Do you know what you know?

Cerebral distractions of every kind, mostly but not exclusively Countdown-related.

Moderator: Michael Wallace

Post Reply
User avatar
Jon O'Neill
Ginger Ninja
Posts: 4137
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:45 am
Location: London, UK

Do you know what you know?

Post by Jon O'Neill » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:32 pm

http://confidence.success-equation.com/

I don't.

Code: Select all

Calibration score
Mean confidence: 67.20%
Actual percent correct: 54.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 72.96%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 60.43%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
27 correct out of 50 questions answered (54.00%)
13 correct out of 28 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (46.43%)
5 correct out of 13 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (38.46%)
9 correct out of 9 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (100.00%)

Thomas Cappleman
Acolyte
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:42 pm

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Thomas Cappleman » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:18 pm

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 76.00%

Actual percent correct: 88.00%

You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 77.05%

Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 68.33%

You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
44 correct out of 50 questions answered (88.00%)

17 correct out of 19 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (89.47%)

4 correct out of 7 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (57.14%)

23 correct out of 24 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (95.83%)
So when I think I have no idea on a true/false question I'm probably right, but when I think I have a bit of an idea I don't (admittedly with an insignificant data sample).

Gavin Chipper
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 7863
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:00 pm

This is a stupid test and doesn't test whether you have the right amount of confidence in your knowledge in a sensible way. Take this example:

"Wilt Chamberlain was shorter than 7 feet"

I mean, I have no idea really, but most people are well under 7 feet tall aren't they? So really I'm answering on the basis of what I think the psychology of the questioner is, rather than anything else.

This is likely to have very little correlation with how people behave in their lives when it comes to over- or under-stating their confidence in their assertions.

User avatar
Graeme Cole
Series 65 Champion
Posts: 1474
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:59 pm

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Graeme Cole » Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:53 pm

Code: Select all

Calibration score
Mean confidence: 71.60%
Actual percent correct: 70.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 76.00%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 61.33%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
35 correct out of 50 questions answered (70.00%)
12 correct out of 23 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (52.17%)
10 correct out of 12 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (83.33%)
13 correct out of 15 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (86.67%)

User avatar
Ben Wilson
Legend
Posts: 3714
Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:05 pm
Location: North Hykeham

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Ben Wilson » Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:51 pm

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 87.80%
Actual percent correct: 74.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 93.51%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 71.54%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
37 correct out of 50 questions answered (74.00%)
1 correct out of 7 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (14.29%)
5 correct out of 9 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (55.56%)
31 correct out of 34 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (91.18%)
What I can basically take away from this is that I'm the general knowledge equivalent of Leeroy Jenkins.

Edit: Also feel this would be a more accurate test if it was timed.

User avatar
Jon O'Neill
Ginger Ninja
Posts: 4137
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:45 am
Location: London, UK

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Jon O'Neill » Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:08 pm

Gavin Chipper wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:00 pm
This is a stupid test and doesn't test whether you have the right amount of confidence in your knowledge in a sensible way. Take this example:

"Wilt Chamberlain was shorter than 7 feet"

I mean, I have no idea really, but most people are well under 7 feet tall aren't they? So really I'm answering on the basis of what I think the psychology of the questioner is, rather than anything else.
This is likely to have very little correlation with how people behave in their lives when it comes to over- or under-stating their confidence in their assertions.
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:00 pm
This is retarded. So you think False but you don't know... so put False and 50%.
So? Just do it.

Gavin Chipper
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 7863
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:17 pm

Sort out your quoting.

Conor
Series 54 Champion
Posts: 411
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 7:29 am
Location: Luton - UK

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Conor » Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:08 pm

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 75.60%
Actual percent correct: 70.00%


Mean confidence on correct answers: 78.57%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 68.67%

35 correct out of 50 questions answered (70.00%)
8 correct out of 15 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (53.33%)
14 correct out of 20 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (70.00%)
13 correct out of 15 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (86.67%)
Seems I'm a bit overconfident, and especially when I think I'm sure.

User avatar
Thomas Carey
Devotee
Posts: 911
Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
Location: North-West of Bradford
Contact:

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Thomas Carey » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:52 am

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 76.00%

Actual percent correct: 80.00%

You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 79.25%

Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 63.00%

You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
40 correct out of 50 questions answered (80.00%)

13 correct out of 20 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (65.00%)

7 correct out of 10 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (70.00%)

20 correct out of 20 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (100.00%)

Image
signature

User avatar
Jon O'Neill
Ginger Ninja
Posts: 4137
Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:45 am
Location: London, UK

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Jon O'Neill » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:06 pm

So far:

Image

Gavin Chipper
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 7863
Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Gavin Chipper » Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:20 pm

Jon O'Neill wrote:
Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:06 pm
So far:

Image
Nice work.

User avatar
Mark James
Kiloposter
Posts: 1081
Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2010 3:21 pm
Location: Dublin

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Mark James » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:35 pm

Did it the other day but forgot to copy and paste results. If I remember correctly I got 30 right, answered 12 at 100% and got one of those wrong. Everything else I gave 50% confidence to.

User avatar
Ian Volante
Postmaster General
Posts: 3248
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:15 pm
Location: Edinburgh
Contact:

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Ian Volante » Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:14 pm

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 85.20%

Actual percent correct: 88.00%

You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 87.73%

Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 66.67%

You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score


44 correct out of 50 questions answered (88.00%)

7 correct out of 10 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (70.00%)

8 correct out of 10 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (80.00%)

29 correct out of 30 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (96.67%)
meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles

User avatar
Matt Morrison
Post-apocalypse
Posts: 7233
Joined: Wed Oct 22, 2008 2:27 pm
Location: London
Contact:

Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Matt Morrison » Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:25 pm

Ian wins.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests