Cerebral distractions of every kind, mostly but not exclusively Countdownrelated.
Moderator: Michael Wallace

Jon O'Neill
 Ginger Ninja
 Posts: 4178
 Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:45 am
 Location: London, UK
Post
by Jon O'Neill » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:32 pm
http://confidence.successequation.com/
I don't.
Code: Select all
Calibration score
Mean confidence: 67.20%
Actual percent correct: 54.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.
Mean confidence on correct answers: 72.96%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 60.43%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.
Quiz score
27 correct out of 50 questions answered (54.00%)
13 correct out of 28 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (46.43%)
5 correct out of 13 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (38.46%)
9 correct out of 9 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (100.00%)

Thomas Cappleman
 Acolyte
 Posts: 190
 Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2008 9:42 pm
Post
by Thomas Cappleman » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:18 pm
Code: Select all
Mean confidence: 76.00%
Actual percent correct: 88.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.
Mean confidence on correct answers: 77.05%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 68.33%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.
Quiz score
44 correct out of 50 questions answered (88.00%)
17 correct out of 19 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (89.47%)
4 correct out of 7 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (57.14%)
23 correct out of 24 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (95.83%)
So when I think I have no idea on a true/false question I'm probably right, but when I think I have a bit of an idea I don't (admittedly with an insignificant data sample).

Gavin Chipper
 Postapocalypse
 Posts: 8715
 Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:37 pm
Post
by Gavin Chipper » Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:00 pm
This is a stupid test and doesn't test whether you have the right amount of confidence in your knowledge in a sensible way. Take this example:
"Wilt Chamberlain was shorter than 7 feet"
I mean, I have no idea really, but most people are well under 7 feet tall aren't they? So really I'm answering on the basis of what I think the psychology of the questioner is, rather than anything else.
This is likely to have very little correlation with how people behave in their lives when it comes to over or understating their confidence in their assertions.

Graeme Cole
 Series 65 Champion
 Posts: 1585
 Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:59 pm
Post
by Graeme Cole » Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:53 pm
Code: Select all
Calibration score
Mean confidence: 71.60%
Actual percent correct: 70.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.
Mean confidence on correct answers: 76.00%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 61.33%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.
Quiz score
35 correct out of 50 questions answered (70.00%)
12 correct out of 23 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (52.17%)
10 correct out of 12 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (83.33%)
13 correct out of 15 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (86.67%)

Ben Wilson
 Legend
 Posts: 3901
 Joined: Fri Jan 11, 2008 5:05 pm
 Location: North Hykeham
Post
by Ben Wilson » Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:51 pm
Code: Select all
Mean confidence: 87.80%
Actual percent correct: 74.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.
Mean confidence on correct answers: 93.51%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 71.54%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.
Quiz score
37 correct out of 50 questions answered (74.00%)
1 correct out of 7 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (14.29%)
5 correct out of 9 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (55.56%)
31 correct out of 34 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (91.18%)
What I can basically take away from this is that I'm the general knowledge equivalent of
Leeroy Jenkins.
Edit: Also feel this would be a more accurate test if it was timed.

Jon O'Neill
 Ginger Ninja
 Posts: 4178
 Joined: Tue Jan 22, 2008 12:45 am
 Location: London, UK
Post
by Jon O'Neill » Mon Sep 25, 2017 8:08 pm
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:00 pm
This is a stupid test and doesn't test whether you have the right amount of confidence in your knowledge in a sensible way. Take this example:
"Wilt Chamberlain was shorter than 7 feet"
I mean, I have no idea really, but most people are well under 7 feet tall aren't they? So really I'm answering on the basis of what I think the psychology of the questioner is, rather than anything else.
This is likely to have very little correlation with how people behave in their lives when it comes to over or understating their confidence in their assertions.
Gavin Chipper wrote: ↑Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:00 pm
This is retarded. So you think False but you don't know... so put False and 50%.
So? Just do it.

Conor
 Series 54 Champion
 Posts: 427
 Joined: Mon Jan 21, 2008 7:29 am
 Location: Luton  UK
Post
by Conor » Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:08 pm
Code: Select all
Mean confidence: 75.60%
Actual percent correct: 70.00%
Mean confidence on correct answers: 78.57%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 68.67%
35 correct out of 50 questions answered (70.00%)
8 correct out of 15 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (53.33%)
14 correct out of 20 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (70.00%)
13 correct out of 15 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (86.67%)
Seems I'm a bit overconfident, and especially when I think I'm sure.

Thomas Carey
 Kiloposter
 Posts: 1124
 Joined: Sun Jan 09, 2011 4:17 pm
 Location: NorthWest of Bradford

Contact:
Post
by Thomas Carey » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:52 am
Code: Select all
Mean confidence: 76.00%
Actual percent correct: 80.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.
Mean confidence on correct answers: 79.25%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 63.00%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.
Quiz score
40 correct out of 50 questions answered (80.00%)
13 correct out of 20 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (65.00%)
7 correct out of 10 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (70.00%)
20 correct out of 20 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (100.00%)
cheers maus

Mark James
 Kiloposter
 Posts: 1222
 Joined: Sat Oct 23, 2010 3:21 pm
 Location: Dublin
Post
by Mark James » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:35 pm
Did it the other day but forgot to copy and paste results. If I remember correctly I got 30 right, answered 12 at 100% and got one of those wrong. Everything else I gave 50% confidence to.

Ian Volante
 Postmaster General
 Posts: 3353
 Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2008 8:15 pm
 Location: Edinburgh

Contact:
Post
by Ian Volante » Wed Sep 27, 2017 12:14 pm
Code: Select all
Mean confidence: 85.20%
Actual percent correct: 88.00%
You want your mean confidence and actual score to be as close as possible.
Mean confidence on correct answers: 87.73%
Mean confidence on incorrect answers: 66.67%
You want your mean confidence to be low for incorrect answers and high for correct answers.
Quiz score
44 correct out of 50 questions answered (88.00%)
7 correct out of 10 questions answered with low (50 or 60%) confidence (70.00%)
8 correct out of 10 questions answered with medium (70% or 80%) confidence (80.00%)
29 correct out of 30 questions answered with high (90 or 100%) confidence (96.67%)
meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles meles
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