Search found 13276 matches
- Sun Feb 03, 2008 11:16 pm
- Forum: Countdown - General
- Topic: Ratio of letters to numbers
- Replies: 20
- Views: 9252
Ratio of letters to numbers
I think Jono's octochamp run proves that if you can nail your opponent on the numbers then you can afford to make shit up in about half of the letters rounds and still win comfortably. But joking aside, if you are the champion you only choose once, and it's very likely that the other two games will...
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:18 pm
- Forum: Countdown - Historical recaps
- Topic: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
- Replies: 38
- Views: 6736
Re: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
I used it because Soo has got all the percentage of maximum scores for Ocotchamps on his website. Although I see no reason why it is a particularly bad statisitc to use, as opposed to just an averagely bad one (in that they're all bad). Care to explain? Well, player A gets the maximum in every lett...
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:46 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Heights
- Replies: 43
- Views: 7796
Re: Heights
Basically, the point being that if an infinite number of random Johns performed the same task, picking the comparison people at random, 6/11 of them (of the ones that were 5-4 up) would find that they were taller than the next person. Or if it doesn't make sense to talk about infinite, the proporti...
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 8:29 pm
- Forum: Countdown - Historical recaps
- Topic: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
- Replies: 38
- Views: 6736
Re: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
Charlie - re another Supreme Championship - Damian has firmly knocked that idea on the head, he said there definitely won't be another one on his watch. Though I bitterly argued with him at the time, I've come to realize that he was right - if there were another one, the vast majority of the contes...
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 8:14 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Heights
- Replies: 43
- Views: 7796
Re: Heights
I feel compelled to point out that 6/11 is merely a decent guess at the probability, and not the actual probability, which we couldn't possibly know from the information given. I'm not particularly bothered, just wanted to pick holes in someone else's puzzle. And because it would effect the answer ...
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:15 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Heights
- Replies: 43
- Views: 7796
Re: Heights
It's just based purely on the comparisons he's already made.Kirk Bevins wrote:I don't get this problem. Surely if he is say 190cm, then there are infinitely many heights below this and infinitely above this so the probability is 1/2 or 1 - but these are both wrong. I don't really understand your question.
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 7:12 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Heights
- Replies: 43
- Views: 7796
Re: Heights
Hmm. 6/11? I'm not too sure, and I can a potential flaw with what I've done, but it's the best I've got. What's your reasoning for this? Call john J, and anyone else X. You can write it out as |X|X|X|X|X|J|X|X|X|X| | is where the next person must go (since there can't be two people with the same he...
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 2:18 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: The Bus Journey
- Replies: 7
- Views: 3513
Re: The Bus Journey
Again I may as well state the obvious. Is it 10? I can't see any way of determining any other answer with the data we're given. Nope. I would've thought 9, given that he's the tenth person and each person gets on independently of all the others. But maybe I need to think about this more carefully. ...
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 1:58 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Heights
- Replies: 43
- Views: 7796
Re: Heights
Nope.Ben Pugh wrote:1/2?
Nope!Joseph Bolas wrote:This may sound weird but is there a 100% chance (so 1/1) that the next guy is shorter than he is?
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 1:57 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Heights
- Replies: 43
- Views: 7796
Re: Heights
I have worked this out, and the figure does seem wrong, but I will post what I got anyway (on the very very slim chance I may be right :lol:): Out of the 1024 possible combinations, only 512 can end with a short person. There are a total of 126 combinations out of the remaining 512, where there are...
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 1:56 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Heights
- Replies: 43
- Views: 7796
Re: Heights
What's your reasoning for this?Conor wrote:Hmm. 6/11?
I'm not too sure, and I can a potential flaw with what I've done, but it's the best I've got.
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 1:26 am
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Heights
- Replies: 43
- Views: 7796
Re: Heights
If you were to take all the possibilits of 10 people regardless of height then it should be 1024? Then if you take all the combinations out of those 1024 where there are 6-small & 4 large (first 9 in any order, the 10th being short) then that number, over 1024, simplified (if possible), should ...
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 1:26 am
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Heights
- Replies: 43
- Views: 7796
Re: Heights
Nope.dinos_the_chemist wrote:This seems too obvious so is probably wrong but I may as well go ahead and say it. 5/9?
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:37 am
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: The Bus Journey
- Replies: 7
- Views: 3513
Re: The Bus Journey
Ah, it's me isn't it? It's that one isn't it, where you say "you're driving a bus", and then do all that other crazy shit, and then ask the driver's name, and you're supposed to be all like "wtf?!!1 the driver's name? but what about all the people getting on and off and that??!!"...
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:36 am
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Heights
- Replies: 43
- Views: 7796
Heights
John has no idea how tall he is relative to other people, so he decides to compare his height with some. After nine random comparisons, he is taller than five and shorter than four. Assuming that no two people are exactly the same height, what is the probability that he will be taller than the next ...
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:33 am
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: The Bus Journey
- Replies: 7
- Views: 3513
The Bus Journey
Every day there is a bus that travels from A to B, taking people who live at A to B. Each day, each resident of A has an equal chance of getting on the bus, and their chance of getting the bus is completely independent of anyone else. There are also thousands of residents of A, so by getting on the ...
- Sat Feb 02, 2008 12:18 am
- Forum: Countdown - Historical recaps
- Topic: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
- Replies: 38
- Views: 6736
Re: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
That's all somewhat pointless really. There's no point comparing live rounds, 'crucial' conundrums and other high pressure situtations with my games where I won comfortably because they're completely different. Yeah, alright. But it's the best comparison I could think of at the time. Most statistic...
- Fri Feb 01, 2008 5:23 pm
- Forum: Countdown - General
- Topic: Numbers game and running totals...
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4300
Re: Numbers game and running totals...
What about the rule on getting two zeros (say 4-4 and 5-5) and dividing them by each other and declaring the answer to be the total you are after?
- Fri Feb 01, 2008 5:15 pm
- Forum: Countdown - General
- Topic: Numbers game and running totals...
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4300
Re: Numbers game and running totals...
The intermediate results do have to be integers, though, which would be difficult to check otherwise. WTP calculated that this does actually make a few games impossible which would otherwise be possible, which is interesting. But in some cases it would be obvious that it always remains an integer, ...
- Fri Feb 01, 2008 5:11 pm
- Forum: Countdown - Historical recaps
- Topic: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
- Replies: 38
- Views: 6736
Re: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
Regarding Beevers v Gallen - looking at the Countdown Corral, Craig scored 92.1% of the possible in his Octochamp run and Paul 83.8%. Obviously this doesn't count as Paul Gallen's greatness is based on the premise that he improved massively for the CofC. So looking at those four games: 125/141 118/1...
- Fri Feb 01, 2008 4:51 pm
- Forum: Countdown - General
- Topic: Versus Par
- Replies: 46
- Views: 7907
Re: Versus Par
That still rewards plodders over flair players. My system? I don't see why really. Obviously the plodders are being rewarded in the particular rounds where the flair players have their words disallowed, but that's how it should be. I can't see any other way. However, the scoring system that we use ...
- Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:47 am
- Forum: Countdown - General
- Topic: Versus Par
- Replies: 46
- Views: 7907
Re: Versus Par
One last post for now - if this is about par, then if in your games you get a lot of easy distributions, you might always get the best word (say it's an 8) but there might be lots of 8s, so it might be par so you don't get anywhere. One way of doing it might be to have the letters games given a rank...
- Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:28 am
- Forum: Countdown - General
- Topic: Versus Par
- Replies: 46
- Views: 7907
Re: Versus Par
So you're saying that giving them 4 or 5 less than they had is preferable to giving them 1 or 2 more? Hmmmmm. Well, the point is that we don't know what they got. But the ranking score for number of letter doesn't have to be linear. As an example, you could have a scoring system where the ranking s...
- Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:18 am
- Forum: Countdown - Historical recaps
- Topic: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
- Replies: 38
- Views: 6736
Re: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
Julian, I know that you don't seem to like being mentioned alongside these other greats and say how you wouldn't take them to a crucial conundrum etc., but I think you've said yourself that you let yourself get out of practice so it's not necessarily indicative of you at your peak. There must be som...
- Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:10 am
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
Speaking of inifinity, I think it's quite funny that in a distribution such as the normal distribution where you always get a finite positive value for the density at that point, the average value (which must be infinitessimally small) must be lower than it is for any particular value!
- Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:07 am
- Forum: Countdown - General
- Topic: Versus Par
- Replies: 46
- Views: 7907
Re: Versus Par
If this is like the par score on UKGameshows, then one criticism is that it punishes disallowed words harshly. I don't think it does. If a player has an eight disallowed and their opponent gets a seven, then the program puts their offering down as a six (offering nonwords should be punished, but no...
- Fri Feb 01, 2008 12:01 am
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
I started to think about Benford's Law and wondered if I could use this at all. Completely irrelevant to the puzzle, but a quote from the Wikipedia article: Benford's law, also called the first-digit law, states that in lists of numbers from many real-life sources of data, the leading digit is 1 al...
- Thu Jan 31, 2008 11:54 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
It's amusing that in your explanation here, for the first two possibilities you blithely state that it's a 50/50 chance whether you're seeing the higher or lower of the two numbers, when that's the very thing you're trying to disprove... :shock: Is it? But I've been converted now though. If I pick ...
- Thu Jan 31, 2008 11:38 pm
- Forum: Countdown - Historical recaps
- Topic: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
- Replies: 38
- Views: 6736
Re: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
I think Stuart Solomons was also pretty impressive at being weird.Ginger Jono wrote:At their respective peaks, the best are Gallen and Beevers. The most impressive ever are Julian for his word defining and Hansford for being weird.
These are indisputable truths.
- Thu Jan 31, 2008 11:37 pm
- Forum: Countdown - Historical recaps
- Topic: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
- Replies: 38
- Views: 6736
Re: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
With the possible exception of Allan saldanha. Based only on the Saldanha games I've seen on The Countdown Page, I would say Paul Howe on the form he showed was a much stronger player; Saldanha did miss plenty but was also very capable of streaks of brilliance. Of course, Saldanha also gets a load ...
- Thu Jan 31, 2008 11:30 pm
- Forum: Countdown - Spoilers
- Topic: Spoilers for Tuesday 29th January 2008
- Replies: 42
- Views: 7792
Re: Spoilers for Tuesday 29th January 2008
Gevin/Gavin: your post is logical enough but you've answered your own question/point - DC have allowed the likes of PENURIES before so they're not going to be too dogmatic about these things. By the way that is NOT your cue to start bashing DC again as you have done so many times in the past... Wel...
- Thu Jan 31, 2008 11:26 pm
- Forum: Countdown - General
- Topic: Versus Par
- Replies: 46
- Views: 7907
Re: Versus Par
I'd be tempted to say that things average out over time and someone probably won't have harder games on average over a whole run than someone else, but then I think they do sometimes change the way the letters come out so some people do have it easier than others. I would say it's not a pointless ex...
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 11:48 pm
- Forum: Countdown - Historical recaps
- Topic: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
- Replies: 38
- Views: 6736
Re: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
Every player? There was once upon a time a series of polls on an old Yahoo group, but it didn't include every player, just about 72 of them.Ginger Jono wrote:Do a series of polls of every player ever, in knockout format.
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 11:39 pm
- Forum: Countdown - Historical recaps
- Topic: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
- Replies: 38
- Views: 6736
Re: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
Also the above post was written by the greatest untrophied player in the history of Countdown. With the possible exception of Allan saldanha. Ah sod it, there's only one answer. Gevin mate, can you please start a 'Greatest Countdowner ever' thread in the general forum/ I promise not to delete or lo...
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 10:43 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
Right, I've thought about this and it is right. Sorry Paul for doubting you. To explain in my own words: C1 os the number on the first card and C2 the number on the second. We have four possibilities: C1 and C2 are both higher than x - 50/50 chance of winning C1 and C2 are both lower than x - 50/50 ...
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 9:15 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
Any properly defined (ie its integral over the reals is one) distribution will work. Randomly drawn numbers implicitly come from such a distribution. Saying "what about other distributions" is kind of like saying "well what if 1=2?". Just doesn't make sense. All that's required ...
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 7:59 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
Also, I don't see why it would make any difference if I picked a number before or after seeing the first card. So I could make it better to pick higher or lower depending on what I felt like. But then I could have an opponent who is shown the same cards and always does the opposite of me. We can't ...
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 5:52 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
Actually it is correct, just picking 0 every time is a special case, which I was a bit too dismissive to realise as your justification was wrong. The correct solution is also significantly more general in that you could pick ANY number and it would still work, or pick a different number each time. ...
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 5:50 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
Also, I don't see why it would make any difference if I picked a number before or after seeing the first card. So I could make it better to pick higher or lower depending on what I felt like. But then I could have an opponent who is shown the same cards and always does the opposite of me. We can't b...
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 5:33 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
Yes! Well done mate. The only way this could be wrong is if your number never lies between my numbers, but since this happens with finite (although admittedly very small) probability, this is not the case. This sounds a bit shaky to me. I could pick my number to be zero. And then I would always go ...
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 5:27 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
Actually, there is a way to construct this so that you can't make inferences from previous games, unfortunately it's less easy to tell you why this is so, as the proof is rather non-elementary and technical. Well, you could tell us we have just one go at it. Or that our memories are wiped after eac...
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 1:00 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
the frivolous law of large numbers states that most numbers are very very large - surely that doesn't count as advanced mathematics? :P Haha, I've never heard that expression before. I have to admit that after you said that I spent 5 minutes feeling embarrassed because I couldn't figure out how to ...
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 12:56 am
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
Edit - Having said that, it should be symmetrical around any finite number Nope! Michael, no advanced mathematics is required for this problem. I think anyone on here could come up with the solution, given a suitable flash of insight. Well, I'm going to bed now, but I'll leave you with - do these n...
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 12:19 am
- Forum: Countdown - Historical recaps
- Topic: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
- Replies: 38
- Views: 6736
Re: Recap for 24 January 2003 - C of C XI Grand Final
Ah yes, Graham Nash and his shock win. To be honest I think he sort of hinted at it with his post with everyone's odds of winning. That's the sort of thing a winner does. Julian, you failing to win this CofC and Conor in the next - once someone said to me (on another non-Countdown forum actually) th...
- Wed Jan 30, 2008 12:06 am
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
There is no requirement for symmetry about zero. The answer you and Conor gave supposes that 0 is the "middle" of the numbers, which seems sensible at first glance but is actually false; for any number we can think of there are an infinity of numbers above it and an infinity below, so the...
- Tue Jan 29, 2008 11:36 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Higher or Lower
- Replies: 127
- Views: 39223
Re: Higher or Lower
I'm going to use my usual think-as-I-type method rather than thinking first. I've heard of something vaguely similar where there are two amounts of money and one is double the other and you "should" always swap because you'd average more by doing so. But I won't get into why that's silly h...
- Tue Jan 29, 2008 10:57 pm
- Forum: Countdown - General
- Topic: Official mass noun dispute thread
- Replies: 23
- Views: 4608
Re: Official mass noun dispute thread
Since I have just made a post about mass nouns elsewhere, I will link to it here as this is the home of the discussion. Sod it - I'll copy the whole post. http://www.c4countdown.co.uk/viewtopic.php?p=599&sid=1e265d7274d5b178dfdbd4b619e9bcef#p599 Re the point made by the master himself: ALIMONY i...
- Tue Jan 29, 2008 10:49 pm
- Forum: Countdown - Spoilers
- Topic: Spoilers for Tuesday 29th January 2008
- Replies: 42
- Views: 7792
Re: Spoilers for Tuesday 29th January 2008
Re the point made by the master himself: ALIMONY is indeed a mass noun, although of course that doesn't necessarily mean ALIMONIES wouldn't be allowed (it's a great spot incidentally - I certainly didn't think of it). Any views on whether DC would allow it, if a contestant offered it? If it helps, ...
- Tue Jan 29, 2008 10:06 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Monty Hall/Take A Deal
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4201
Re: Monty Hall/Take A Deal
Yes, people seem to agree with what I would say. Swap in the normal scenario and it's 50/50 in the other.
- Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:24 pm
- Forum: Countdown - General
- Topic: Numbers game and running totals...
- Replies: 10
- Views: 4300
Re: Numbers game and running totals...
As far as I understand there's no rule about knowing the running totals is there? It would seem a bizarre rule.
- Tue Jan 29, 2008 2:19 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Hat Trick
- Replies: 11
- Views: 5067
Re: Hat Trick
Correct Soo :D thats the best strategy (there are probably a few others with slight variations). I think I know the 4 people scenario you mean, Joseph (there's also a wall behind the front person right?) but I chose this one as its probably a bit more obscure (If not a bit ambiguously explained by ...
- Tue Jan 29, 2008 1:03 am
- Forum: Off-topic
- Topic: Suggestions thread?
- Replies: 41
- Views: 8112
Re: Suggestions thread?
Why has viewing the C4Countdown Yahoo Group become a members only pursuit? Obviously one can log in, but since posting is generally discouraged, it seems a bit of a waste of time if one just wants to browse posts.
- Mon Jan 28, 2008 2:14 pm
- Forum: Off-topic
- Topic: Suggestions thread?
- Replies: 41
- Views: 8112
Re: Suggestions thread?
Okay Gevin, I think I am judging you on posts I have read whilst lurking on your own Countdown group. You just came across as a splitter but I am happy to start off anew since this is a new site and petty arguments are best left to one side. **handshake** Excellent! I'm not 100% sure what a splitte...
- Sun Jan 27, 2008 11:56 pm
- Forum: Off-topic
- Topic: Caption Competition
- Replies: 13
- Views: 6736
Re: Caption Competition
It enabled two pringles to defy gravity and float to the top of a cup.Conor wrote:And Red Bull is supposed to give you energy...
- Sat Jan 26, 2008 3:01 pm
- Forum: Games and Puzzles
- Topic: Pirates Puzzle! (no Googling)
- Replies: 43
- Views: 22247
Re: Pirates Puzzle! (no Googling)
It's in the post you quoted.David O'Donnell wrote:Please post the answer Corby before I go insane.Corby wrote:I agree completely with this answerGevin-Gavin wrote:10: 0-0-0-2-2-2-2-1-0-91
Any four from the first seven pirates to get two coins.
Am I any closer?
- Sat Jan 26, 2008 2:48 pm
- Forum: Off-topic
- Topic: Suggestions thread?
- Replies: 41
- Views: 8112
Re: Suggestions thread?
I'm still considering merging Recaps with Spoilers. Maybe we can have a poll. If anything, I would merge spoilers with the general forum and leave the recaps. I had the idea that you had a separate recap forum so that it could be left uncluttered and someone could go and find a specific game easily...
- Thu Jan 24, 2008 6:58 pm
- Forum: Off-topic
- Topic: Suggestions thread?
- Replies: 41
- Views: 8112
Re: Suggestions thread?
What do you guys reckon? :mrgreen: I reckon a suggestion thread is a good idea. That's the only suggestion I liked though. Re-introducing spoiler space? Retarded, when we have the facility to get around such a crude technique. I think maybe the recap and spoiler threads could be merged with the day...
- Thu Jan 24, 2008 6:14 pm
- Forum: Off-topic
- Topic: Suggestions thread?
- Replies: 41
- Views: 8112
Re: Suggestions thread?
Oh my God!!! Are you seriously criticising the forum after making a point of critising the mailing list? You just want to cause trouble; your posts are endless and boring in the extreme: why don't you bog off? What is your problem? It's not a criticism, but a suggestion. Or at least a constructive ...
- Thu Jan 24, 2008 6:09 pm
- Forum: Off-topic
- Topic: Suggestions thread?
- Replies: 41
- Views: 8112
Re: Suggestions thread?
OK, so you're the opposite! Oh well, it's interesting to see what different people think.Joseph Bolas wrote:It would be ideal IMO to have at least the following in separate forums/subforums:
- Polls
Recaps
CO-Events
Spoilers
Photos
Non-Countdown Topics
- Thu Jan 24, 2008 4:37 pm
- Forum: Countdown - General
- Topic: Alison/Susie?
- Replies: 42
- Views: 10041
Re: Alison/Susie?
Alison doesn't have Susie's depth of knowledge, and I find Susie's occasional other-worldliness quite endearing. She will sometimes explain the meanings of words, but have no idea how to pronounce them, despite the fact that they are not excessively obscure. I have also seen Susie mispronounce word...