 [92%]
#5. [S69] Glen W. (945) = Max of 1093 [87%]
#6. [S71] Dan McC. (942) = Max of 1026 [92%]
#7. [S61] Andrew H. (930) = Max of 1077 [86%]
#8. [S72] Tom C. (927) = Max of 1011 [92%]
#9. [S60] Kirk B. (925) = Max of 1031 [90%]
#10. [S74] Paul E. (925) = Max of 1056 [88%]

You have to feel some sympathy for Julian who fell out of the Top 10 earlier this year when Mr. Transude Transude pipped his total by 1pt.



Top 10 octoruns (using only the list of notable octoruns above) when arranged by the total max available:-

#1. [S74] Robin McK. (888) = Max of 1119 [79%]
#2. [S75] Andrew M. (809) = Max of 1099 [74%]
#3. [S69] Glen W. (945) = Max of 1093 [87%]
#4. [S47] Chris W. (875) = Max of 1085 [81%]
#5. [S61] Andrew H. (930) = Max of 1077 [86%]
#6. [S75] Jamie W. (825) = Max of 1070 [77%]
#7. [S74] Ann D. (884) = Max of 1069 [83%]
#8. [S75] Martin H. (830) = Max of 1069 [78%]
#9. [S68] Giles H. (965) = Max of 1060 [91%]
#10. [S70] Mark M. (902) = Max of 1058 [85%]
#10. [S75] Annie H. (775) = Max of 1058 [73%]

Robin’s crazily high max suggests that a mixture of prodigious skill and incredible luck *could* potentially lead to the founding of the 1100 club one day!

Do you see how many of those high maxes come from Series 70 or later? The 1000 club is unpopulated as yet, but the clock is ticking.



Most crucially, here are the top 10 players when arranged by percentage max achieved:-

#1. [S69] Jen S. (952) = Max of 1024 [93%]
#2. [S69] Dylan T. (974) = Max of 1050 [93%]
#3. [S57] Craig B. (907) = Max of 987 [92%]
#4. [S71] Dan McC. (942) = Max of 1026 [92%]
#5. [S63] Jack H. (946) = Max of 1031 [92%]
#6. [S72] Tom C. (927) = Max of 1011 [92%]
#7. [S64] Ed McC. (896) = Max of 979 [92%]
#8. [S68] Giles H. (965) = Max of 1060 [91%]
#9. [S48] Julian F. (924) = Max of 1015 [91%]
#10. [S73] Thomas C. (923) = Max of 1025 [90%]

Spare a thought for Kirk who misses this Top 10 by a whisker. He is tied with Thomas on 90% maxes, but as Thomas’s % is actually 90.0488% and Kirk’s is 89.7187%, Thomas takes 10th place.


---------------------------------------------------------

Final observations and conclusions:-


1. If you are looking at best Octorun ever, there is a strong argument to be made for queen of Countdowning, Jennifer Steadman. Her octomax percentage is fractionally higher than 2nd placed Dylan's.

2. You have to feel some sympathy for the many players (especially from older Series’) who were denied the potential of entering the 1000 club as their octomaxes were <1000. Notably Lee H, George G, Jim B, Sweyn K, Craig B, Michael MacD-C, David O’D, Martin B, Kai L, Neil Z, Oliver G, Ed McC, Mark D, Graeme C, Jonathan R.

3. Of those only Craig Beevers managed to join the 900 club, and only Beevers and Ed McCullagh managed to score in excess of 90% of the available max.

4. The greatest players have managed to operate at a 93% max rate.

5. Operating at 93% you would need the overall max to exceed 1077 to join the 1000 club.

6. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that someone of Julian Fell’s talent with Callum Todd’s Apto-training could operate at a 95% max rate in the future.

7. Operating at 95%, you would only need an available octomax of 1052 to join the 1000 club.

8. Given that the average octomax for the current series is 1061, surely the very first 1000 scorer (kilochamp?) is due to grace our screens before S80?

9. As it stands, if any of the 11 players who operated at 90% max or higher, had been fortunate enough to have a McKay-esque max of 1119, they would be in the 1000 club right now with an octototal of no lower than 1007pts.

10. The only exciting question left is who will it be??! If I were a betting man (and I often am!) my money would be on Matthew Brockwell or Zarte Siempre to be the first… with the likes of Stephen Read, Eddy Byrne, Robert Miller also in the frame.

11. You have to wonder if the potential accolade of founding the 1000 club might be enough to tempt the likes of James Nguyen, Robert Foster, Matt Bayfield, Jamie McNeill, Dale Levell, Matt Hall, Barry Bridger, Chris Hare, Toby Pereira etc etc etc (the list is not exhaustive) onto the show?

12. Or maybe the first member of the 1000 club is someone who has yet to discover the online community? All we can say for sure is… we are living in interesting times. A golden age of Countdowning… that has yet to reach a peak.

[Thomas Carey]

brocky obv

[Euan Slatter]

Random prediction - S81. Just 3 years to wait...!

[Martin Hurst]

Nice research mate - interesting stuff

[Johnny Canuck]

Nice number crunching, L'oisleatch. And yeah, I think Matthew B will be able to do it if he gets a reasonably high octomax (picking 1 large in the heats would help him). Is he shooting for Series 77?

I think Antoinette Ryan may have had an 1100+ octomax, and that was before the new dictionary update.

[L'oisleatch McGraw]

S77 is what I've heard.
Same one as me...

[Gavin Chipper]

Interesting thread. I definitely think that this is possible. When Dylan got 974, he missed three conundrums, and some people have got all 8 before, so it just needs the pieces to come together.

Also, several people have achieved 1000+ Mocktoruns on Apterous, so it's been done there. Obviously these are generally against Prune so there's no chance of being beaten by your opponent, but if you're getting that sort of raw score, you're unlikely to be losing that many rounds to your opponent in an average octorun. And also, people get as many chances as they want at a Mocktorun, so it's easier to achieve than in a one-off.

In terms of percentage of the max, some people have achieved a high enough percentage of the max so that they would have got 1000 with the same percentage with a more generous max available, so from that point of view it looks doable. But on the other hand there is an argument that it's easier to get a higher percentage of the max when a lower max is available. I know it's only a single data point, but Helen Grayson got the highest percentage of the max of any player in the 9-round era in her 7-game run (she retired early for some reason). It also says on the Countdown database that the eight consecutive games starting from her first had the lowest max available of any eight consecutive games. That's a pretty freaky coincidence whichever way you look at it, but it's slightly less so if a lower max makes a higher percentage easier.

In terms of predicting who might do it, that's very hard. I don't think any player will go into their games with an odds on chance of achieving it. What it takes really is a lot of really good players going on, and that way there's a good chance that at least one of them will play to their ability and have a good max available.

[L'oisleatch McGraw]

In terms of predicting who might do it, that's very hard.

So Brocky then... obv.

Would you be with me in predicting a kilochamp B4 S80?
It seems like it's imminent...

[Matt Bayfield]

To score near the elevated available maxes of recent times, you'd need a player who regularly spots most of the new ODO obscure but high probability nines. This is someone for whom e.g. RANTIPOLE becomes a routine spot, in much the same way that e.g. SEALPOINT became a routine spot for apterites of several years' standing. I'm not sure any current apterites who have yet to appear on the show, have had enough time yet for all of these new 9s to become sufficiently firmly embedded in their memories. But once players have been seeing these words on multiple occasions in-game for two or more years, I reckon that's when they'll begin to stick. So I wouldn't be surprised to see 1000 points broken around Series 80 - and that could be by a current apterite, or someone not currently known.

And point 11 in the OP is a nice theory, but for those of us for whom the prospect of possibly becoming series champion isn't even motivation enough to apply for televised Countdown, I doubt the lure of scoring 1000 is likely to be an incentive.

[JimBentley]

To score near the elevated available maxes of recent times, you'd need a player who regularly spots most of the new ODO obscure but high probability nines. This is someone for whom e.g. RANTIPOLE becomes a routine spot, in much the same way that e.g. SEALPOINT became a routine spot for apterites of several years' standing. I'm not sure any current apterites who have yet to appear on the show, have had enough time yet for all of these new 9s to become sufficiently firmly embedded in their memories. But once players have been seeing these words on multiple occasions in-game for two or more years, I reckon that's when they'll begin to stick. So I wouldn't be surprised to see 1000 points broken around Series 80 - and that could be by a current apterite, or someone not currently known.

And point 11 in the OP is a nice theory, but for those of us for whom the prospect of possibly becoming series champion isn't even motivation enough to apply for televised Countdown, I doubt the lure of scoring 1000 is likely to be an incentive.

Matt makes some good points here (as ever). I'm kind of glad that I went on in the pre-apterous days when all this sort of thing wasn't even considered as a "thing". It would be too much pressure these days (not that I'm suggesting that I could ever have got anywhere near 1000; I couldn't).

[L'oisleatch McGraw]

for those of us for whom the prospect of possibly becoming series champion isn't even motivation enough to apply for televised Countdown, I doubt the lure of scoring 1000 is likely to be an incentive.

I hear ya.
However, when you consider that there have already been 74 series champions, it's not an extra-special achievement. Being the first to set a phenomenal (but not impossible) new record would be seen by some as a more powerful incentive. Possibly powerful enough that one or two of the "I don't wanna go on TV" lads, reconsider.

[Johnny Canuck]

Although I'm confidently predicting that the 1000+ octototal barrier will be broken within the next few years, I'm expecting that the 150+ single-game score barrier is going to go first, probably within the next two series if all the people who are rumoured to be going on soon actually do. Games with 150+ maxes seem to be coming up at least once every two weeks, and all that needs to happen is for a strong Apterite (possibly one who has a good knowledge of useful new 9s) to deliver a strong performance on one of these games. Honestly, I'm quite surprised that Julian Fell's 146 record took so long to be matched.

[Jennifer Steadman]

all the people who are rumoured to be going on soon actually do

Are there that many?

If Brockwell doesn't do it - and I think it's v unlikely that he will - I don't think 1000 will be breached, at least not for a looong time, unless Stephen Read can smash it. Even with the skill, it requires so many things to go the right way: decent number of spottable 9s, serious endurance/focus/consistency/composure, opponents who won't beat you to the conundrum or spot things you won't, and a bit of luck. (Plus this is all assuming that there isn't another big dictionary change with more archaic or obscure words being removed.)

Eoin, you say that it's 'imminent' - why do the many stats listed make it look imminent? Most of the 'big' players online have been on already. Those that lost and improved later on will have to wait at least a few more years. The highest-scoring players who've been on since the new dictionary changes, several of whom learned the common new 9s, have been at least 70 points short, despite high max percentages and maxes available. You can read that as 4 9s (which is a lot!), but in reality it's more than that - they're likely to get a 7 or 8 from the selection anyway, meaning they're only picking up 10 extra points per 9, and therefore making it more like 7 extra 9s needed. That's huge. Sure, people will pick up more of the new words over time, and there'll be more talented newbies who become the new 'big' players in time, but for new words to have the huge boost required you'd need to team it with having learned all the old words/semi-regular 9s. People who fit the bill and are also interested and eligible are in short supply.

I don't think it would be an incentive for anyone who wasn't already interested in going on either, plus I think aiming for it would be more likely to hinder than help. Not to mention be a bit twatty.

[L'oisleatch McGraw]

I think aiming for it would be more likely to hinder than help. Not to mention be a bit twatty.

We had Judge Judy, and now we've got Judgemental Jen!

Come on! Not all openly ambitious / competitive people are twatty...
I'd actually admire the straightforward honest ambition of a Dylan Taylor type of contestant.
There is nothing wrong with having an eye on the record books, if there is even a slim chance it's in reach.
What would be worse is someone feeling shame about their level of ambition, and adopting a veneer of false humility.

But yeah... some of the stuff in your post is certainly food for thought. Like, you mention that most of the big players have already been on... and there aren't too many known talents waiting in the wings at present. The question that raises is:- how long do you think it would take someone of a high natural ability to train on Apterous before they have a chance of Series champdom? hmmm. Are there any notable precedents there? Definitely an interesting one. Is it feasible that a newbie could reach a standard high enough after 12 months on the site... or maybe even after 6?

1040 is the highest max possible with no 9's.
Imagine how amazing it would be if someone broke through 1000 without a single 9 letter word?

The reason I say it's "imminent" is partly for melodramatic purposes, and partly because the conditions for scoring >1000 seem more favourable right now than at any other time in the show's history. (the online training ground of Apterous, the higher average max per game available)

[Johnny Canuck]

My comment regarding the people going on soon pertained to the 150+ score record, not the kilochamp record. But with regard to the latter, I agree that Brocky is the only reasonably likely shot at 1000.

[samir pilica]

My money is on Barry Bridger. A brilliant player, very strong in every aspect of the game.

[Zarte Siempre]

1. The 900 club has been far easier to access since Apterous has been around

Dunno that I'd say it's been easier to access as a concept. Maxes have gone up because of the dictionary sure, but I don't think Apterous has made it easier. Unless you're implying the use of it as led to more people being good enough. But in that case, it requires a hell of a lot of practise, so I think easier's still the wrong choice of adjective really

10. The only exciting question left is who will it be??! If I were a betting man (and I often am!) my money would be on Matthew Brockwell or Zarte Siempre to be the first… with the likes of Stephen Read, Eddy Byrne, Robert Miller also in the frame.

11. You have to wonder if the potential accolade of founding the 1000 club might be enough to tempt the likes of James Nguyen, Robert Foster, Matt Bayfield, Jamie McNeill, Dale Levell, Matt Hall, Barry Bridger, Chris Hare, Toby Pereira etc etc etc (the list is not exhaustive) onto the show?

12. Or maybe the first member of the 1000 club is someone who has yet to discover the online community? All we can say for sure is… we are living in interesting times. A golden age of Countdowning… that has yet to reach a peak.

In order (just my honest opinions) - Possible but unlikely - unlikely and no time soon as I was only on 3 1/2 ago - most likely if he actually wanted to apply which I don't think he does - unlikely and no time soon - not if he went on now, but with natural progression would be plausible (though we don't know that he even exists) - maybe, but unlikely even if he were interested - numbers would let him down - has no interest - has no interest - isn't a real person - no - no - maybe but doesn't seem to be interested - no - that's probably the most plausible suggestion.

I think it'll happen one day, but I doubt it'll be any time particularly soon. Wouldn't be at all surprised if it creeps up by a couple of points at a time for a couple of decades first.

[Innis Carson]

[Dale Levell] isn't a real person

I find it weird how this seems to have become accepted as a self-evident fact, having originally been (apparently) flippant and baseless speculation. Was it confirmed at any point?

[Stephen R]

Read through this thread with interest, and seeing as I've been playing a lot of Mocktoruns recently, and I'm currently waiting on a recording date, I thought I'd include some data of my own to illustrate just how difficult/luck-based an octototal of 1000 actually is to score.

Since the start of November, I've played 25 Mocktoruns against Prune. All numbers selections were 2 large where possible. My scores are below, as well as the octomax and how many 9-letter words were available in each game:

Code: Select all

Score	Maxes	Max Score	% score	Nines Gotten	Nines Available
1011		85		1075		94.04651163		7		7
1008		87		1092		92.30769231		7		10
977		83		1078		90.63079777		6		10
975		84		1055		92.41706161		5		7
962		76		1120		85.89285714		4		12
960		77		1047		91.69054441		6		7
957		79		1069		89.52291862		4		9
944		74		1025		92.09756098		3		4
939		73		1026		91.52046784		3		4
937		71		1062		88.22975518		5		8
935		84		1035		90.33816425		3		6
934		81		1046		89.29254302		3		7
928		72		1043		88.97411314		2		6
924		82		1035		89.27536232		2		6
921		76		1043		88.3029722		3		7
917		75		997		91.97592778		1		2
916		80		1030		88.93203883		3		6
910		83		1052		86.50190114		1		7
904		72		1045		86.50717703		4		7
903		77		1032		87.5		        2		5
902		69		1079		83.59592215		3		9
901		74		1064		84.68045113		7		8
898		77		1012		88.73517787		1		3
897		82		1001		89.61038961		2		2
865		69		1008		85.81349206		1		3

Averages are:

Score - 933
Maxes - 77.68
Max Score - 1046.84
% Score - 89.14%
Nines Gotten - 3.52
Nines Available - 6.48

As you can see, it's possible to score 1000 (in fact my PB is 1012, set in July, and I've had other scores in the 980s and 990s), but my average performance is nowhere near that. For every game over 1000, there's a game under 900 where I'm off form or just don't have the nines available. Also, human opponents won't be as co-operative as Prune (not contesting conundrums, not picking 4 large or 6 small numbers, not punishing any errors I make etc).

Jen's comment about the number of nines required looks about right - I saw 7 nines in both my 1000+ games, and in a few of the other higher-scoring games I could have nudged 1000 if I'd seen the nines that I missed (a lot easier said than done!). As well as seeing the nines when they come up, it's just as important (if not more so) to score in every round. Blobbing a numbers game or missing a conundrum is as costly as getting an eight instead of a nine in a letters round.

It's interesting to note that the average max of my Mocktoruns (1047) is 14 points lower than the average octomax in this latest series. This could be due to the shuffling patterns on the show leading to very slightly more favourable letters selections, although a larger sample size would be more helpful here.

In terms of individual games, the game scores in my 1011 run were 117-153-114-120-120-114-141-132, and in my 1008 run were 134-120-154-117-115-112-132-124. I'd have to rely on a couple of monster scores (140+) to bring up my average, but a better player who could consistently score in the 120s would be able to get away with less luck. I think Dylan's highest score in his octorun was "only" 129, but he had incredible consistency which allowed him to get the current 8-game record.

Is it possible for me or Matthew Brockwell to score 1000+ when we go on the show? Technically yes, in the same way that it's technically possible for Reading to win this year's FA Cup. But I wouldn't bet on it, at least not from me. Matthew has a better shot at it, he has better word knowledge and he's more consistent than I am. Either way, I'm not going to be chasing records or thinking about them. It's more about enjoying the experience of the studio.

[Zarte Siempre]

and I'm currently waiting on a recording date

Then I do beg your pardon - I was under the impression you were one of the non-interested ones. Really pleased to hear this.

OK, could be sooner than anticipated with a bit of luck - and I'll be wishing you lots of it

[Matt Morrison]

We're all Dale Levell

[Conor]

won't happen

[Charlie Reams]

FYI this cdb page shows the highest possible 8-game totals ever: http://cdb.apterous.org/octomax.php . Robin McKay could've got 1133!

[Johnny Canuck]

Robin McKay could've got 1133!

Nah, with the contestant order / filming schedule being the way it was, he couldn't have. But Struan Charters could have if he did a wee bit better.

[Charlie Reams]

Robin McKay could've got 1133!

Nah, with the contestant order / filming schedule being the way it was, he couldn't have. But Struan Charters could have if he did a wee bit better.

Sorry for the mistake, the page does actually say Struan Chambers! I wrote Robin McKay because one of his games had been entered twice, which meant he was top, but I've fixed that now.

8/1133, not bad.

[Gavin Chipper]

What do people think people like Conor Travers or Jack Worsley would be expected to get if they went on the show now?

[Euan Slatter]

What do people think people like Conor Travers or Jack Worsley would be expected to get if they went on the show now?

Defo not far off 1000, maybe 980s?!

[Heather Styles]

Records are there to be broken, and 1000 in an octorun is not beyond the realms of possibility. It would certainly be extraordinarily unlikely, for reasons already outlined. I wouldn't like to speculate about which current players might be capable of it because I think it risks generating an unhealthy level of pressure on those players. It also risks killing the essentially lighthearted mood of the programme when you have people on who are so intent on breaking records that they are a misery to watch. I do admire those players, but spare a thought for the core audience. Also, no player can control their opponent's picks, so they could pick and play excellently throughout but if they meet some 3- or 5-vowelling twat along the way, there's not a lot they can do about it. Oh, and who's Toby Pereira? Whoever he is, he probably ought to go on.

[Tracey Anne Mills]

My money would be on Matthew Brockwell to achieve over a 1000 in his run, but don't write off Barry Bridger or Stephen Read as of yet.

[Tracey Anne Mills]

Read through this thread with interest, and seeing as I've been playing a lot of Mocktoruns recently, and I'm currently waiting on a recording date, I thought I'd include some data of my own to illustrate just how difficult/luck-based an octototal of 1000 actually is to score.

Since the start of November, I've played 25 Mocktoruns against Prune. All numbers selections were 2 large where possible. My scores are below, as well as the octomax and how many 9-letter words were available in each game:

Code: Select all

Score	Maxes	Max Score	% score	Nines Gotten	Nines Available
1011		85		1075		94.04651163		7		7
1008		87		1092		92.30769231		7		10
977		83		1078		90.63079777		6		10
975		84		1055		92.41706161		5		7
962		76		1120		85.89285714		4		12
960		77		1047		91.69054441		6		7
957		79		1069		89.52291862		4		9
944		74		1025		92.09756098		3		4
939		73		1026		91.52046784		3		4
937		71		1062		88.22975518		5		8
935		84		1035		90.33816425		3		6
934		81		1046		89.29254302		3		7
928		72		1043		88.97411314		2		6
924		82		1035		89.27536232		2		6
921		76		1043		88.3029722		3		7
917		75		997		91.97592778		1		2
916		80		1030		88.93203883		3		6
910		83		1052		86.50190114		1		7
904		72		1045		86.50717703		4		7
903		77		1032		87.5		        2		5
902		69		1079		83.59592215		3		9
901		74		1064		84.68045113		7		8
898		77		1012		88.73517787		1		3
897		82		1001		89.61038961		2		2
865		69		1008		85.81349206		1		3

Averages are:

Score - 933
Maxes - 77.68
Max Score - 1046.84
% Score - 89.14%
Nines Gotten - 3.52
Nines Available - 6.48

As you can see, it's possible to score 1000 (in fact my PB is 1012, set in July, and I've had other scores in the 980s and 990s), but my average performance is nowhere near that. For every game over 1000, there's a game under 900 where I'm off form or just don't have the nines available. Also, human opponents won't be as co-operative as Prune (not contesting conundrums, not picking 4 large or 6 small numbers, not punishing any errors I make etc).

Jen's comment about the number of nines required looks about right - I saw 7 nines in both my 1000+ games, and in a few of the other higher-scoring games I could have nudged 1000 if I'd seen the nines that I missed (a lot easier said than done!). As well as seeing the nines when they come up, it's just as important (if not more so) to score in every round. Blobbing a numbers game or missing a conundrum is as costly as getting an eight instead of a nine in a letters round.

It's interesting to note that the average max of my Mocktoruns (1047) is 14 points lower than the average octomax in this latest series. This could be due to the shuffling patterns on the show leading to very slightly more favourable letters selections, although a larger sample size would be more helpful here.

In terms of individual games, the game scores in my 1011 run were 117-153-114-120-120-114-141-132, and in my 1008 run were 134-120-154-117-115-112-132-124. I'd have to rely on a couple of monster scores (140+) to bring up my average, but a better player who could consistently score in the 120s would be able to get away with less luck. I think Dylan's highest score in his octorun was "only" 129, but he had incredible consistency which allowed him to get the current 8-game record.

Is it possible for me or Matthew Brockwell to score 1000+ when we go on the show? Technically yes, in the same way that it's technically possible for Reading to win this year's FA Cup. But I wouldn't bet on it, at least not from me. Matthew has a better shot at it, he has better word knowledge and he's more consistent than I am. Either way, I'm not going to be chasing records or thinking about them. It's more about enjoying the experience of the studio.

You could achieve this Stephen you are pretty capable of doing that !

[L'oisleatch McGraw]

Oh, and who's Toby Pereira? Whoever he is, he probably ought to go on.

You got me there, Heather.
Just a name I made up on the spot to see if people were paying attention, (much like 'L'oisleatch McGraw', come to think of it).
But yeah, if he does exist out there somewhere, and assuming he hasn't been on the show during the last two decades... I'd say going on CD would be something cool for him to do at some point in the next two decades.

[Heather Styles]

Yeah, he should either go on Countdown or maybe become a racing driver.

[Tracey Anne Mills]

and I'm currently waiting on a recording date

Then I do beg your pardon - I was under the impression you were one of the non-interested ones. Really pleased to hear this.

OK, could be sooner than anticipated with a bit of luck - and I'll be wishing you lots of it

Good Luck Stephen

[George Pryn]

I also took a look at some other notable legends of the game who scored in the 700s and 800s. Here they are in series chronological order:-

[S47] Chris W. (875) = Max of 1085 [81%]
[S47] Tom H. (850) = Max of 1015 [84%]
[S50] Jim B. (756) = Max of 978 [77%]
[S50] Chris C. (858) = Max of 1045 [82%]
[S51] Sweyn K. (765) = Max of 972 [79%]
[S52] Paul G. (846) = Max of 1010 [84%]
[S54] Jon C. (856) = Max of 1024 [84%]
[S54] Matthew S. (850) = Max of 1037 [82%]
[S54] Conor T. (890) = Max of 1021 [87%]
[S55] Steven Briers. (843) = Max of 1043 [81%]
[S55] Richard B. (820) = Max of 1037 [79%]
[S58] David O’D. (880) = Max of 995 [88%]
[S59] Martin B. (809) = Max of 972 [83%]
-----------------------apterous-----------------------
[S60] Neill Z. (758) = Max of 974 [78%]
[S61] Chris D. (892) = Max of 1013 [88%]
[S61] Innis C. (861) = Max of 1011 [85%]
[S62] Oliver G. (802) = Max of 978 [82%]
[S63] Eoin M. (898) = Max of 1036 [87%]
[S64] Ed McC. (896) = Max of 979 [92%]
[S65] Mark D. (824) = Max of 998 [83%]
[S65] Graeme C. (813) = Max of 980 [83%]
[S66] Jonathan R. (850) = Max of 982 [87%]
[S66] Jack W. (818) = Max of 1030 [79%]
------------------new 15-rounder-------------------
[S68] Andy P. (889) = Max of 1036 [86%]
[S71] George F. (832) = Max of 988 [84%]
------------------expanded ODO-------------------
[S73] Stephen Briggs. (883) = Max of 1035 [85%]
[S74] Robin McK. (888) = Max of 1119 [79%]
[S74] Ann D. (884) = Max of 1069 [83%]
[S75] Martin H. (830) = Max of 1069 [78%]
[S75] Jamie W. (825) = Max of 1070 [77%]
[S75] Andrew M. (809) = Max of 1099 [74%]
[S75] Annie H. (775) = Max of 1058 [73%]


From this set of data, these trends interest me the most:-
1. The number of top talents who can achieve 85% or higher of the available max has more than doubled (you could argue, more than tripled) since the advent of apterous.
2. Since the switch to the ODO, it has become incredibly rare (has it even happened once?) that an octomax total is lower than 1000.

Corrected

[Gavin Chipper]

Is Ray Wilding going to go on? He's someone that could have made L'oisleatch's list.

[Tom]

I've just come across this thread and it's an interesting read and discussion. My short answer is yes, I think it has the potential to happen and within the next 5 years.

I think things like this have been made possible with Apterous and I think what you need is someone with some good fortune on the letters, someone who'll get 7-8 conundrums, and probably go safe picking typically 1 large and their opponents doing the same.

Without Apterous, I think it is debatable whether Julian Fell's record would have been beaten by now. I would have guessed you would have had 1, maybe 2 people coming close to it, but ultimately, if I was a betting person, I'd have said no. I speak with Craig Beevers and we both agreed he was probably the closest in ability to Julian pre-Apterous.

With Apterous however, I think it was just a matter of time before Julian was going to be outscored.

I don't watch Countdown anymore or check this forum much, but I do keep tabs time to time on the brilliant Wiki and noticed the Octochamps haven't been overly high scoring in comparison to recent times. If my memory is right, I believe Dylan has held the record for I'm guessing 3 years? Which is even better given the amount of good players there have been. Due to Apterous I think should there be players coming through like there have been over the last 5 years or so, then someone I think might do it in the next 3 years, maybe one more following that who may surpass 1000.

[Gavin Chipper]

I speak with Craig Beevers and we both agreed he was probably the closest in ability to Julian pre-Apterous.

Well he would say that! I would say that Paul Gallen was just as good in his CoC, and Conor was at a similar level.

[Elliott Mellor]

Just going to put my point of view across in here.

While I don't doubt that 1000 is possible for a player to achieve in an octorun, indeed most octoruns have maxes of 1000+ available due to the new dictionary words, I still can't really envisage it happening on the show. The reasons for this are:

1) Most big apterites have been on the show already, and unless a new surge of people sign up to apterous and we get a steady flow of people, the number of shots at 1000+ on the show is going to be minimal. If the majority of apterites who have been on have not achieved it (or even got extremely close ie 990s), then I don't see any reason why the minority will either. Also, it seems a bit of a push to go from 974 to 1000, since it's quite a big leap in terms of skill level. It would therefore require an unbelievably large amount of practise to even have a reasonable shot at it, which most people simply aren't going to want to put in. Sure, most apterites who go on the show are going to want to win a series, but I doubt very many - if any at all - are going to be too fussed about their octototal. People aren't going to wait a few more years to apply just to be a bit better and have a bit better shot at a 1000+ octototal, if they are already at a standard that could feasibly win them a series.

2) While people on here might achieve an octototal of 1000+ when playing along at home, it's probably quite a bit different in the studio. Looking at my mocktorun stats playing against the TV contestants, I see that I have breached 1000 a few times, however that's in the comfort of my own home and that's going to make me more relaxed and more able to spot something like PRUINOSE, which could easily be missed under studio pressure.

3) It would require a run of relatively bad opponents and a fair few 9s available, which could easily not happen. People who get on TV have had to pass an audition and therefore aren't usually that bad. It's quite feasible that a promising apterite could come up against a player worth their salt who might rob them of points. It could be that they face one or more opponents who pick a difficult numbers selection like 6 small which is going to lower their chance of getting 40 points from the numbers in a game, which are really crucial. Or they might beat them to the conundrum, which is 10 useful points for bulking your score. It might even be that they are unlucky enough to have some impossible numbers games in their run, which will massively deplete the max available if it's impossible to even get within 10. Also, the letters might be particularly unproductive, which is not going to be good if you are needing to average 125 a game, since you're looking at needing a goodly amount of 9s. I know when I went to watch a recording of Countdown recently, the letters in the games I watched were particularly bad, and certainly not games you'd want to have to endure in your run. You might be the most skilled player in the world, but nothing can stop you from having bad luck. Martin Hurst had a game with a max of 110 in his run, which if you had would mean you would need at least 890 available in your other games, or an average of 127.14, which is typically a score that needs at least one nine, and to get that from 7 games is unlikely.

[Gavin Chipper]

A few people have brought up that most big Apterites have been on the show already. But I think that's always been the case. There's never been a time when there have been so many new people come along that there's anywhere near as many of them as top players who have been on. Top players come along every so often and will probably continue to do so, rather than a load turning up at once.

Another point, which is quite a good one, is that it would take tremendous restraint to just wait until you're good enough to get 1000 before going on. Most Apterites who consider themselves good enough to get 900 are likely to apply to go on some time soon. Jack Worsley is a player who could possibly be a 1000 contender if he went on now, and he has already been on and got "only" 818 (it might have been a bit higher with the new format though).

Having said that, because the standard has crept up over the years, people might consider 800 "not good enough" now, when a few years ago they wouldn't. But to consider 900 not good enough, and to wait until you're good enough for 1000 is another league entirely. And not many people are likely to get 1000 even if they make that their goal.

But it only takes one, and I certainly think it's not beyond the realms of possibility.

[Elliott Mellor]

It's not beyond the realms of possibility, but there are so many limiting factors that can affect your score. You're more likely to score a higher octototal if you say, film 3 games at the end of a series and then have a month's break before your next recordings than you are if you film 8 across 2 days, as tiredness will kick in and you will likely miss some words you would normally spot. As has been discussed opponent levels affect what you score and just the availability of points. You might also be in unlucky enough to have to face some really tough conundrums, one I particularly recall from last series was FENUGREEK, which stumped everyone in the studio, never mind both contestants. It's also possible your opponent might risk a dodgy 9 in the first round which turns out to be valid and puts you on the backfoot and playing catch up. Also, one very unlikely scenario is that you offer some really obscure words which are incorrectly disallowed by Susie, and could lower your points total or even cause you to lose. For instance Kirk nearly had HEDARIM disallowed in one of his games, until Susie found it a while later, and who's to say that Jonny Rye couldn't have octoed and breached 1000?

[Stephen R]

Now that my run's aired (spoilers follow to warn those who haven't seen the episodes), I thought I'd include some more stats and opinions on how likely 1000 is to happen.

(SPOILERS FOLLOW)
















I ended up getting 915 - a good octototal, but obviously nowhere near 1000. Full stats are:

Score - 915
Maxes - 85
Max Score - 1021
% Score - 89.62%
Nines Gotten - 2
Nines Available - 4

Breakdown by format:

Letters: 50/80 maxes, 537/621 score
Numbers: 28/32 maxes, 308/320 score
Conundrums: 7/8 maxes, 70/80 score

Overall my opponents were co-operative. None of them went for 6 small or 4 large, and there was only one letters round where I had a valid word and they had a better word. I did have a few disallowed words, and a couple of chickened words, but they were probably only worth an extra 20-30 points in total. The letters selections were not co-operative, though. Only 4 nines were available (TRIGAMIES, PRESOAKED, RESETTING, TRILOGUES) over the 8 games, and some of the letters rounds were horrible. The octomax of 1021 is quite low by recent standards - I'd have needed a Robin McKay-esque set of letters to have a shot at 1000.

In terms of % score and number of maxes, I actually played better in the studio than I average on apterous, averaging 10.625 maxes per game. The problem was the maxes I didn't get were costly (missed conundrum/nines, disallowed words).

I recorded on the last two days before the latest dictionary update (the one that was added to apterous earlier this month). This only affected one letters round in my run, and only increased the octomax by 1, so it wasn't a signifcant factor.

I still think that 1000 is at least possible to get in an octorun, but whoever does it will need to be both better and luckier than I was. At any rate, I'm happy with what I scored and how I played.

[Gavin Chipper]

By the way, to join the 1000 club in parkrun, you need to run it in 16:40 or faster. (Or run 1000 parkruns to join the "official" 1000 club).

[L'oisleatch McGraw]

won't happen

If you wanna put your money where your mouth is, €10 says it happens before S80, and €100 says it happens before the end of the year 2020.


It is interesting reading back over this thread more than 7 months later... here are a few things that stand out:-

1. Of the known Apterites we still have Matthew B and Perhaps Barry B and Johhny C's octoruns to look forward to. They are all likely to win 8 games and to score rather well... so who knows?

2. It now seems Zarte will be allowed back before S80, so there is another major contender right there.

3. Elliott Mellor, to my mind. has a decent shot at this now too. When this thread was started, he was not yet an Apterite. Now he has reached a level where he can score close to 1000 on a Mocktorun, and he's still improving. Who knows who else might enter the frame in the next 6 months?

4. As ever, the chance is there that some of the seriously talented ones who have declared themselves 'out' as far as a TV appearance is concerned, might have a change of heart and surprise us all.


The 2017-2020 period is shaping up to being a very interesting time to be a Countdown fan.

[Elliott Mellor]

Not sure I'd put money on it, but I think it's doable providing that the people who might be classed as being able to do it get lucky with a run of high maxes and opponents who don't nick the con off them etc.

Though it must be said that there was probably no more than a handful of people who are going to go on who might feasibly have a shot at it, and if none of them do it it might sway my opinion slightly.

[Zarte Siempre]

2. It now seems Zarte will be allowed back before S80, so there is another major contender right there.

Yeah, but I have 0 interest in going for it. If I had a shot at it with a safe 8 and a safe 9 in round 118, I'd take the 8. My 2 priorities are 1) enjoying myself and 2) not blobbing rounds, so I wouldn't bother even considering my name in this.

[Elliott Mellor]

2. It now seems Zarte will be allowed back before S80, so there is another major contender right there.

.....If I had a shot at it with a safe 8 and a safe 9 in round 118, I'd take the 8.......

If your 9 was safe, why would you not go for it...?

[Zarte Siempre]

2. It now seems Zarte will be allowed back before S80, so there is another major contender right there.

Yeah, but I have 0 interest in going for it. If I had a shot at it with a safe 8 and a risky 9 in round 118, I'd take the 8. My 2 priorities are 1) enjoying myself and 2) not blobbing rounds, so I wouldn't bother even considering my name in this.

Heh, edited, ta.

[L'oisleatch McGraw]

Yeah, but I have 0 interest in going for it.

Cool customer!
I think the bookies odds just shortened.

The raw talent, the regular apto-practise, and the timing of your forthcoming run (in relation to your current pro-Rank)... it does bode well. And the thing about safe vs risky 9's, is that you would have a vast array of 9's packed into your arsenal that, while risky for many, are safe for you. This would presumably include many of the newer additions up to and including the May 2017 update. The chances of spotting a few in competition are rather high.

If you genuinely are able to keep your cool & enjoy the experience under the pressure of the studio lights, not blob rounds, and keep thoughts of the records books far from your mind... that actually helps and not hinders imo. I dunno if you're a tennis fan, but if you remember Serena Williams in the 2015 US Open Semi-Final... there is an example where being on the verge of setting records really got inside someone's head in a bad way One way or another, I'll be rooting for you to top the 974, though obviously, so long as it goes better than the S69 outing, and you get into the Series finals... that would be a fair achievement.

I wonder would any of the stats fans know: when was the last time a person was #1 in Pro-Ranks while their show(s) were being recorded? I know that the current Octototal record-holder (Dylan) went on a few months before he hit his peak. (I think he was #6 at the time of recording... but am not 100% sure on that).