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Do you know what you know?

Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:32 pm
by Jon O'Neill
http://confidence.success-equation.com/

I don't.

Code: Select all

Calibration score
Mean confidence: 67.20%
Actual percent correct: 54.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 72.96%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 60.43%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
27 correct out of 50 questions answered (54.00%)
13 correct out of 28 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (46.43%)
5 correct out of 13 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (38.46%)
9 correct out of 9 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (100.00%)

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:18 pm
by Thomas Cappleman

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 76.00%

Actual percent correct: 88.00%

You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 77.05%

Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 68.33%

You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
44 correct out of 50 questions answered (88.00%)

17 correct out of 19 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (89.47%)

4 correct out of 7 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (57.14%)

23 correct out of 24 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (95.83%)
So when I think I have no idea on a true/false question I'm probably right, but when I think I have a bit of an idea I don't (admittedly with an insignificant data sample).

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:00 pm
by Gavin Chipper
This is a stupid test and doesn't test whether you have the right amount of confidence in your knowledge in a sensible way. Take this example:

"Wilt Chamberlain was shorter than 7 feet"

I mean, I have no idea really, but most people are well under 7 feet tall aren't they? So really I'm answering on the basis of what I think the psychology of the questioner is, rather than anything else.

This is likely to have very little correlation with how people behave in their lives when it comes to over- or under-stating their confidence in their assertions.

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:53 pm
by Graeme Cole

Code: Select all

Calibration score
Mean confidence: 71.60%
Actual percent correct: 70.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 76.00%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 61.33%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
35 correct out of 50 questions answered (70.00%)
12 correct out of 23 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (52.17%)
10 correct out of 12 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (83.33%)
13 correct out of 15 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (86.67%)

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:51 pm
by Ben Wilson

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 87.80%
Actual percent correct: 74.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 93.51%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 71.54%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
37 correct out of 50 questions answered (74.00%)
1 correct out of 7 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (14.29%)
5 correct out of 9 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (55.56%)
31 correct out of 34 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (91.18%)
What I can basically take away from this is that I'm the general knowledge equivalent of Leeroy Jenkins.

Edit: Also feel this would be a more accurate test if it was timed.

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:08 pm
by Jon O'Neill
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:00 pm
This is a stupid test and doesn't test whether you have the right amount of confidence in your knowledge in a sensible way. Take this example:

"Wilt Chamberlain was shorter than 7 feet"

I mean, I have no idea really, but most people are well under 7 feet tall aren't they? So really I'm answering on the basis of what I think the psychology of the questioner is, rather than anything else.
This is likely to have very little correlation with how people behave in their lives when it comes to over- or under-stating their confidence in their assertions.
Gavin Chipper wrote:
Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:00 pm
This is retarded. So you think False but you don't know... so put False and 50%.
So? Just do it.

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:17 pm
by Gavin Chipper
Sort out your quoting.

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:08 pm
by Conor

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 75.60%
Actual percent correct: 70.00%


Mean confidence on correct answers: 78.57%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 68.67%

35 correct out of 50 questions answered (70.00%)
8 correct out of 15 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (53.33%)
14 correct out of 20 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (70.00%)
13 correct out of 15 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (86.67%)
Seems I'm a bit overconfident, and especially when I think I'm sure.

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:52 am
by Thomas Carey

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 76.00%

Actual percent correct: 80.00%

You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 79.25%

Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 63.00%

You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
40 correct out of 50 questions answered (80.00%)

13 correct out of 20 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (65.00%)

7 correct out of 10 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (70.00%)

20 correct out of 20 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (100.00%)

Image

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:06 pm
by Jon O'Neill
So far:

Image

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:20 pm
by Gavin Chipper
Jon O'Neill wrote:
Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:06 pm
So far:

Image
Nice work.

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:35 pm
by Mark James
Did it the other day but forgot to copy and paste results. If I remember correctly I got 30 right, answered 12 at 100% and got one of those wrong. Everything else I gave 50% confidence to.

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:14 pm
by Ian Volante

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 85.20%

Actual percent correct: 88.00%

You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 87.73%

Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 66.67%

You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score


44 correct out of 50 questions answered (88.00%)

7 correct out of 10 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (70.00%)

8 correct out of 10 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (80.00%)

29 correct out of 30 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (96.67%)

Re: Do you know what you know?

Posted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:25 pm
by Matt Morrison
Ian wins.