Do you know what you know?

Cerebral distractions of every kind, mostly but not exclusively Countdown-related.

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Jon O'Neill
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Do you know what you know?

Post by Jon O'Neill »

http://confidence.success-equation.com/

I don't.

Code: Select all

Calibration score
Mean confidence: 67.20%
Actual percent correct: 54.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 72.96%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 60.43%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
27 correct out of 50 questions answered (54.00%)
13 correct out of 28 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (46.43%)
5 correct out of 13 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (38.46%)
9 correct out of 9 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (100.00%)
Thomas Cappleman
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Thomas Cappleman »

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 76.00%

Actual percent correct: 88.00%

You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 77.05%

Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 68.33%

You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
44 correct out of 50 questions answered (88.00%)

17 correct out of 19 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (89.47%)

4 correct out of 7 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (57.14%)

23 correct out of 24 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (95.83%)
So when I think I have no idea on a true/false question I'm probably right, but when I think I have a bit of an idea I don't (admittedly with an insignificant data sample).
Gavin Chipper
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Gavin Chipper »

This is a stupid test and doesn't test whether you have the right amount of confidence in your knowledge in a sensible way. Take this example:

"Wilt Chamberlain was shorter than 7 feet"

I mean, I have no idea really, but most people are well under 7 feet tall aren't they? So really I'm answering on the basis of what I think the psychology of the questioner is, rather than anything else.

This is likely to have very little correlation with how people behave in their lives when it comes to over- or under-stating their confidence in their assertions.
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Graeme Cole
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Graeme Cole »

Code: Select all

Calibration score
Mean confidence: 71.60%
Actual percent correct: 70.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 76.00%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 61.33%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
35 correct out of 50 questions answered (70.00%)
12 correct out of 23 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (52.17%)
10 correct out of 12 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (83.33%)
13 correct out of 15 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (86.67%)
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Ben Wilson
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Ben Wilson »

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 87.80%
Actual percent correct: 74.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 93.51%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 71.54%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
37 correct out of 50 questions answered (74.00%)
1 correct out of 7 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (14.29%)
5 correct out of 9 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (55.56%)
31 correct out of 34 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (91.18%)
What I can basically take away from this is that I'm the general knowledge equivalent of Leeroy Jenkins.

Edit: Also feel this would be a more accurate test if it was timed.
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Jon O'Neill
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Jon O'Neill »

Gavin Chipper wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:00 pm This is a stupid test and doesn't test whether you have the right amount of confidence in your knowledge in a sensible way. Take this example:

"Wilt Chamberlain was shorter than 7 feet"

I mean, I have no idea really, but most people are well under 7 feet tall aren't they? So really I'm answering on the basis of what I think the psychology of the questioner is, rather than anything else.
This is likely to have very little correlation with how people behave in their lives when it comes to over- or under-stating their confidence in their assertions.
Gavin Chipper wrote: Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:00 pm This is retarded. So you think False but you don't know... so put False and 50%.
So? Just do it.
Gavin Chipper
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Gavin Chipper »

Sort out your quoting.
Conor
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Conor »

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 75.60%
Actual percent correct: 70.00%


Mean confidence on correct answers: 78.57%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 68.67%

35 correct out of 50 questions answered (70.00%)
8 correct out of 15 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (53.33%)
14 correct out of 20 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (70.00%)
13 correct out of 15 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (86.67%)
Seems I'm a bit overconfident, and especially when I think I'm sure.
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Thomas Carey
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Thomas Carey »

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 76.00%

Actual percent correct: 80.00%

You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 79.25%

Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 63.00%

You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score
40 correct out of 50 questions answered (80.00%)

13 correct out of 20 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (65.00%)

7 correct out of 10 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (70.00%)

20 correct out of 20 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (100.00%)

Image
cheers maus
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Jon O'Neill
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Jon O'Neill »

So far:

Image
Gavin Chipper
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Gavin Chipper »

Jon O'Neill wrote: Tue Sep 26, 2017 1:06 pm So far:

Image
Nice work.
Mark James
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Mark James »

Did it the other day but forgot to copy and paste results. If I remember correctly I got 30 right, answered 12 at 100% and got one of those wrong. Everything else I gave 50% confidence to.
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Ian Volante
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Ian Volante »

Code: Select all

Mean confidence: 85.20%

Actual percent correct: 88.00%

You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.

Mean confidence on correct answers: 87.73%

Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 66.67%

You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.

Quiz score


44 correct out of 50 questions answered (88.00%)

7 correct out of 10 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (70.00%)

8 correct out of 10 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (80.00%)

29 correct out of 30 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (96.67%)
meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles
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Matt Morrison
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Re: Do you know what you know?

Post by Matt Morrison »

Ian wins.
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